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HLD to SV

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HLD to SV

Postby DaSh 1s » Sun Jan 17, 2010 4:09 pm

In my twenty team draft I am thinking about punting SV within the draft and trying to stock up on a bunch of HLD relievers that have a chance of becoming a source of SV

Who are favorite HLD-SV guys?
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby B-Chad » Sun Jan 17, 2010 6:03 pm

Luke Gregerson/Mike Adams in SD: I fully expect Heath Bell to be dealt at somepoint this season.

Brandon League Seattle: I have zero faith in Aardsma and his awful walk rate and high FB rate holding the closer job all year.

C.J. Wilson Texas: If he sticks in the pen, seems like a decent shot Frank Francisco will miss some time allowing Wilson to pick up some saves.

Kevin Jepsen LAA: He has some serious hurdles with both Fuentes and Rodney there (and getting paid like closers), but probably has the best skillset for the closing role, so maybe.

Chris Perez Cleveland: Definitely like Perez a lot. Wood's contract is pretty big, so it'll be tough to move, but I think the Indians will ship him off somewhere, and even if they don't, I could see Wood missing time pretty easily.

Matt Thornton Chicago Whitesox: I really like his numbers. Induces a bunch of GB's and has a nice K/9 (over 10 the last two years). Jenks always seems to be in and out of Ozzie's doghouse, and Thornton may be the more talented pitcher anyways. He is a lefty though, so that may hurt his odds.

Angel Guzman Chicago Cubs: I really just don't trust Marmol and his absurdly high walk rate and FB tendencies. Guzman doesn't strikeout as many as a typical closer, but he induces a healthy number of grounders and seems to be the best in house candidate to replace Marmol if he faulters.

J.P. Howell TB Rays: They obviously dealt for Soriano to close, but he's never been a model of good health, so it's possible (maybe even likely) he'll be shelved for periods of time. I also wouldn't put it past Maddon to give Howell the ball in the 9th on occasion to attempt to keep Soriano healthy, and if a lefty heavy part of a lineup is due up.

Dan Meyer Florida Marlins: I think he's the best reliever in the Marlins bullpen, and him passing Nunez as the closer wouldn't surprise me. The Marlins may prefer keeping him out of the closer spot so he can continue to be used as a lefty specialist though.

Ryan Madson Philly: Seems like an obvious choice. Lidge had or is having another surgery on his knee, and simply wasn't effective at all last year. They brought in Dannys Baez as well, so they may turn to him, but Madson has been the guy when Lidge has faultered traditionally.

Drew Storen Washington Nationals: I am enamored with Drew Storen. He was flat out awesome after signing last year, and likely doesn't need much more minor league seasoning as a college arm. That said, the Nats could opt to try and turn him into a starter. That said, I see no reason not to develop him as a lights out closer since that bullpen was miserable, and while Capps was a nice signing, he could easily be shifted to the 8th.
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sun Jan 17, 2010 7:41 pm

Excellent post, B-Chad. I agree with quite a bit of what you have to say here. I think you have to look at Gregerson, Wilson, Perez and Thornton as some of top choices here. I hope you're wrong on Marmol/Guzman as I have high hopes for Marmol this year in a couple leagues... :-o
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby DaSh 1s » Mon Jan 18, 2010 9:41 pm

Wow, great post. Very useful.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby MasterX1918 » Tue Jan 19, 2010 3:38 am

There's also Zumaya and Perry in Detroit and Jason Motte in St. Louis. Also keep an eye on the Toronto situation, Accardo and Downs could both save games if Frasor doesn't do well. I also can see Bailey experiencing a bit of a sophomore slump and Ziegler/Devine closing games for them. Some other names for guys who could be in line to save games in case of injury

-Daniel Bard
-Jim Johnson
-JJ Putz
-Tony Pena
-Chris Ray
-Kelvim Escobar
-Takashi Saito
-Danys Baez %-6
-Brian Bruney
-Brandon Lyon
-George Sherrill
-LaTroy Hawkins
-Jared Burton
-Rafael Betancourt
-Manny Corpas
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby B-Chad » Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:10 am

)
MasterX1918 wrote:There's also Zumaya and Perry in Detroit and Jason Motte in St. Louis. Also keep an eye on the Toronto situation, Accardo and Downs could both save games if Frasor doesn't do well. I also can see Bailey experiencing a bit of a sophomore slump and Ziegler/Devine closing games for them. Some other names for guys who could be in line to save games in case of injury

-Daniel Bard
-Jim Johnson
-JJ Putz
-Tony Pena
-Chris Ray
-Kelvim Escobar
-Takashi Saito
-Danys Baez %-6
-Brian Bruney
-Brandon Lyon
-George Sherrill
-LaTroy Hawkins
-Jared Burton
-Rafael Betancourt
-Manny Corpas


Should have included Motte. I have no faith in Franklin. I feel like I commented on that somewhere (maybe sleeper thread, or over underrated thread :-?)

