Return to Baseball Leftovers

McGwire Effect?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

McGwire Effect?

Postby StlSluggers » Mon Apr 19, 2010 11:59 pm

CARDINALS thru 12 games
Year BB/PA K/PA HR/PA R/PA
2009 8.7% 17.1% 2.6% 12.0%
2010 10.4% 19.6% 3.3% 11.2%
Diff 20.0% 14.5% 24.1% -6.5%
Image
Want an easy icon?
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=133
All you have to do is beat a few guys at picking Sunday's winners.[/url]
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14415
(Past Year: -301)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:02 am

They do seem to be relying on the HR more to score runs but it might be too early to draw any conclusions.
Image
Pogotheostrich
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 20471
(Past Year: -946)
Joined: 9 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Louis

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:20 am

YoY %CHG thru 12 games
Name BB/PA K/PA HR/PA
pujols,albert -14.6% 7.3% 3.1%
holliday,matt* -36.4% 2.5% 27.2%
ludwick,ryan 51.4% 17.1% -53.0%
rasmus,colby 214.0% 45.4% 135.5%

Yeah, I know it's really early, but some of these variations are still pretty extravagant. Holy Rasmus.

* Based on StL number only
Image
Want an easy icon?
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=133
All you have to do is beat a few guys at picking Sunday's winners.[/url]
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14415
(Past Year: -301)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:29 am

StlSluggers wrote:
CARDINALS thru 12 games
Year BB/PA K/PA HR/PA R/PA
2009 8.7% 17.1% 2.6% 12.0%
2010 10.4% 19.6% 3.3% 11.2%
Diff 20.0% 14.5% 24.1% -6.5%


More Holliday, less Ankiel.
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11301
(Past Year: -37)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:11 am

TWO WEEKS.
Curtis Pride
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1362
(Past Year: 3)
Joined: 19 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:21 am

Curtis Pride wrote:TWO WEEKS.


Image

:-?
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11301
(Past Year: -37)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:41 am

AussieDodger wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:
CARDINALS thru 12 games
Year BB/PA K/PA HR/PA R/PA
2009 8.7% 17.1% 2.6% 12.0%
2010 10.4% 19.6% 3.3% 11.2%
Diff 20.0% 14.5% 24.1% -6.5%


More Holliday, less Ankiel.

Shouldn't the K's be down then?
Image
Pogotheostrich
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 20471
(Past Year: -946)
Joined: 9 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Louis

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:43 am

Curtis Pride wrote:TWO WEEKS.

StlSluggers wrote:Yeah, I know it's really early, but some of these variations are still pretty extravagant.
Image
Want an easy icon?
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=133
All you have to do is beat a few guys at picking Sunday's winners.[/url]
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14415
(Past Year: -301)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Apr 20, 2010 1:08 pm

I know! A ~10% sample is outrageously small, particularly at the aggregated team level!!

A quick-and-dirty calculation says that the Cardinals' team HR tendencies are substantially different than last year, on the plus side. Same review also says the Cards' team patience is right on the border of being declared better than last year. The strike out and run differentials are still very much within reason based on last year's production, so we couldn't confidently say that this team is likely to continue striking out more and scoring less.

But it seems very likely that this team is en route to walking more and hitting more home runs than last year's team even though we have less than 60 PAs for all but one player. Now is that due to McGwire? I'd be skeptical. My thread title was simply meant point out the coincidence of his appearance and this shift in hitting. I know there are way too many variables (and one too many Hollidays) to argue that one, retired baseball player could make this much of a difference this quickly.
Image
Want an easy icon?
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewforum.php?f=133
All you have to do is beat a few guys at picking Sunday's winners.[/url]
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14415
(Past Year: -301)
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: McGwire Effect?

Postby Ender » Tue Apr 20, 2010 1:21 pm

Too lazy to look myself but I'm pretty sure this is a general baseball trend in April. Pitchers are wild so they BB more and give up more HR and batters don't have their timing down and K more often. I'd expect some of this at least to just be normal for April.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7705
(Past Year: -28)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests

cron