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H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

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H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby khabibul35 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 2:48 am

It's incredibly risky to punt categories, this I know and agree with. I've never tried the strategy, but I joined a keeper league (via takeover) where I'm extremely temped to try it because of my keeper roster:

1)David Wright
2)Mark Teixeira
3)Nelson Cruz
4)Ichiro Suzuki
5)Jimmy Rollins
6)Carlos Lee
7)Aramis Ramírez
8)Shane Victorino
9)Elvis Andrus
10)Joe Nathan

The guys pitching was absolutely putrid and while I can try to make up for it by trying to take SP the first 5 rounds of this years draft, I feel like even then I'll be putting a bandaid on the situation. Instead, I'm thinking I should just stock up on relief and secure 3 or 4 points out of 6. And hopefully win 4 of 6 batting categories for a secure 8-6 win (on average).

Teams: 12
Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL
Batters Stat Categories: Home Runs (HR), Walks (BB), Batting Average (AVG), Slugging Percentage (SLG), Net Stolen Bases (NSB), Plate Appearances (PA)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Innings Pitched (IP), Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), Quality Starts (QS), Net Saves (NSV)

Obviously it's a risk, but I feel like it might be worthwhile. The draft is tomorrow, and I won't see what SP and RP will be available til 1/2 hour before. But, as it stands now, I think I lose ERA, Ks, and QS' based on what SP I project will be kept by other players. By overloading on quality bullpen arms I feel like I can reach the 14 IP limit and win ERA, BBs, NSVs. With a little more power, I think I can get win SLG and HRs too. SBs I feel like I'm solid in and walks can be had as well.

I just wanted to get some opinions on this. I know it's wimpy, but I want to win and I think this might be the way to do it. If the opportunity presents itself to get pitching via draft, I'll go that way but if it's not... is this viable?
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 4:47 am

the question you have to ask yourself: Is this the strategy that I want to use in this league for the next 5 years?

Because I think it's just delaying the inevitable rebuilding that the team needs. I also think you're very optimistic about winning 4 offensive categories. You only have a few power hitters and basestealers. At best I see you going .500 with this team and things looking a lot worse next offseason. just my two cents.

Personally I would start building my team around Tex and Wright (and Andrus) and start working on some trades to bring in some young pitchers (instead of all the SB's that you have) and maybe a promising young bat. the thing that sucks is that you have so many old players that are productive but don't carry a lot of value in keeper leagues. If you can trade ARam, Ichiro, CLee, Rollins or Nathan for anything of value then you should start rebuilding imo.
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby khabibul35 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:05 am

Regarding trying the strategy for the next 5 years... well, I totally agree. One of the aspects of this strategy would be to draft SPs who are primed for a mid to late season call up and stash them in the SP slot while they're in the minors. Hopefully, by the end of the year I'll have at least 2 worth keeping. In the meantime, I won't totally avoid pitchers if I can get a Wandy Rodriguez, Ben Anderson, or even Carlos Carrasco. The problem is the first two probably won't be available come draft time. I just don't want to draft guys like Tim Hudson who'll just contribute to an aging roster going nowhere and still lead me to average at best performance.

That's my main reason for wanting to try it.

Oh, btw, thanks for the input - I just wanted to clear things up a bit and bounce my ideas off someone. I do value your input, and it has made me question this even more, I was just curious as to whether I've justified anything here.
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 5:45 am

From what I can see you are trying too many strategies at once. You need to draft every closer possible to win saves and not kill your ratios. You are drafting promising young SP'ers. And you need to draft some bats to fill out an otherwise solid offense. You only have so many draft picks.

If it were me I would take my lumps this year. Don't draft any closers and then trade Nathan during the season (when he looks good). And concentrate drafting some young bats and starters while grabbing a couple future closers late. And of course you need to trade a few of veteran SB guys because they won't be keepers in 2 years anyway.
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby khabibul35 » Tue Mar 08, 2011 6:04 am

Hmm, I guess that might be the best route, kinda sucks to basically throw in the towel for a year though. :( But if it doesn't work, I guess anyway then I guess it's better to just make steady progress.

Thanks for the input, I'll probably try to avoid RP unless I can get a couple of sure fire guys in consecutive picks (or near consecutive at 2nd to last in the league with a snake draft) and only after 3-4 rounds at that.
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby MTUCache » Tue Mar 08, 2011 8:44 am

I don't know if I'd call it "punting" SP, but I can see where you're going with this.

Your offense is pretty much set. Add a C and one or two low-round prospects and your lineup is filled out.

