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Rockies top OF's

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Rockies top OF's

Postby Mr. T » Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:04 pm

The Rockies seem to have a loaded OF. If they don't move anyone I see Hawpe in right, Fowler in CF, and Carlos Gonzalez in left. Smith, young, and Spilly will be looking to steal some at bats also. I think that Gonzalez is going to have a breakout season. I see him having a 20/20 season this year, maybe 25+ Hrs with 90- 100 runs. They have a good young lineup with a lot of runs to be scored. Anyone have any idea how the at bats will be spread in the outfeild?
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Re: Rockies top OF's

Postby B-Chad » Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:24 pm

Mr. T wrote:The Rockies seem to have a loaded OF. If they don't move anyone I see Hawpe in right, Fowler in CF, and Carlos Gonzalez in left. Smith, young, and Spilly will be looking to steal some at bats also. I think that Gonzalez is going to have a breakout season. I see him having a 20/20 season this year, maybe 25+ Hrs with 90- 100 runs. They have a good young lineup with a lot of runs to be scored. Anyone have any idea how the at bats will be spread in the outfeild?


At this point, I think all you'll get is speculation, so here is mine. I agree with your starting OF, but think once the free agent market dries up, you may see Hawpe dealt. Assuming Hawpe isn't dealt, with Atkins out of town, I suspect you may see him get some starts at 1B to spell Todd Helton (Hawpe's glove is bad in the OF, so this seems reasonable, IMO), and give one of the bench OF's a chance to get some starts/AB's. I think Eric Young Jr will be a super utility player in the mold of Ryan Freel for the time being. I think he'll get some starts at 2B, be a late replacement in the field for Hawpe as a pinch runnner/fielder (if his speed translates into good range and UZR that is). Smith to me is ahead of Spilborghs, and is my best guess for the 4th OF spot. That said, Spilborghs is useful, and will likely get some AB's and starts himself. Overall, it is a bit crowded, but I think things will shake out some as spring training and the season approach.
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Re: Rockies top OF's

Postby hybrid » Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:40 pm

Well lets say each starter gets 1 day off each week, that comes to about roughly around 66 available starts they can split up. Not a ton split up between 3 bench bats, however there should be more for EY Jr in the infield. If he backs up Barmes once a week, it's roughly 22 starts. Also Helton will have to take his mandatory 15-20 games off, but with out Atkins I can only see someone like Stewart to back him at the moment. Which Im suspecting they will try and use EY Jr. at 3B during those days (or possibly Barmes). So just looking at those numbers I see about 66 games for Smith and Spils to fight over and another 37-42 games for EY (you could possibly add 10 more for days when Ian is out).

Of course this doesn't include injuries which are bound to happen, possibly Hawpe being dealt, and of course PH'ing (which Smith did 48 times last year and Spils 38 times). What does it all mean, well the OF's barring injury should get about 500+ Ab's (Cargo possibly more since he can play every OF position). While Smith 300AB (I'm assuming someone gets hurt for a few weeks or so), EY 250AB, and Spils 200AB. Anyways hope that helps some.
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Re: Rockies top OF's

Postby Ender » Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:48 pm

I think the entire situation makes it hard to draft any of them at value unless someone gets traded in spring training.
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Re: Rockies top OF's

Postby fezzik » Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:51 pm

It seems to me they should probably deal Hawpe and plug Smith in that last OF position, rotating Spilborghs in off and on...but I don't know how everything will shake out. Plus Hawpe, despite being a suspect fielder, has been one of their most consistent hitters. So it might be scary to gamble that Smith will play in 2010 like he did in 2009...Spilborghs had a very nice '08 in limited time, but couldn't get into a rhythm in '09. Maybe they'll just play the hot bat. This paragraph was really all over the place... :-b

I'm high on Gonzalez...Fowler seems like the logical choice at CF unless his bat turns to ice and they throw Spilborghs out there.

However, everyone in Colorado except Hawpe suffers from pretty dramatic splits...and I would plan to play those accordingly regardless of who is in the field. I'll just post the Home/Away split differentials for OPS for the OFs from '09.

Name Home/Away OPS
Hawpe .917/.890
Gonzalez .943/.811
Smith 1.051/.730 X-I
Fowler .818/.717
Spilborghs .770/.644

I'm sure some of that is just guys feeling more comfortable at home, but I'd also chalk some of it up to the park factor.

The only one out of the bunch I'd feel completely comfortable drafting would be Carlos Gonzalez. Hawpe I'd be marginally comfortable drafting, but only at good value...he has shown he can hit outside of Coors, so if he got moved I'd still expect him to be pretty productive...though you still may see a slight dropoff. Plus, he always seems to miss some time due to small injuries and is getting older. So Carlos would be the only guy I'd be really looking at on draft day.
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