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McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Mon Apr 19, 2010 11:59 pm
by StlSluggers
CARDINALS thru 12 games
Year BB/PA K/PA HR/PA R/PA
2009 8.7% 17.1% 2.6% 12.0%
2010 10.4% 19.6% 3.3% 11.2%
Diff 20.0% 14.5% 24.1% -6.5%

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:02 am
by Pogotheostrich
They do seem to be relying on the HR more to score runs but it might be too early to draw any conclusions.

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:20 am
by StlSluggers
YoY %CHG thru 12 games
Name BB/PA K/PA HR/PA
pujols,albert -14.6% 7.3% 3.1%
holliday,matt* -36.4% 2.5% 27.2%
ludwick,ryan 51.4% 17.1% -53.0%
rasmus,colby 214.0% 45.4% 135.5%

Yeah, I know it's really early, but some of these variations are still pretty extravagant. Holy Rasmus.

* Based on StL number only

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:29 am
by AussieDodger
StlSluggers wrote:
CARDINALS thru 12 games
Year BB/PA K/PA HR/PA R/PA
2009 8.7% 17.1% 2.6% 12.0%
2010 10.4% 19.6% 3.3% 11.2%
Diff 20.0% 14.5% 24.1% -6.5%


More Holliday, less Ankiel.

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:11 am
by Curtis Pride
TWO WEEKS.

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:21 am
by AussieDodger
Curtis Pride wrote:TWO WEEKS.


Image

:-?

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:41 am
by Pogotheostrich
AussieDodger wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:
CARDINALS thru 12 games
Year BB/PA K/PA HR/PA R/PA
2009 8.7% 17.1% 2.6% 12.0%
2010 10.4% 19.6% 3.3% 11.2%
Diff 20.0% 14.5% 24.1% -6.5%


More Holliday, less Ankiel.

Shouldn't the K's be down then?

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 10:43 am
by StlSluggers
Curtis Pride wrote:TWO WEEKS.

StlSluggers wrote:Yeah, I know it's really early, but some of these variations are still pretty extravagant.

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 1:08 pm
by StlSluggers
I know! A ~10% sample is outrageously small, particularly at the aggregated team level!!

A quick-and-dirty calculation says that the Cardinals' team HR tendencies are substantially different than last year, on the plus side. Same review also says the Cards' team patience is right on the border of being declared better than last year. The strike out and run differentials are still very much within reason based on last year's production, so we couldn't confidently say that this team is likely to continue striking out more and scoring less.

But it seems very likely that this team is en route to walking more and hitting more home runs than last year's team even though we have less than 60 PAs for all but one player. Now is that due to McGwire? I'd be skeptical. My thread title was simply meant point out the coincidence of his appearance and this shift in hitting. I know there are way too many variables (and one too many Hollidays) to argue that one, retired baseball player could make this much of a difference this quickly.

Re: McGwire Effect?

PostPosted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 1:21 pm
by Ender
Too lazy to look myself but I'm pretty sure this is a general baseball trend in April. Pitchers are wild so they BB more and give up more HR and batters don't have their timing down and K more often. I'd expect some of this at least to just be normal for April.