Franklin Morales not worst guess either (though Betancourt was lights out in Colorado and is right-handed). Chris Ray is in Texas now and that would surprise me. Escobar seems unlikely to stay healthy. Lyon is probably the favorite (given contract) to close, with Lindstrom the guy to succeed him (when he ultimately fails). Bruney might succeed Capps, but I'm going Capps then Storen (but seriously, Bruney not bad darkhorse at all). Saito definitely next in line behind Wagner. Putz/Pena if committee arises in Chi-town or they opt to neglect Thornton. Bard = awesome, but Pap is the guy unless he surprisingly breaks down (or really sucks the big one, which he did slip some last year).

Hawkins next in line behind Hoffman (and paid like... though glossy numbers hide mediocre underlying stats) and Johnson good speculative couple save guy given Gonzalez struggles to stay healthy in past (though Johnson's pitch to GB contact should limit upside). Devine/Ziegler interesting speculative (wanted to include Devine), but Devine returning from injury, Wuertz was lights out (possible option himself), Henry Rodriguez WAS supposed to be the heir to the closer throne ( apparantly now occupied by Bailey, and rightfully so) and dark horse Jonathan Meloan (former Dodger top 10 BA prospect, waived and an Indians farm hand, waived then an A's reliever, lights out in September). Given the depth of talent in Oak I would avoid "handcuff," type.

Sherill, not worst "trade," speculative pick, but Belisario, Troncoso, Kuo all stand shot if Broxton were to get nicked up, so probably best to avoid. I'm a Giants fan, so take it with a grain of salt, but I am enamored with Sergio Romo, if Wilson faulters, gets hurt or is dealt, I'd guess he, not Affeldt, closes.

Appologies for the pre-edited post. Apparantly alcohol prevented my ability to push the enter key :-b
Last edited by B-Chad on Tue Jan 19, 2010 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby hybrid » Tue Jan 19, 2010 5:07 am

B-Chad wrote:Should have included Motte. I have no faith in Franklin. I feel like I commented on that somewhere (maybe sleeper thread, or over underrated thread :-?)

Franklin Morales not worst guess either (though Betancourt was lights out in Colorado and is right-handed). Chris Ray is in Texas now and that would surprise me. Escobar seems unlikely to stay healthy. Lyon is probably the favorite (given contract) to close, with Lindstrom the guy to succeed him (when he ultimately fails). Bruney might succeed Capps, but I'm going Capps then Storen (but seriously, Bruney not bad darkhorse at all). Saito definitely next in line behind Wagner. Putz/Pena if committee arises in Chi-town or they opt to neglect Thornton. Bard = awesome, but Pap is the guy unless he surprisingly breaks down (or really sucks the big one, which he did slip some last year). Hawkins next in line behind Hoffman (and paid like... though glossy numbers hide mediocre underlying stats) and Johnson good speculative couple save guy given Gonzalez struggles to stay healthy in past (though Johnson's pitch to GB contact should limit upside). Devine/Ziegler interesting speculative (wanted to include Devine), but Devine returning from injury, Wuertz was lights out (possible option himself), Henry Rodriguez WAS supposed to be the heir to the closer throne ( apparantly now occupied by Bailey, and rightfully so) and dark horse Jonathan Meloan (former Dodger top 10 BA prospect, waived and an Indians farm hand, waived then an A's reliever, lights out in September). Given the depth of talent in Oak I would avoid "handcuff," type. Sherill, not worst "trade," speculative pick, but Belisario, Troncoso, Kuo all stand shot if Broxton were to get nicked up, so probably best to avoid. I'm a Giants fan, so take it with a grain of salt, but I am enamored with Sergio Romo, if Wilson faulters, gets hurt or is dealt, I'd guess he, not Affeldt, closes.


Good thread/talk, but this block of text is just screaming at me lol :-b
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby DaSh 1s » Tue Jan 19, 2010 10:02 am

I don't know how much of a impact Devine would have this year... He will be fresh off TJS
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby silverZ » Tue Jan 19, 2010 10:39 am

B-Chad...paragraphs please. Good post otherwise.
Here's the pitch on the way, a swing and a belt! Left field! Way back! BLUE JAYS WIN!
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Re: HLD to SV

Postby MasterX1918 » Tue Jan 19, 2010 2:36 pm

B-Chad wrote:
MasterX1918 wrote:There's also Zumaya and Perry in Detroit and Jason Motte in St. Louis.


Should have included Motte. I have no faith in Franklin. I feel like I commented on that somewhere (maybe sleeper thread, or over underrated thread :-?)

I did mention Motte ;-D Motte is someone i'm definitly targeting late in drafts as my #3 or 4 closer.
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