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Best Pitching Staff

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Who has the best pitching staff in baseball?

Chicago Cubs
40
58%
Houston AStros
10
14%
Oakland Athletics
6
9%
Boston Red Sox
13
19%
 
Total votes : 69

Postby blankman » Tue Apr 06, 2004 3:26 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:Let me explain something, though: This is a compendium of the starting pitchers projections--based on the top five starters. It doesn't include Raffy Soriano, for example. This is all about the five starters.



So the projections you have only consider the starting five? If so, how does that make the Boston staff better than the Yankees' if you aren't even accounting for the bullpen?

And to answer your (i.e. Trans') personal attacks earlier, I did take into account the disparity in ability when comparing the pitchers to each other.
I have Mussina as one notch below Pedro (meaning his ability is nearly equal to Pedro's), Brown when healthy, one below Schilling, Vazquez two notches ahead of Lowe (meaning there is a big difference in ability), and I have Contreras and Leiber each one notch above Wakefield and Kim respectively. If you want to conveniently dismiss Vazquez/Lowe as you said before, then sure the Sox rotation is better because the top 2 have more impact than the bottom two. But my contention is that when you take Vazquez/Lowe into account, Vazquez is so much better as to equal out and the disparity caused by Boston's top two. Subsequently the Yankees have a better bullpen and thus have the better staff. Follow Trans?
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Postby blankman » Tue Apr 06, 2004 3:31 pm

Mookie4ever wrote:
Pookey had a 0.969 fielding % last year making 5.6 plays per game.

Walker had a 0.975 fielding % last year making 4.5 plays per game.

Walker got to fewer balls but was steadier.



I don't think you can use plays per game to say that Walker got to fewer balls than Reese. Maybe Walker had less balls hit towards him than Reese, and therefore he couldn't have had as many plays per game. I don't know it for an absolute fact, but I'm sure Reese does have better range than Walker, I just don't think you can you that statistic as evidence of it.

I will agree with you though that Reese will not make a real noticable difference in Lowe's performance.
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Postby thetongueofire » Tue Apr 06, 2004 3:43 pm

blankman wrote:
Transmogrifier wrote:Let me explain something, though: This is a compendium of the starting pitchers projections--based on the top five starters. It doesn't include Raffy Soriano, for example. This is all about the five starters.



So the projections you have only consider the starting five? If so, how does that make the Boston staff better than the Yankees' if you aren't even accounting for the bullpen?

And to answer your (i.e. Trans') personal attacks earlier, I did take into account the disparity in ability when comparing the pitchers to each other.
I have Mussina as one notch below Pedro (meaning his ability is nearly equal to Pedro's), Brown when healthy, one below Schilling, Vazquez two notches ahead of Lowe (meaning there is a big difference in ability), and I have Contreras and Leiber each one notch above Wakefield and Kim respectively. If you want to conveniently dismiss Vazquez/Lowe as you said before, then sure the Sox rotation is better because the top 2 have more impact than the bottom two. But my contention is that when you take Vazquez/Lowe into account, Vazquez is so much better as to equal out and the disparity caused by Boston's top two. Subsequently the Yankees have a better bullpen and thus have the better staff. Follow Trans?


wow ! ure making a lot of assumptions there buddy-

1.) Mussina's ability is nearly equal to Pedro :-P - LoL...
2.) Kevin Brown, when healthy is a notch below Schilling
3.) Vazques is way better than Lowe. how? just because hes on the Yankees...
4.) Contereras is better than Kim when Conteras has never proven himself in the majors- both Contreras and Kim have something to prove this year as starters.
5.) Lieber (who hasnt thrown a pitch in the majors in two years) is better than Wakefield whos been pretty consistant for the past three years.

way too many ???? for me to buy into this whole comparision thing of yours :-?
[size=10]Manny Ramirez....$20 million
Pedro Martinez....$17.5 million
Curt Schilling...$12 million (and a $2 million bonus)
Never hearing a Yankee fan chant 1918 again...priceless. [/size]
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Postby Transmogrifier » Tue Apr 06, 2004 3:50 pm

Blankman, I didn't mean to attack you. Sorry. I just was pointing you out as an example. And I didn't include Lowe just so that we'd have a tie and I could better explain my point. It wasn't to quibble with your individual rankings.

My point was this "notch" idea that you have--you have to take into consideration the difference between players, and not just give it a plus one per "win". Anyway...

So, yes, PECOTA is a projection, but check out their results--it's rather accurate, on the whole. I'd suggest it's better than your analysis. Although, of course, it doesn't include relievers.