I can see where you'd definitely want to start grabbing young up-and-coming arms and start trying to build a dominant staff for 2012/2013, but it's tough doing that not knowing what's out there. That said, if you are able to put together a DHudson/Volquez/Hellickson/Cueto/Chacin/Zimmerman (or something like that), you should be able to compete in a weekly league in any week where they have decent matchups. Stream in a a couple of NL West pitchers with good matchups and you could easily take a few SP-categories.

Loading up on closers and young SP shouldn't be all that hard when your entirely lineup is essentially filled out.
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby Sultans of Squat » Tue Mar 08, 2011 4:10 pm

I tend to agree w/ the others and lean toward rebuilding as your primary goal (and looking for sleepers and/or potential future stars and maybe benefit from certain splits, etc., like the NL West pitching suggestion in certain parks, if/when that makes sense).

But yeah, since we don't know exactly what will be out there for the draft (and how things will actually go), it's hard to say w/ any certainty. Who knows? Maybe too many GMs in that league actually set their sights on the same idea and are not prepared to be flexible enough to adjust their game plans (in the spirit of Moneyball).

One thing though. Although you may want/need to deal away your aging, but still productive veterans for something of (future) value, you might need to be careful not to sell too low or buy too high. Be a little patient and find the right deal to meet your needs. Won't do you any good to deal for some low upside future FBB scrub afterall. ;-) Fortunately, w/ this setup, looks like you don't have to worry as much about landing quality real life players that have substantially lower value in FBB (due to the team support aspect of more traditional setups)...
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby khabibul35 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 12:05 am

Unfortunately, there was no (reasonable) SP available as I suspected and so I had to go my gut and get some RP and hope my sleeper picks for SP develop into something viable:

1)David Wright
2)Mark Teixeira
3)Nelson Cruz
4)Ichiro Suzuki
5)Jimmy Rollins
6)Carlos Lee
7)Aramis Ramírez
8)Shane Victorino
9)Elvis Andrus
10)Joe Nathan
-------------------
11. (123) Hunter Pence (Hou - OF)
12. (142) Ben Zobrist (TB - 1B,2B,OF)
13. (147) Andrew Bailey (Oak - RP)
14. (166) Chris Pérez (Cle - RP)
15. (171) John Axford (Mil - RP)
16. (190) Craig Kimbrel (Atl - RP)
17. (195) Hiroki Kuroda (LAD - SP)
18. (214) Ryan Raburn (Det - 2B,OF)
19. (219) Johnny Cueto (Cin - SP)
20. (238) Johan Santana (NYM - SP)
21. (243) Mike Minor (Atl - SP)
22. (262) Jorge Posada (NYY - C)
23. (267) Brian Duensing (Min - SP,RP)
24. (286) Justin Duchscherer (Bal - SP)
25. (291) Carlos Carrasco (Cle - SP)
26. (310) Kyle Farnsworth (TB - RP)
27. (315) Russel Martin (NYY - C)

To give you an idea of how shallow pitching was, these were the players picked between Pence and Zobrist: Carlos Mármol (ChC - RP), Mike Napoli (Tex - C,1B), David Ortiz (Bos - Util), Ricky Romero (Tor - SP), Billy Butler (KC - 1B), Delmon Young (Min - OF), B.J. Upton (TB - OF), Mariano Rivera (NYY - RP), Jeremy Hellickson (TB - SP,RP), Domonic Brown (Phi - OF), Josh Beckett (Bos - SP), Stephen Drew (Ari - SS), Yunel Escobar (Tor - SS), Michael Young (Tex - 3B), Gio González (Oak - SP), David Freese (StL - 3B), Rafael Soriano (NYY - RP), Corey Hart (Mil - OF)

I basically had no choice, and I feel like I did ok with getting Kuroda, Cueto, Santana, Minor, Duensing, Duchscherer, Carrasco as my SP out of the lot that was available. Koruda is really steady, young guys with upside could prove useful in the 2nd half of year and I'll stash Santana onto the DL for a 2nd half run. Meanwhile, I'll try to take the league by storm with my RP and hitting and possibly trade for pitching if I can find buyers for Anrus, Ramirez, etc.

If you guys are interested, I'll let you know how it goes.
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby Sultans of Squat » Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:31 am

Nothing wrong w/ that as long as you ended up w/ some good talent (whether a bit risky or not).

Maybe you can see about dealing some of those RPs along w/ an aging bat or something to a contender for a better keeper as the season progresses...
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Re: H2H league, 14 IP min, punt SP categories? (WHIR)

Postby kab21 » Wed Mar 09, 2011 2:38 am

the good news is that you got enough closers so that you can win 3 pitching categories if you bench your starters. The bad news is that you added very little young talent (or talent in general) to your roster. And I don't think you'll do well on the offensive side. You'll win SB's almost every week and probably do well in BA and PA's but I'm not sure you have enough power to compete in HR's, SLG and BB's (although BB's is tough to guess on).
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