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BABIP Question

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BABIP Question

Postby BigL531 » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:09 pm

I know Babip is BA on balls hit into play and is a decent indicator of who has been getting "lucky/unlucky", although there are other factors that go into BABIP, like speed, LD%, etc. So a few months of the season people will look at guys with low BABIPs as guys to target in trades/waivers. Does anyone put anything into year-to-year BABIP? Say for example a guy had a BABIP of .270 last year but has been a .300 BABIP guy for his career. Does anyone think thats an indicator his BABIP will be higher this year, therefore outperforming projections? I'd like to know if anyone believes that or if BABIP is a thing to only be looked at in-season. I guess there is no correct answer for this but I'd like to hear some theories or better yet some data on the topic.
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Re: BABIP Question

Postby Ender » Tue Jan 26, 2010 8:51 pm

Does anyone put anything into year-to-year BABIP? Say for example a guy had a BABIP of .270 last year but has been a .300 BABIP guy for his career. Does anyone think thats an indicator his BABIP will be higher this year


That is probably the best way to use it, compare BABIP to career rates and assume regression. The exceptions are if a player has a big spike in ISO or K/BB in which case it can be skill growth. LD% doesn't show a strong yearly correlation so that one is harder to read a pattern in generally.
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Re: BABIP Question

Postby J35J » Tue Jan 26, 2010 11:35 pm

Ender wrote:That is probably the best way to use it, compare BABIP to career rates and assume regression. The exceptions are if a player has a big spike in ISO or K/BB in which case it can be skill growth. LD% doesn't show a strong yearly correlation so that one is harder to read a pattern in generally.


+1
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Re: BABIP Question

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jan 27, 2010 11:03 am

J35J wrote:
Ender wrote:That is probably the best way to use it, compare BABIP to career rates and assume regression. The exceptions are if a player has a big spike in ISO or K/BB in which case it can be skill growth. LD% doesn't show a strong yearly correlation so that one is harder to read a pattern in generally.


+1

;-D
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