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Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby jcook3127 » Fri May 04, 2012 12:18 am

Alright I just poured into his numbers for a couple minutes

Some points:

-He's swinging at 33% more pitches outside the strike zone than he did last year. (and 100% more than his career average)

-He's also contacting those pitches better than he ever has.

-In general, he is swinging at more pitches than he ever has. This correlates to an insanely low walk rate for Albert..almost half of what it usually is.

- 25% line drives, and high contact rates suggest that this guy has not forgotten how to play baseball

Conclusions: Pressing extremely hard, not letting the game come to him, not being selective enough with his at bats...
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby Izenhart » Fri May 04, 2012 2:08 am

jcook3127 wrote:Alright I just poured into his numbers for a couple minutes

Some points:

-He's swinging at 33% more pitches outside the strike zone than he did last year. (and 100% more than his career average)

-He's also contacting those pitches better than he ever has.

-In general, he is swinging at more pitches than he ever has. This correlates to an insanely low walk rate for Albert..almost half of what it usually is.

- 25% line drives, and high contact rates suggest that this guy has not forgotten how to play baseball

Conclusions: Pressing extremely hard, not letting the game come to him, not being selective enough with his at bats...


And what happens when a hitter starts swinging at bad pitches? Pitchers never throw them a good pitch. So his contact rate is hurting him here. I think his swing is slower and he's trying to make up for it by opening up too early, forcing him to commit on pitches he shouldn't.

Either way good news! I just traded for Pujols in my main league so he's going to snap out of it in a big big way this weekend. I have ridiculous luck with trades ending up in my favor. :-D
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby AussieDodger » Fri May 04, 2012 2:26 am

I wonder if he's playing through an injury......even his BB/K is out of whack.
I owned him last year, and even in his worst month (May) he had a BB/K of 12/11.

:-?
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby rjforlife » Fri May 04, 2012 5:53 am

PAPER BAG TIME!!!!!
Goldy is King.
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby GAC8666 » Fri May 04, 2012 10:27 am

jcook3127 wrote:Alright I just poured into his numbers for a couple minutes

Some points:
-He's swinging at 33% more pitches outside the strike zone than he did last year. (and 100% more than his career average)
-He's also contacting those pitches better than he ever has.
-In general, he is swinging at more pitches than he ever has. This correlates to an insanely low walk rate for Albert..almost half of what it usually is.
- 25% line drives, and high contact rates suggest that this guy has not forgotten how to play baseball

Conclusions: Pressing extremely hard, not letting the game come to him, not being selective enough with his at bats...



That is great stuff. Expectations are a crazy thing. It makes people do things they would never regularly do in every day situations. When people talked about Pujols, they always mentioned the crazy plate discipline.
Pujols was dealt during the 1st week of the year in my league for... Jose Reyes and Pablo Sandoval. Been an underwhelming trade all around.
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby ytorf » Fri May 04, 2012 12:33 pm

Interesting article about his lower walk rate on Baseball Prospectus last week:
In the second half [of 2011], he drew just 15 unintentional walks. Jeff Francoeur drew 15 unintentional walks in the second half of 2011. Excluding intentional passes, Jeff Francouer and Albert Pujols walked the same number of times in the second half. I’m going to keep repeating this fact until each of you has audibly said “wow.” Jeff Francouer and Albert Pujols walked the same number of times in the second half of 2011. Jeff Francouer and Albert Pujols walked the same number of times in the second half of 2011. We ready to move on?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=16628
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby hot4tx » Fri May 04, 2012 1:54 pm

I think his swing is slower and he's trying to make up for it by opening up too early, forcing him to commit on pitches he shouldn't.

Unless he's really 39 years old right now I can't see a reason that you'd expect his swing to be that dramatically slower from last year to this year. Also he was killing it in spring ball, so if his swing was colossally slower you'd expect him not to have had that success a few months ago. I tend to agree with the previous poster that I think this is all just him pressing to earn his contract and not bringing a good approach. Makes sense that in the spring he had little pressure, but even after the first series in the regular season people were talking about him not homering yet. Seems like he could start pressing and spiral downward. Has this guy ever dealt with personal failure in baseball in his life? Might be the first time he's ever had to go through this.

Help me Albert Pujols. You're my only hope. :-/
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Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby Mikdonn2 » Fri May 04, 2012 7:25 pm

Izenhart wrote:
jcook3127 wrote:Alright I just poured into his numbers for a couple minutes

Some points:

-He's swinging at 33% more pitches outside the strike zone than he did last year. (and 100% more than his career average)

-He's also contacting those pitches better than he ever has.

-In general, he is swinging at more pitches than he ever has. This correlates to an insanely low walk rate for Albert..almost half of what it usually is.

- 25% line drives, and high contact rates suggest that this guy has not forgotten how to play baseball

Conclusions: Pressing extremely hard, not letting the game come to him, not being selective enough with his at bats...


And what happens when a hitter starts swinging at bad pitches? Pitchers never throw them a good pitch. So his contact rate is hurting him here. I think his swing is slower and he's trying to make up for it by opening up too early, forcing him to commit on pitches he shouldn't.

Either way good news! I just traded for Pujols in my main league so he's going to snap out of it in a big big way this weekend. I have ridiculous luck with trades ending up in my favor. :-D



Just curious, who did you trade him for? I have been getting tons of offers but nothing that I love
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby jcook3127 » Fri May 04, 2012 10:38 pm

rjforlife wrote:PAPER BAG TIME!!!!!


haha..Pujols is a bum
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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Re: Will Pujols hit a HR in 2012?

Postby Izenhart » Fri May 04, 2012 10:53 pm

Mikdonn2 wrote:
Izenhart wrote:
jcook3127 wrote:Alright I just poured into his numbers for a couple minutes

Some points:

-He's swinging at 33% more pitches outside the strike zone than he did last year. (and 100% more than his career average)

-He's also contacting those pitches better than he ever has.

-In general, he is swinging at more pitches than he ever has. This correlates to an insanely low walk rate for Albert..almost half of what it usually is.

- 25% line drives, and high contact rates suggest that this guy has not forgotten how to play baseball

Conclusions: Pressing extremely hard, not letting the game come to him, not being selective enough with his at bats...


And what happens when a hitter starts swinging at bad pitches? Pitchers never throw them a good pitch. So his contact rate is hurting him here. I think his swing is slower and he's trying to make up for it by opening up too early, forcing him to commit on pitches he shouldn't.

Either way good news! I just traded for Pujols in my main league so he's going to snap out of it in a big big way this weekend. I have ridiculous luck with trades ending up in my favor. :-D



Just curious, who did you trade him for? I have been getting tons of offers but nothing that I love


Carlos Beltran.

My offer was more on a whim, I saw the guy has Paul Konerko at his DH slot, we only get 1 DH slot in this league, so this trade gives him more flexibility as his OF's are bad: Cody Ross, Juan Rivera, Luke Scott. 14 team league, the hitter pool is slightly more shallow than a typical yahoo league.
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