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PRE/POST ASB Splits

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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby fezzik » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:45 pm

If it's someone young who shows a clear progression during the season, I will give the post allstar splits a bit more weight...especially in regard to K/BB, but also for power. It works for me...though it burned me last year with S. Drew and Elija Dukes. But my belief N. Cruz was for real balanced it out a bit.

Conversely, if it's an aging veteran and they show a clear downward trend during the second half of a season...I will give the post allstar splits more weight as well...then again I was able to grab D. Lee a little late last season, willing to take the risk. If you gave too much weight to his poor '08 second half you would have missed out.

I still give a little extra weight in both of the above cases, but it certainly isn't an exact science. I would ignore such pre/post allstar splits for proven guys in the middle of their career, unless it's a serious pattern like others have pointed out.
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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby Captain Furtah » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:47 pm

ok, maybe I should change the discussion topic to fast starters and good finishers....
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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:52 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:As Ender says, these pre/post ASB splits have almost no predictive value. You can produce that list, and you might as well coin flip on which players will continue that trend and which will not.


Draft Dan Haren and you will think otherwise!


Not in 2005 (and the same holds for LaRoche). So, you have 5 observations, one where he was better pre and 4 where he was better post.

Go ahead and bet on those odds in Vegas.

It's useless for prediction. And, it's information that's easily found, so if you believe it, you also have to beleive that you'll find a stupid sucker who doesn't know it!
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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby fezzik » Tue Jan 26, 2010 6:55 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:As Ender says, these pre/post ASB splits have almost no predictive value. You can produce that list, and you might as well coin flip on which players will continue that trend and which will not.


Draft Dan Haren and you will think otherwise!


Not in 2005 (and the same holds for LaRoche). So, you have 5 observations, one where he was better pre and 4 where he was better post.

Go ahead and bet on those odds in Vegas.

It's useless for prediction. And, it's information that's easily found, so if you believe it, you also have to beleive that you'll find a stupid sucker who doesn't know it!


I agree in general with what you're saying, but not your last observation...because if you believe it, then you can also simply rely on other people not believing it (e.g. you)...not necessarily a stupid sucker who believes it but doesn't know where to find the info.
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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby mblax10 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 9:37 am

Captain Furtah wrote:Not really looking for left/right


Good point. Why would you want to look at a meaningful data set that you can leverage when you can just look at variance and statistical noise like Pre/Post ASG. Have you looked at days of the week splits?
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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby Captain Furtah » Wed Jan 27, 2010 12:27 pm

mblax10 wrote:
Captain Furtah wrote:Not really looking for left/right


Good point. Why would you want to look at a meaningful data set that you can leverage when you can just look at variance and statistical noise like Pre/Post ASG. Have you looked at days of the week splits?


Thanks Pal, but you missed my point. I'm not trying to find 'better' players or platoon guys for my team. I was strictly looking for guys I should draft and trade later in the season or guys I should trade for later in the year. You can't trade for a guy when he hits against a lefty and then trade him off when he plays a righty, etc.

I've come to understand that this may not be the best way (unless I draft Haren and trade him for LaRoche later in the year), but you should really read/understand the question before you make such an idiodic and pointless post!

By the way, have you seen Stephen Drews numbers on Tuesdays? Wow!
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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby Captain Furtah » Wed Jan 27, 2010 1:39 pm

Ok I took a look at some guys who some say are being better in the second half. I wanted to see if there was a clear pattern so I looked at the past 3 years. They had to have a noticible difference in all 3 years, not the average as that could easily be skewd by 1 year of data...Anyway, take a look;

J Rollins - pre OPS, 2009-642 / 2008-778 / 2007-847 and post OPS, 2009-801 / 2008-794 / 2007-908 (they increased each year, but I would not say that is enough to justify much)

A Ram - pre 875/901/913, post 917/893/917 (clearly no correlation here)

Markakis - pre 790/895/771/683 (for 2006), post 813/899/939/896 (for 2006) (the numbers all clearly went up after the ASB but I wanted to be sure so I looked at 2006 too for Markakis. You would have a hard time convincing me that he is not a 2nd half player. I know there are indicating stats behind the numbers, but 4 straight years of vastly improving after the ASB is a good history of data). Again, I know the All star break has nothing to do with it, but more beggining of the year vs. end of the year...

Cano - pre 831/643/741, post 922/815/953 (again those are large enough differences and enough years to where I would say Cano is a 2nd half player)

Teix - pre 913/858/959, post 991/1120/966 (I don't think there is enough of a difference to make any conclusions here)

Howard - pre 870/832/933/923, post 1003/954/1016/1259 (again went back to 2006 to be sure, but I tough to argue with numbers that differ that much - Howard is better after the ASB!)

Dunn (people say fast starter)- pre 943/918/905/916, post 908/872/986/777 (3 out of 4 years is not bad, but I don't think there is much here. Is it enough to draft Dunn and hope to trade him after his hot start? probably not. But Dunn and Cano have ADP in the same ballpark. Would I trade Dunn for Cano at the ASB? Yes, definately)


Do I think this is the best stat to use, no. I think that opponents, weather, lineups, other noise, etc. have something to do with these stats but I think it is clear that some players start off the year slower than others and turn it on later in the year...If you disagree, are you sure you'd ignore their pre/post OPS's and not want Markakis, Cano and Howard for your playoff push? If you answer is no, please invite me to your pay league...
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Re: PRE/POST ASB Splits

Postby mblax10 » Wed Jan 27, 2010 9:02 pm

Captain Furtah wrote:
mblax10 wrote:
Captain Furtah wrote:Not really looking for left/right


Good point. Why would you want to look at a meaningful data set that you can leverage when you can just look at variance and statistical noise like Pre/Post ASG. Have you looked at days of the week splits?


Thanks Pal, but you missed my point. I'm not trying to find 'better' players or platoon guys for my team. I was strictly looking for guys I should draft and trade later in the season or guys I should trade for later in the year. You can't trade for a guy when he hits against a lefty and then trade him off when he plays a righty, etc.

I've come to understand that this may not be the best way (unless I draft Haren and trade him for LaRoche later in the year), but you should really read/understand the question before you make such an idiodic and pointless post!

By the way, have you seen Stephen Drews numbers on Tuesdays? Wow!


No, I get your point. You missed why everybody told you not to bother. Try reading this article. It would be a much better use of your time. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... _anything/
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