I'd also have to point out that PECOTA --and any good predictions/projections--takes into account injuries. Pedro will go on the DL come June/July, and there is no way in hell that Brown starts 30 games. If you are doing your analysis based on the assumption that he will, that's another flaw.

And, Mookie, those results are exactly the reason why Fielding percentage STINKS as a stat. Have you ever watched the two play? If you don't think that the enormous difference in defense--and it is enormous--between Reese and Walker won't have any impact on a super groundball pitcher like Lowe, I have a bridge to sell you...
I'm back. Sorta.

Do not boo Johnny.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Tue Apr 06, 2004 3:55 pm

To back up my point: Reese is a two-time gold glove winner and one of the best defensive second baseman in the league.

His Range Factor last year was 6.43 (league average -- 5.12), in 2002, 5.87 (4.96), and in 2001 (at second), 5.36 (4.86).

Todd Walker's numbers are: 4.75 (4.94), 5.13 (4.96), 5.09 (4.86).

Note especially his numbers last year.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Tue Apr 06, 2004 4:04 pm

Another thing. Guess who led the league in Groundball to Flyball ratio last year?

Yup, Derek Lowe -- 3.92. (Webb is next with 3.44). That's 463 groundballs and 118 flyballs, so you know.

Guess who led it in 2002? 440 flyballs, 127 grounders, and 3.46 ratio. That'd be Derek Lowe.
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Apr 06, 2004 4:08 pm

I conceded that Reese has better range but there is only a 0.003 % difference in their fielding %.

Tell me seriously how many extra runs this difference in range will account for over the course of a season. Give me a prediction.
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Postby Comp625 » Tue Apr 06, 2004 4:10 pm

I'm going to break down each teams' starters and rank them. Then I'll do a cumulative rank at the end.

The teams:
Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees

#1 Starters:
1) Pedro Martinez - BOS - Once he gets his arm back up to full strength, he will continue to reign terror into the eyes of AL batters. He's only had the lowest ERA for the last couple years... ;-D
2) Mike Mussina - NYY - He's a proven pitcher with many years of experience under his belt. He's always been a durable and dependable pitcher too. Always puts up good stats.
3) Kerry Wood - CHC - No one can deny that Wood has nasty stuff. He's always been a 200K+ guy and led the MLB in Strikeouts last year. The best and worst part is, he's still young and everyone predicts doom and gloom for Wood because of how he just appeared on the cover of SI and how Dusty Baker is ruining his arm by keeping him in games too long.
4) Tim Hudson - OAK - Another damn good pitcher with nasty stuff. He plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark too. The offense behind him sucks though...that may be his biggest drawback.
5) Roy Oswalt - HOU - Despite last year's injury-laden season, he's still a damn good young pitcher. He's just not as good as Wood or Prior in the dominating young-pitchers category. But he's got All-Star stuff.

#2 Starters
1) Curt Schilling - BOS - Do I even need to talk about him?
2) Kevin Brown - NYY - No one can deny that when Brown is healthy, he is simply nasty. I looked at his numbers and it was really only 2001 and 2002 in which he was injured. He stayed relatively healthy last year and hopefully can continue the streak.
3) Greg Maddux - CHC - As long as this old man can snipe the corners like he's been able to all of his career, he will be a terrifying pitcher. Just hope he doesn't repeat his 1st half of the 2003 season woes.
4) Andy Pettitte - HOU - Although a little overrated in Fantasy Baseball, he's still a nasty pitcher who KNOWS how to rack in the Wins. Pitching in the NL will help out his 4.xx ERA (due to him facing a pitcher versus a DH).
5) Mark Mulder - I love how he can pitch complete games. I wish he would rack in more K's though. Him and Pettitte are pretty equal in my book in terms of skill but Mulder plays behind a poor-offensive team.


#3 Starters
1) Javier Vazquez - NYY - He's also had a really good Spring Training. I'm liking his chances playing for a team that can win 100 games. A possible 20 game winner here, folks. The amount of K's that he racks up isn't too bad either. ;-D
2) Barry Zito - OAK - You can't deny this southpaw of his pitching skills. He's had a nasty spring and will probably continue that momentum during the season.
3) Mark Prior - CHC - If he had started off this year being healthy, He would have been #1 in the #3 starters category. Pitching skill wise, he's got Zito beat. Fantasy wise, missing the first month and a half of pitching hurts his fantasy value. That's why I moved him down to #3 in this list.
4) Roger Clemens - HOU - At the age of 40, he's still wheelin' and dealin' but when you compare his recent stats versus the stats of the youngers listed above, he appears somewhat inferior.
5) Derek Lowe - BOS - His home/road splits are erratic to say the least. He's also quite overrated IMO, especially for the numbers he put up last year. The only category that he excelled in was Wins (17). Hopefully, Reese's glove + Garciaparra coming back in May will help this groundball pitcher out.

