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Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby DaSh 1s » Wed Jan 20, 2010 12:29 pm

Captain Furtah wrote:As has been said before, you take value and if there are a lot (10-15) of hitters you have ranked very similar but a big drop off in the pitchers after 1 or 2 guys, then take the pitcher. Pitchers are risky, but post steroids era so are a lot of hitters.


You can really minimize the risk to nothing if you pick the right Hitters, as with pitching there is always a risk no matter who.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby MotorCityKitties » Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:17 pm

In H2H I wait on pitchers and go with a quantity over quality strategy. My entire bench is usually used on starting pitching. In roto I'm more likely to start taking pitchers in round 4 or 5.
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby Captain Furtah » Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:33 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
Captain Furtah wrote:As has been said before, you take value and if there are a lot (10-15) of hitters you have ranked very similar but a big drop off in the pitchers after 1 or 2 guys, then take the pitcher. Pitchers are risky, but post steroids era so are a lot of hitters.


You can really minimize the risk to nothing if you pick the right Hitters, as with pitching there is always a risk no matter who.


Really, what hitters have zero risk? You saw David Wright hitting only 10 homers after 30 and 33 the previous 2 years? You saw Sizemore getting hurt and playing in 106 games after not missing a game in 4 years? Beltran playing in 80 games after averaging ~150 the past 8 years?

You think there is no risk with Hanley pulling his hamstring like Reyes did last year (all base stealers run this risk), can you gaurantee Holliday plays the entire year hitting like he did in the 2nd half of last year not the first, that Chase Utley won't miss time this year due to his injury?

I agree that pitchers are much more risky than hitters but to say you can minimize the risk to NOTHING is crazy. Who are the hitters your targeting that have ZERO risk?

Pujols- usually plays through it but one year he could take some time to get healthy, expecially if his team falls off early and he is hurting
A Rod- body could break down quickly at any time after coming off steroids
Miggy - with that lineup why would anyone pitch to him
Howard- will his BA continue to fall to where he's a 3rd/4th rounder like Dunn, not a 1st rounder?

I don't think any of these will happen, but there is a chance. I'd put Braun, Teix and Longoria with the least risk, but still not ZERO...
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby DaSh 1s » Wed Jan 20, 2010 1:49 pm

Sure, there is some risks with hitters, but if you pick hitters who have been the model of health, you are more likely to come on top. Just going through the list of the Top 50 hitters for 2010, there is like 4 that I consider a bust. Sizemore, Reyes, Rollins are the only hitters I really consider to be a bust last year. D Wright, I guess you could argue a bust, but he was still quite useful for some periods of time.

The scenarios you are listing are what I would consider busts or risks. I don't expect A-Rod's body to break down from steroids, I expect Miggy to be able to hit pitchers, I expect Pujols to not quit on the year, I don't expect Ryan Howard to become Adam Dunn. I guess we differ on views of bust.

You just never know when a tingling sensation will occur in a pitchers shoulder or elbow.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby MasterX1918 » Wed Jan 20, 2010 2:11 pm

I almost always wait on pitching. It seems like i'm able to get pitching latter in drafts than hitters. Last year I was able to get Greinke and Heath Bell in the 13th and 14th rounds when there were slim pickings on offense.
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby Element » Wed Jan 20, 2010 3:49 pm

I don't normally do regular drafts, but I would wait as well. Typically, once the offensive players start to blend together is when I pull the trigger. In comparison, I do a standard $260 auction draft. I spent a total of $58 on pitching (9 of 23 roster spots) and dominated all pitching cats. In fact, the player that I spent the most on (Joba $12) was off my roster by the ASB. I was able to scoop Wandy and EJax in the latter stages for $1 each & took the chance on Carpenter at $11. There are always guys that fall that shouldn't and there are always hidden gems out there if you can find them.
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby Captain Furtah » Wed Jan 20, 2010 4:28 pm

I do auction as well and will only spend 50-60 on pitching just saying this year ill prolly spend 30 on an ace and fill in the rest with low dollar high value guys.
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby DaSh 1s » Wed Jan 20, 2010 4:40 pm

garf112 wrote:There is definitely more risk in pitchers, no one is going to argue that, and considerably less risk in hitters.

As an owner of Sizemore, Reyes and Wright on my main money team last year, I can tell you that hitters still have some risk...


How the balls did you manage to get Reyes, Sizemore, and Wright all in one draft last year? That was like three 1st rounders? 4 team league?
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby moochman » Wed Jan 20, 2010 6:07 pm

I still have a floating philosophy on when to slot players. Lately I have been going after power bats in the first 1-5 rnds, with a top echelon SP in the mix if I feel they have fallen enough. Then I try to take alternate hitters and pitchers in the next few rounds. What gives me more trouble is when to draft RPs. I play with hold cats but don't bother drafting them until very late, but I cannot pin down when the better time is to take a stud closer(s). Is it usually best to wait for the run to start, or to be initiating the closer run? Is rnd 8 about right?
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Re: Bat/Arm Draft Ratios

Postby DaSh 1s » Wed Jan 20, 2010 7:00 pm

moochman wrote:I still have a floating philosophy on when to slot players. Lately I have been going after power bats in the first 1-5 rnds, with a top echelon SP in the mix if I feel they have fallen enough. Then I try to take alternate hitters and pitchers in the next few rounds. What gives me more trouble is when to draft RPs. I play with hold cats but don't bother drafting them until very late, but I cannot pin down when the better time is to take a stud closer(s). Is it usually best to wait for the run to start, or to be initiating the closer run? Is rnd 8 about right?



Never pay for saves. If it's a H2H, your better off just picking off some of the second Tier RP, and keep on top of your CL game all through the year. I grabbed Ardsma, Hoffman and Franklin of the WW in one league last year and it was money in the bank for the SVs department all year. I can't fathom, dropping a pick on a Mo, Papz, Nathan. To much good SP value there.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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