Return to Baseball Leftovers

Edinson Volquez - Is the End Near?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Edinson Volquez - Is the End Near?

Postby freeling_prideful » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:25 am

There have been a few long threads discussing Volquez in the last few months, but I figured it'd be good to devote a thread specifically to his recent struggles. Since pitching 2 stellar games against Boston at home and NYY away (cumulative 14 IP, 16 H + BB, 4 ER, 14 K = 2.57 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 9 K/9), Volquez has put up these bad lines:

@ Tor - 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 0 K (!) and 1 HR allowed
vs. Pit - 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
vs. Was - 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

In these last few starts, we've seen Volquez's high walk rate start to catch up to him, as he has failed to strand those runners at the ridiculous rates (90+%) that he was attaining early in the season. However, having watched most of his work in the Washington game and taken a look at the other 2 starts, I was really intrigued by his package of skills. Volquez combines a swing-and-miss fastball and changeup with a solid breaking ball and (most importantly) keeps everything LOW in the zone. Even in his bad game at Toronto, he was elevating very few pitches and the ones that got hit hard were around the knees (Rolen's homer, for instance). I believe that keeping the ball low explains how Volquez has been able to increase his GB rate dramatically this season, up to roughly 48%.

In doing this evaluation, I became more bullish on Edinson and actually pulled the trigger on a pretty substantial deal to get him (for Zambrano and JD Drew, mainly b/c all the red flags indicating a decline for Edinson are there for Zambrano too, and Big Z has a far worse strikeout rate).

I believe that he can maintain a 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP pace from here on out, while continuing to strike out 9+ batters per 9 innings. He should also notch 6-7 2nd half wins to get to 17-18 on the season.
freeling_prideful
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 495
Joined: 5 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Edinson Volquez - Is the End Near?

Postby dclark0699 » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:30 am

freeling_prideful wrote:Volquez has put up these bad lines:

vs. Was - 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K


This is a Quality Start haha. Yeah his walks are up and K's are done right now, but I think he will be fine. He's still young, he'll have his ups and downs.
Image
dclark0699
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1764
(Past Year: -11)
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Ohio State University

Re: Edinson Volquez - Is the End Near?

Postby freeling_prideful » Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:29 am

I'm just intrigued by Volquez's bad walk rate, since it doesn't seem to stem from a complete lack of command. He has the confidence to throw changeups in 3-1, 3-2 counts and really go after hitters, and all his stuff is down in the zone. Other guys who suffer from walk problems tend to have a problem where they overthrow and their front side flies open, so the ball goes high on the pitching arm side (so high and in for righties)...Volquez very rarely has pitches sail in that direction, though he did have the one yesterday that hit Balester in the hand on a bunt attempt. More frequently his misses happen down and away, and you need to have fair control of your mechanics for that to happen.
freeling_prideful
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 495
Joined: 5 Apr 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Edinson Volquez - Is the End Near?

Postby Yoda » Mon Jul 07, 2008 11:41 am

He should still be a dominant pitcher but his peripherals always suggested that his ERA will start climbing. I think he will settle around 3.00 ERA by season's end and you should expect a lot more starts like the recent ones mixed in with some dominant ones as the weather warms up and he starts getting tired.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21191
(Past Year: -153)
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: Edinson Volquez - Is the End Near?

Postby moochman » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:45 pm

Could it be he is going thru a tired arm phase? It's not unusual for some pitchers to do this around this time of year, no?
For the price paid for him ( a WW pick-up, here) he will still provide great value, mehopes.
Image
moochman
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1280
(Past Year: -369)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: First place baby

Re: Edinson Volquez - Is the End Near?

Postby Yoda » Mon Jul 07, 2008 12:51 pm

moochman wrote:Could it be he is going thru a tired arm phase? It's not unusual for some pitchers to do this around this time of year, no?
For the price paid for him ( a WW pick-up, here) he will still provide great value, mehopes.


I don't think he falls apart completely either. Usually pitchers go through the dead arm phase in mid to late August.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21191
(Past Year: -153)
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

cron