#4 Starters
1) Tim Wakefield - BOS - This is a tough category to judge because most of the #4 starters seem equally good. However, Wakefield gets the #1 because of his knuckleball that makes hitters look silly. Not to mention he has the advantage of playing behind a team that will give him run support.
2) Wade Miller - HOU - Clemens' influence on him will allow him to mature as a pitcher. He's always displayed good stuff. He just gets hit a little more often than I would like. He can also be a bit erratic. He's also a #2/#3 pitcher if it wasn't for the addition of Pettitte & Clemens.
3) Jose Contreras - NYY - His splitfinger has fooled many hitters this Spring. He's shown small instances of living up to his hype during last year as well as in Spring Training this year. Maybe he's finally settling down comfortably in the NY media spotlight.
4) Matt Clement - CHC - He has the stuff to be a good pitcher. However, when he gets lost on the mound, he definitely gets lost. Still a good pitcher who can definitely rack up alot of K's.
5) Mark Redman - OAK - This southpaw is displayed good stuff with Florida. However, he was iffy with Detroit. I'm hoping he matured down in Florida and will be able to carry his newfound stuff to Oakland.

#5 Starters
1) Carlos Zambrano - CHC - In my opinion, he came out of nowhere last year so he's still unproven. He displayed damn good stuff last year and I'm pretty high on him this year as well.
2) Byung Yum Kim - BOS - Haha, I butchered his name but for a #5 starter, he posts pretty darn good. He just becomes shaky in tight situations or the playoffs. A close toss-up between him and Zambrano for #1 and #2 in my opinion.
3) Rich Harden - OAK - His debut last year was a bit disappointing considering how some even considered him the next Mark Prior. However, he had a magnificent Minor League career. He just needs to mature into the pitcher that he's fully capable of. He's still a more than qualified #5 starter.
4) Tim Redding - HOU - Despite posting 5.xx ERAs in 2001 and 2002, his 2003 totals were damn good. He does let a little too many players on base though (1.39 WHIP). He's truly a #3/#4 starter who's underrated in my book.
5) Jon Lieber/Donovan Osbourne - NYY - Lieber had All-Star caliber material before his Tommy John surgury. Unfortunately, I don't know if he'll ever be the same. Osbourne is just blah. And this is coming from a Yankee fan.
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Postby bucsfan04 » Tue Apr 06, 2004 5:52 pm

Comp625 wrote:
#1 Starters:
1) Pedro Martinez - BOS - Once he gets his arm back up to full strength, he will continue to reign terror into the eyes of AL batters. He's only had the lowest ERA for the last couple years... ;-D
2) Mike Mussina - NYY - He's a proven pitcher with many years of experience under his belt. He's always been a durable and dependable pitcher too. Always puts up good stats.
3) Kerry Wood - CHC - No one can deny that Wood has nasty stuff. He's always been a 200K+ guy and led the MLB in Strikeouts last year. The best and worst part is, he's still young and everyone predicts doom and gloom for Wood because of how he just appeared on the cover of SI and how Dusty Baker is ruining his arm by keeping him in games too long.
4) Tim Hudson - OAK - Another damn good pitcher with nasty stuff. He plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark too. The offense behind him sucks though...that may be his biggest drawback.
5) Roy Oswalt - HOU - Despite last year's injury-laden season, he's still a damn good young pitcher. He's just not as good as Wood or Prior in the dominating young-pitchers category. But he's got All-Star stuff.


How can you rank Hudson 4th! If not for blown saves, he would have had 20 wins last year, along with a 2.70 ERA, 162 SOs, a 1.08 WHIP, and a .223 BA against.
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Postby blankman » Tue Apr 06, 2004 8:40 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:My point was this "notch" idea that you have--you have to take into consideration the difference between players, and not just give it a plus one per "win". Anyway...


How is saying that Schilling is only one notch better than Brown, but Vaz is 2 notches better than Lowe not considering difference between players? I don't follow what you are saying. I'm not simply saying one player is better than the other, but how much better he is than the other.
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