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Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:35 pm

His second half power splits are significantly lower than in the first half. Nobody thinks this comes into play?
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby bdrotoronto » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:45 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:His second half power splits are significantly lower than in the first half. Nobody thinks this comes into play?

Um, he hit 4 HR in the 1st half. It'll be impossible to do "significantly lower" than that in the 2nd half.
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 7:51 pm

bdrotoronto wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:His second half power splits are significantly lower than in the first half. Nobody thinks this comes into play?

Um, he hit 4 HR in the 1st half. It'll be impossible to do "significantly lower" than that in the 2nd half.



Um, April, May and June have historically been his best power months, and it's not even close.

Translation: why should anybody believe his inability to hit homers will cease?
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby mweir145 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:01 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:
bdrotoronto wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:His second half power splits are significantly lower than in the first half. Nobody thinks this comes into play?

Um, he hit 4 HR in the 1st half. It'll be impossible to do "significantly lower" than that in the 2nd half.



Um, April, May and June have historically been his best power months, and it's not even close.

Translation: why should anybody believe his inability to hit homers will cease?

As far as I'm concerned, that trend could pretty much be a fluke, and isn't something that should be cared about at all in this particular situation. He's only actually been a decent power hitter for two years (one of which he had a staph infection in July). Hardly a big enough sample size to say that he won't hit for power in the 2nd half simply because he never does so.


I mean he didn't follow his normal trend in the 1st half, so why would he do so in the 2nd?
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby MashinSpuds » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:04 pm

"2) He has minimal protection batting 3rd. If Vernon Wells gets hurt for a long time he'll have no protection." ... ah crud, I jinxed it.

From Rotoworld:
The Toronto Globe and Mail reports that Vernon Wells has suffered a Grade 2 strain of his left hamstring and will be out 4-6 weeks.


Guys, if you were ever thinking of buying low on Rios for whatever reason, you have all the evidence you'll need in this thread to browbeat Rios' owner. I would think Rios is a better acquisition in keeper leagues than re-draft leagues at this point, but if you're hurting for offense and need to gamble he's the definition of gamble right now.
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:18 pm

mweir145 wrote:

I mean he didn't follow his normal trend in the 1st half, so why would he do so in the 2nd?


Tell me where I said he wouldn't hit for power. All I am wondering is why nobody has mentioned the splits. Not a huge sample size, but it's definitely not small enough to ignore. What evidence based on his career is there to say that he IS going to turn it around from a power aspect? None from what I can see.
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby mweir145 » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:21 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:

I mean he didn't follow his normal trend in the 1st half, so why would he do so in the 2nd?


Tell me where I said he wouldn't hit for power. All I am wondering is why nobody has mentioned the splits. Not a huge sample size, but it's definitely not small enough to ignore. What evidence based on his career is there to say that he IS going to turn it around from a power aspect? None from what I can see.

The fact that he has a .400 SLG% this year, but is a career .445? The fact that he slugged .500 in 2006 and 2007?

But that's fine, you go with your method of doing things, I'll stick with mine.
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby freeling_prideful » Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:05 am

mweir145 wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:

I mean he didn't follow his normal trend in the 1st half, so why would he do so in the 2nd?


Tell me where I said he wouldn't hit for power. All I am wondering is why nobody has mentioned the splits. Not a huge sample size, but it's definitely not small enough to ignore. What evidence based on his career is there to say that he IS going to turn it around from a power aspect? None from what I can see.

The fact that he has a .400 SLG% this year, but is a career .445? The fact that he slugged .500 in 2006 and 2007?

But that's fine, you go with your method of doing things, I'll stick with mine.


Hey, you realize .445 is a pretty mediocre slugging percentage, right? The fact is that Rios has 2 years in the majors with a slugging percentage below .400, and 2 right around .500 (his most recent years). But it's not like his line drive rate changed significantly during those years--instead, what happened is that he hit a lot more flyballs, from 50-55% GB in his first 2 years to around 35% in 06 and 07.

This season, that number is .459, right in the middle, and it's tough to figure out whether that means Rios has lost his 06/07 approach to hitting the ball. All in all, I would grade him is a very risky acquisition right now, since his current performance is basically replacement level...not so different than this guy: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?playerId=4693&firstName=Fred%20D&lastName=Lewis.

Rios will likely finish around .285/12 HR/70 RBI/90 R/32 SB, which is decent but nothing mind-blowing.
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby DbacksRback » Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:48 am

ive never had too much love for rios ill be staying away
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Re: Is it a good time to go for Alex Rios or stay away?

Postby mweir145 » Fri Jul 11, 2008 2:51 am

freeling_prideful wrote:Hey, you realize .445 is a pretty mediocre slugging percentage, right? The fact is that Rios has 2 years in the majors with a slugging percentage below .400, and 2 right around .500 (his most recent years). But it's not like his line drive rate changed significantly during those years--instead, what happened is that he hit a lot more flyballs, from 50-55% GB in his first 2 years to around 35% in 06 and 07.

This season, that number is .459, right in the middle, and it's tough to figure out whether that means Rios has lost his 06/07 approach to hitting the ball. All in all, I would grade him is a very risky acquisition right now, since his current performance is basically replacement level...not so different than this guy: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?playerId=4693&firstName=Fred%20D&lastName=Lewis.

Rios will likely finish around .285/12 HR/70 RBI/90 R/32 SB, which is decent but nothing mind-blowing.

Maybe you should read the entire thread before commenting, but I'm quite sure you missed the part where I said I wasn't a huge fan of Rios as a fantasy player. Everything you've brought up is basically the reason why. His '04/'05 seasons scare the hell out of me. All I was pointing out was that his 2nd half power regressions the last two seasons probably aren't incredibly meaningful considering he's a completely different hitter this year than he was in those years (and we atleast seem to be in agreement on that issue).

However, I do think you're underrating the numbers he could put up the rest of this season. Outside of his awful month of May where he got into some terrible habits at the plate, he's been hitting .316. He's also been stealing way more than at any other point in his career, and to suggest that he'll only get 9 more over the next 70 games is a bit crazy. And considering he even has 50 runs despite being on one of the unluckiest offensive teams in baseball, I think he'll get well over 90. Rios should be a good source of AVG, R, and SB for the rest of the season, and there's even a chance he will get one of his power streaks going. He's very unlikely to slug .400 again after the AS break.

And replacement level? When you consider that he's one of better defensive right fielders in baseball (who should likely play center full time instead of Wells), I don't think that's much of a worry.
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