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Tejada back to the O's

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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby Pogotheostrich » Sun Jan 24, 2010 10:12 pm

drob681 wrote:I think this is an intriguing fantasy move. Sure Tejada is old and his defense is in decline, but who cares? He has a clear path to a starting 3B position that happens to be incredibly shallow this year. After the first 5 or 6 3B, it's a total crapshoot. Tejada could be a nice late-round bargain if he gains 3B eligibility.

2 questions come to mind when evaluating the fantasy value of this move. 1) Where does he hit in the lineup? , and 2) Will he play everyday?

I would imagine he hits either 6th or 7th, and he really has only had 1 season where he didn't play at least 150 games (I think...). He could deliver a .290 avg with 15 HR and 90 RBI season easily out of the 20th round or later. I'd say that's not a bad deal if you miss out on the elite 3B and need somebody that won't kill you in any categories...

Am I crazy? :-?


I don't see why 3B eligibility helps him much fantasy-wise. SS is still more shallow.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby The Mighty Trow » Mon Jan 25, 2010 12:58 am

Third base is perhaps the second shallowest position (I'm not counting catcher because that is always shallow). This is especially true if one or two of Reynolds, Youkilis or Sandoval are drafted to play another position. (Does Sandoval still have Catcher eligibility?)

True Tejada would have more value as a shortstop but he still makes for a nice late round 3b or CI. With health, 75-15-85-.290 isn't too much of a stretch. I'd rather he play for the O's than Houston.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby AquaMan2342 » Mon Jan 25, 2010 1:04 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
drob681 wrote:I think this is an intriguing fantasy move. Sure Tejada is old and his defense is in decline, but who cares? He has a clear path to a starting 3B position that happens to be incredibly shallow this year. After the first 5 or 6 3B, it's a total crapshoot. Tejada could be a nice late-round bargain if he gains 3B eligibility.

2 questions come to mind when evaluating the fantasy value of this move. 1) Where does he hit in the lineup? , and 2) Will he play everyday?

I would imagine he hits either 6th or 7th, and he really has only had 1 season where he didn't play at least 150 games (I think...). He could deliver a .290 avg with 15 HR and 90 RBI season easily out of the 20th round or later. I'd say that's not a bad deal if you miss out on the elite 3B and need somebody that won't kill you in any categories...

Am I crazy? :-?


I don't see why 3B eligibility helps him much fantasy-wise. SS is still more shallow.


They are both shallow and where Tejada is being drafted it's conceivable he could be used to fill either of those positions. After Michael Young there's a huge fall off (risk-wise) at third, so if you miss out on the first six or so, you are scrambling either way.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby kab21 » Mon Jan 25, 2010 1:11 am

3B isn't even close to as shallow as SS. Look at some (preferably your) rankings and pick out the 10th and 15th SS and 3B. That 3Bman will be much better. 3B looks more like 2B this year.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby drob681 » Mon Jan 25, 2010 4:14 pm

At least we agree that 3B isn't exactly loaded with talent. I think a guy that will have eligibility in 2 of the most shallow positions is at least worth a look late. He could be had in the 20th+ round of most drafts and could very easily out-produce that ADP.

I'm not an orioles fan, but they have a 2008 Tampa bay feel to them right now. I could see them having a great year, and Tejada could really benefit from that. I must be a sucker from his 50 HR 140 RBi days, but I beleive Tejada will end up on alot of my teams.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby Grounded Polo » Mon Jan 25, 2010 5:00 pm

His 3B eligibility is pretty much irrelevant to me, the only benefit fantasy wise is he'll be playing a less demanding position defensively, improving his odds at staying healthy and matching his '09 numbers. He becomes an interesting candidate at SS given that it falls off a cliff after the top 5. I think I might prefer to take a flier round pick on him over guys like Alexei and Drew in the 10th.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby AnddWon » Mon Jan 25, 2010 7:00 pm

I think he is a nice late round pick sure
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:11 pm

kab21 wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:
MasterX1918 wrote:good move, hopefully an improvement over Huff/Mora/Wigginton last season


I don't think you need a 'hopefully' in there... :-b


Tejada has had .710 road OPS his two seasons in Houston. That bandbox (for righties) is masking how much he has declined. He is still a solid addition but he's not as good as people think.


Oriole Park at Camden Yards RHB HR park factor, 2007-09: 129
Minute Maid Park RHB HR park factor, 2007-09: 113

He's going to a bandbox, not leaving one.

But, I agree he's not as good as people think. Still last year, Mora gave the Orioles just a 79 OPS+ at 3B. Miggy posted a 109 last year and a 92, the year before. Even if he drops to the mid 80s, he's better than what we had last year. CHONE projects it to about a one win improvement.

Of course, the problem is that this pushes Atkins to 3B. Last year Huff posted an OPS+ of 90, while Atkins was at 66. On net, almost no improvement over last year for the corners combined.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby MasterX1918 » Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:21 pm

Atkins will surely do better this year than he did last year, imo. I think he'll benefit from a change in scenery.
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Re: Tejada back to the O's

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Jan 25, 2010 10:42 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:Atkins will surely do better this year than he did last year, imo. I think he'll benefit from a change in scenery.


Or maybe he'll do worse. Who knows? To do as well as Huff, he'd have to hit like he did in 2008, so I wouldn't be surprised if bounced back to that--but, that doesn't represent an improvement over last year. Together having him and Tejada still would just represent a 1 win improvement over last year.

The Orioles don't have a DRay feel about them. The DRays had two very strong young pitchers in Shields and Kazmir who were already throwing in 2007 for ERAs under 4. They added a third with the Garza trade, and then two other young pitchers stepped up from 6 ERA to 4.5 ERAs (Jackson and Sonnanstine).

The Orioles have one young pitcher who has posted an ERA under 3 in the majors, not three of them. And that one is seen as a bit of a fluke. Tillman and Matusz have not even pitched 100 IP in the majors, and are 2-4 years younger and less experienced than the DRay pitchers when they made their leap. The Orioles traded for Kevin Millwood, an aging 35 year old pitcher in decline, not Matt Garza, and young guy on the rise.

I love my O's, and would love for a miracle to happen this year. But, any close look at them says it's still at least one, and probably more like 2-3 years down the road.
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