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5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

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5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby HOOTIE » Wed Jan 13, 2010 5:21 pm

OVERRATED

Ryan Franklin- a time bomb waiting to go off. .269 babip, 85.7% strand rate. He's a 4.50 era pitcher.

Jason Bartlett- a career .350 oba, who had a .368 babip last year. His average and sb will drop.

Mark Reynolds- a career .257 hitter. Had a abnormal 26% hr/fb ratio. Still only hit .260. His numbers will all drop some if that hr/fb ratio drops. His k% keeps getting worse also.

JA Happ- a .270 babip, with a 85.2% strand rate. He's more like a low 4 era sp.

Jair Jurrgens- not a big K guy, who's era was inflated with a .273 babip and a 79.4% strand rate.






UNDERRATED

Cole Hamels- his skill set matched 08. Had a unlucky .325 babip.

Jay Bruce- only 23, had a unlucky .222 babip.

Ricky Nolasco- was unlucky with .336 babip, and a obscene 61% strand rate. Probably the unluckiest sp last year.

Justin Verlander- much better then his era was. A .328 babip.

Joey Votto-missed 31 games, keeping his numbers down. But they still looked nice.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Jan 13, 2010 5:53 pm

Definitely Franklin. I'll add Santana, V-Mart, Bay and Bourn as overrated.

Underrated: Beltran, Berkman, B.J. Upton, Carlos Quentin, Porcello. I actually think Nolasco is being overrated in some circles.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby Ender » Wed Jan 13, 2010 6:57 pm

Matt Cain - He displayed almost exactly the same skills as 2007/2008 but due to an 82% LOB he had a 'break out' in ERA, I'm also more than a little worried by how many innings have been put on that arm at his age.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby The Artful Dodger » Wed Jan 13, 2010 7:31 pm

HOOTIE wrote:UNDERRATED

Cole Hamels- his skill set matched 08. Had a unlucky .325 babip.

Jay Bruce- only 23, had a unlucky .222 babip.

Ricky Nolasco- was unlucky with .336 babip, and a obscene 61% strand rate. Probably the unluckiest sp last year.

Justin Verlander- much better then his era was. A .328 babip.

Joey Votto-missed 31 games, keeping his numbers down. But they still looked nice.


Agreed with Hamels and Bruce, but I don't believe Verlander and Votto are underrated when their respective MDP are quite high. I remember looking through one mock and thought a mid 2nd round pick was a bit too high for Votto.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:57 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:Underrated: Beltran, Berkman, B.J. Upton, Carlos Quentin, Porcello. I actually think Nolasco is being overrated in some circles.


Out of curiosity, why do you regard Quentin as underrated? I ask because I'm wondering whether or not to deal him in my dynasty. My biggest problem with him is health. Until he can last a whole season, I'll be a bit skeptical as to how valuable he can be.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby kab21 » Wed Jan 13, 2010 11:00 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:Underrated: Beltran, Berkman, B.J. Upton, Carlos Quentin, Porcello. I actually think Nolasco is being overrated in some circles.


Out of curiosity, why do you regard Quentin as underrated? I ask because I'm wondering whether or not to deal him in my dynasty. My biggest problem with him is health. Until he can last a whole season, I'll be a bit skeptical as to how valuable he can be.


I noticed that also. He's recovered from his hand injury but he still has the plantar fasciitis which can be a nagging injury for years.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby BaseballProf » Wed Jan 13, 2010 11:30 pm

I'll add in a few guys, two of whom produced but are still undervalued and one that should rebound:

1. Shin-Soo Choo: Went 78th overall in a mock draft I did today and was drafted after BJ Upton, but why is Upton better? Choo put up a 68/.309/14/66/4 line in 317 AB in 2008, and then followed that up with 87/.309/20/86/21 in 583 AB in 2009. Upton steals 40 bases, but he's a career .266 hitter and trending downward, and while he did hit 24 HR three years ago, he has only managed 20 in 1091 AB since then.

2. Ian Stewart: His per-game production (average aside) has been incredible. He put up a 30-100 season in the minors a few years back, and with Atkins gone he will get a full season of AB. A 74/.228/25/70/4 line in 425 AB shows real promise, and he also has 15 SB potential. Plus, he batted .293 in the minors so maybe he can get his average back up. If he gets his LD rate back up to his career averages (it was only 14.1% in 2009) then he should be a respectable hitter.

3. Jhonny Peralta: He may have hit only 11 HR in 2009, but there is a logical explanation. He hit more ground balls than he ever had in his career (50.2%) and when he did hit fly balls, the rarely went out (career-low HR/FB rate of 7.9%). His 2007 and 2008 numbers were very stable, and I would be surprised if he doesn't post at least a .270/20/80 season. While not fantastic, it's better than his ADP. He lasted until the 23rd round in my mock draft. If I didn't have Reyes, I would have bitten. If you don't have an elite SS, Peralta is a great platoon option.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby Verminator » Wed Jan 13, 2010 11:34 pm

I disagree with Bruce being underrated... his unlucky BABIP was not so unlucky when you consider his awful line drive rate.

I also disagree that Jurrjens is overrated because he is still young (age 23) and developing and could see an increase in K rate next year. Also, he was fortunate last year, but it simply means that his ERA goes from outstanding to very good (FIP = 3.68 in '09).

Overrated: Someone who plays the corner position and has no speed, not a ton of power, and drafted quite early. Also, was extremely lucky in the BABIP department last year... Kevin Youkilis. :-t
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Jan 14, 2010 12:12 am

kab21 wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:Underrated: Beltran, Berkman, B.J. Upton, Carlos Quentin, Porcello. I actually think Nolasco is being overrated in some circles.


Out of curiosity, why do you regard Quentin as underrated? I ask because I'm wondering whether or not to deal him in my dynasty. My biggest problem with him is health. Until he can last a whole season, I'll be a bit skeptical as to how valuable he can be.


I noticed that also. He's recovered from his hand injury but he still has the plantar fasciitis which can be a nagging injury for years.


Health will always be a question but Quentin's MDP was 101 last time I looked. He's still very productive when playing. In October he had a pin removed from his hip and the doctors also found no problems with his foot.
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Re: 5 most underrated/overrated fantasy players

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Jan 14, 2010 12:28 am

Jurrgens had a 2.60 era. A lot of people are going to go off that. 3.68 is still quite a difference from 2.60. Jurrgens could improve his K rate, although it actually dropped from 08.

Bruce isn't going to hit .222 again. His previous low babip minors/majors was .298, before last year. His g/f ratio needs to go back to 08, true. He looks as if he was upper cutting too much last year.
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