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Nolasco will Verlander

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Nolasco will Verlander

Postby Philliebuster » Fri Jan 22, 2010 10:44 pm

Nolasco is your Verlander of 2009. Last season was a culmination of bad luck, and probably a couple too many innings in 2008. Mark him down for 210, 16 wins, 205k's, 3.40 era. Draft him late, or leap early, you will be pleased with his performance in 2010.
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby MasterX1918 » Fri Jan 22, 2010 10:52 pm

I think Verlander will Halladay
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby hybrid » Fri Jan 22, 2010 11:47 pm

But um Nolasco didn't have a bad year, Verlander did in 2008... :-?
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby fezzik » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:01 am

I would say Verlander just didn't pitch well in 2008 while Nolasco got unlucky in 2009. Nolasco has fewer question marks this season than Verlander did last season, though I would argue that Verlander's ceiling is higher than Nolasco's.

Verlander's fastball went up 2mph from '08 to '09 and his control improved significantly (3.90 BB/9 to 2.36 BB/9). I'm not sure if Verlander was trying to pitch differently in '08 or had something else going on...his fastball went back to what it used to be prior to '08 but with improved control.

Nolasco just got unlucky with his BABIP and artificially inflated era.

I do agree that Nolasco's era should improve significantly over last season (maintaining his already beautiful K/9 and whip). Wins are always a bit random.
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:13 am

hybrid wrote:But um Nolasco didn't have a bad year, Verlander did in 2008... :-?


do you mean he didn't a bad year in the sabermetric sense? because a 5.06 ERA would be considered a bad year by many in the traditional sense.
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:15 am

fezzik wrote:I would say Verlander just didn't pitch well in 2008 while Nolasco got unlucky in 2009. Nolasco has fewer question marks this season than Verlander did last season, though I would argue that Verlander's ceiling is higher than Nolasco's.

Verlander's fastball went up 2mph from '08 to '09 and his control improved significantly (3.90 BB/9 to 2.36 BB/9). I'm not sure if Verlander was trying to pitch differently in '08 or had something else going on...his fastball went back to what it used to be prior to '08 but with improved control.

Nolasco just got unlucky with his BABIP and artificially inflated era.

I do agree that Nolasco's era should improve significantly over last season (maintaining his already beautiful K/9 and whip). Wins are always a bit random.


BABIP had something to do with it but .336 isn't that incredibly high, especially considering he gave up a lot of line drives. the 61% LOB% is the aberration that really screwed him. his K rate and BB rate are both very, very good and he could easily have a monster year with a reversal of fortune.
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby Philliebuster » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:33 am

Well from watching last season, one of his problems was that he was gettin lit up with runners on base...and obviously RISP, which explains the high ERA, with other solid numbers. He should improve pitching out of the stretch...that can be learned.
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby fezzik » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:36 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
fezzik wrote:I would say Verlander just didn't pitch well in 2008 while Nolasco got unlucky in 2009. Nolasco has fewer question marks this season than Verlander did last season, though I would argue that Verlander's ceiling is higher than Nolasco's.

Verlander's fastball went up 2mph from '08 to '09 and his control improved significantly (3.90 BB/9 to 2.36 BB/9). I'm not sure if Verlander was trying to pitch differently in '08 or had something else going on...his fastball went back to what it used to be prior to '08 but with improved control.

Nolasco just got unlucky with his BABIP and artificially inflated era.

I do agree that Nolasco's era should improve significantly over last season (maintaining his already beautiful K/9 and whip). Wins are always a bit random.


BABIP had something to do with it but .336 isn't that incredibly high, especially considering he gave up a lot of line drives. the 61% LOB% is the aberration that really screwed him. his K rate and BB rate are both very, very good and he could easily have a monster year with a reversal of fortune.


Yeah, I was actually looking at a different number for his whip as well, so that should improve. Yeah, his LOB% was stupidly low...but his BABIP IMO is was still too high. Both should normalize and result in a very good year for him. I wasn't arguing against Nolasco having a huge year...quite the opposite. I did overlook the LOB% though.
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby hybrid » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:41 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
hybrid wrote:But um Nolasco didn't have a bad year, Verlander did in 2008... :-?


do you mean he didn't a bad year in the sabermetric sense? because a 5.06 ERA would be considered a bad year by many in the traditional sense.


I wasn't aware people still thought era was a meaningful stat to say whether or not someone pitched well. ;-7
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Re: Nolasco will Verlander

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:42 am

hybrid wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
hybrid wrote:But um Nolasco didn't have a bad year, Verlander did in 2008... :-?


do you mean he didn't a bad year in the sabermetric sense? because a 5.06 ERA would be considered a bad year by many in the traditional sense.


I wasn't aware people still thought era was a meaningful stat to say whether or not someone pitched well. ;-7


then you my friend, have not visited the mlb.com message boards.
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