Return to Baseball Leftovers

PECOTA breakouts

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

PECOTA breakouts

Postby stumpak » Fri Feb 27, 2009 10:37 pm

For PECOTA subscribers, who have you noticed as coming in above the consensus expectation? In my experience PECOTA does as good of a job as anyone at predicting who will exceed expectations. So far I have noticed:

Elijah Dukes - they are really high on him
Andrew Miller - again, really really high on him relative to performance last year
Chris Young (AZ) - predicting a big year (again)
Randy Johnson - If their 50th percentile comes through, he will be a huge steal
Javier Vazquez - If their 50th percentile comes through, he will be in the running for a Cy Young
Connor Jackson - meangingful improvement in HR and RBI
stumpak
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2724
(Past Year: -5)
Joined: 9 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Washington, DC

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Matthias » Fri Feb 27, 2009 11:20 pm

I haven't picked up BP yet for this year, but are you looking at the Breakout %age? If so, you should be aware that those %ages are based off of their 3-year average. So it's not that they think that Andrew Miller is going to break out relative to his year last year, it's that they think that he's going to break out from what he did in 2006-2008 which is very different.

If you're just looking at the median projection then yah, that's legit. As I said, I just haven't seen it yet this year.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4826
(Past Year: -34)
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 28, 2009 12:20 am

stumpak wrote:For PECOTA subscribers, who have you noticed as coming in above the consensus expectation? In my experience PECOTA does as good of a job as anyone at predicting who will exceed expectations. So far I have noticed:

Elijah Dukes - they are really high on him
Andrew Miller - again, really really high on him relative to performance last year
Chris Young (AZ) - predicting a big year (again)
Randy Johnson - If their 50th percentile comes through, he will be a huge steal
Javier Vazquez - If their 50th percentile comes through, he will be in the running for a Cy Young
Connor Jackson - meangingful improvement in HR and RBI


Big fan of RJ and Dukes this year based on where they are getting drafted.

RJ showed he was healthy down the stretch and still K's with the best of them. Moving to SF will aid his flyball tendencies big time.

Dukes if he is healthy could go 20-20. Healthy is key though.

They are ALWAYS high on Vazquez. This year is no different.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Yoda
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 21191
(Past Year: -153)
Joined: 21 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 15th green...

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Mays » Sun Mar 01, 2009 10:48 pm

I saw that they were big on Cristian Guzman for 2009 as well. I lot of people didn't notice that he hit .316 last year.
Mays
Little League Legend
Little League Legend


Posts: 17
Joined: 19 Feb 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Tommy John » Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:15 pm

I don't have the stats here, but I remember reading they are pretty high on:

Stephen Drew
Billy Butler
Matt Wieters (huge numbers)
Travis Snider (same)
They are always high on Kelly Johnson
Markakis
Ianetta
Granderson
Jody Gerut
Parra
Slowey
Maholm

Guys off the top of my head, I think a few might be guys Shandler is high on as well. Like I said, I don't have it in front of me
Tommy John
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 613
(Past Year: -7)
Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Mid-Missouri

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Tommy John » Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:16 pm

Justin Upton
Tommy John
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 613
(Past Year: -7)
Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Mid-Missouri

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Birds on the Bat » Sun Mar 01, 2009 11:43 pm

I never, ever understand the Vazquez love. This is not 2003, and the Expos does not exist anymore. Because Vazquez had a couple good years up in Montreal and hasn't done anything since. I guess he had a decent year in 07, but it was nothing off the charts. He's good for strikeout numbers and that's about it.

I'm a big-time Conor Jackson fan. His natural progression as a hitter will take him to stardom in an improving Arizona lineup.
Birds on the Bat
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 29
Joined: 14 Dec 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Scooter1027 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:02 am

Birds on the Bat wrote:I never, ever understand the Vazquez love. This is not 2003, and the Expos does not exist anymore. Because Vazquez had a couple good years up in Montreal and hasn't done anything since. I guess he had a decent year in 07, but it was nothing off the charts. He's good for strikeout numbers and that's about it.

I'm a big-time Conor Jackson fan. His natural progression as a hitter will take him to stardom in an improving Arizona lineup.


From a fantasy perspective, Vazquez's '07 was excellent. The 1.14 WHIP and 213 Ks were elite, his 15 W were pretty darn good, and his 3.74 ERA certainly didn't hurt. He definitely took a step back in '08 (although the 200 Ks were still there), and that's what makes him so hard to draft, he's inconsistent. The one thing he does have going for him though is durability -- he hasn't thrown fewer than 198 innings in a season since 1999. 8 200+ IP seasons, 4 200+ K seasons with 2 more in the 190s. With the move to the NL, I like him.

I'm also big on Dukes (took him in both my leagues thus far), as I love his combination of pitch selction (15.3% BB rate), power, and speed. I also like Conor Jackson as a .300/15/85/85 type guy, a good target for an "IF" of "CI" slot for leagues that use them.
Scooter1027
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 1121
(Past Year: -3)
Joined: 16 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby jfg » Mon Mar 02, 2009 1:56 am

Almost everybody I've seen PECOTA hype are guys I was already thinking about this year. Usually I double take a few names on the list, and although I think some of the projections are high they are still guys I was looking at. Maybe I'm just used to the PECOTA projections and they've brainwashed me.
Image
jfg
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicGolden Eagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly WinnerTrivia Time Trial Monthly Winner
Posts: 5941
(Past Year: -127)
Joined: 4 Nov 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: PECOTA breakouts

Postby Tommy John » Mon Mar 02, 2009 10:52 am

Mark Reynolds
Tommy John
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 613
(Past Year: -7)
Joined: 19 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Mid-Missouri

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron