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Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:17 pm
by Ender
bayside wrote:I think right now he is clearly a top 10 SP going forward


I don't think he would make my top 10. Looked at it again and he might sneak into the bottom of the top 10 because of some bad starts towards the bottom.

I still would not take him over Verlander, Strasburg, Kershaw, Lee, Wainwright, Price, Felix, Hamels for sure. Then there is a group of pitchers that he is right in the mix with.

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:22 pm
by Izenhart
Skin Blues wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:Darvish has me :-) from head to toe.

This created a very weird visual for me. I was expecting it to end with "ear to ear".


Stewie from family guy smiling sideways?

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2013 11:18 pm
by Ender
To support my point. Here are his last 5 starts.

34 IP, 15 ER, 3.97 ERA, 38 H+BB, 42 K, 3 W

So for fantasy that is

34 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3 W, 42 K.

I'm not sure that is really a top 10 starter. I also don't like that he is relying so heavily on his slider which tends to lead to health issues. He might be the bottom end of the top 10 but he isn't the top 5 guy people seem to think he is in my mind at least.

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Tue May 21, 2013 11:25 pm
by bayside
At this point would you really want any of Price (not even taking into account his DL stint), Hamels, or Cain over Darvish?
I wouldnt, and I had Price and Hamels inside my top 6 going into the season.

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 1:45 am
by Skin Blues
Cherry-picked arbitrary end points and he still has a 1.12 WHIP and 11+ K/9. He's a top 5 pitcher right now, and damn close to #1. He's managed to get his walks down closer to what he did in Japan while allowing contact on only 65% of swings which would be the lowest recorded rate since that data has been kept; a huge improvement in a category where he already led the major leagues in his rookie season. He also has the highest SwStr% since Johan Santana in 2004. Sure it helps that he's face the Astros in 2 of his 9 starts, but they're in his division so he'll get at least a few more games against them this season. At this point, Kershaw is probably the only pitcher I'd take ahead of him.

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 8:59 am
by J35J
Skin Blues wrote:Cherry-picked arbitrary end points and he still has a 1.12 WHIP and 11+ K/9. He's a top 5 pitcher right now, and damn close to #1. He's managed to get his walks down closer to what he did in Japan while allowing contact on only 65% of swings which would be the lowest recorded rate since that data has been kept; a huge improvement in a category where he already led the major leagues in his rookie season. He also has the highest SwStr% since Johan Santana in 2004. Sure it helps that he's face the Astros in 2 of his 9 starts, but they're in his division so he'll get at least a few more games against them this season. At this point, Kershaw is probably the only pitcher I'd take ahead of him.


Agreed. Without looking it over I can't say for sure he'd be my #2 guy right now but he's certainly top 10.

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 9:10 am
by Ender
There is absolutely no way I'd take Darvish over Verlander or even Strasburg at this point and I'm not even a Strasburg guy. I'd also easily take Felix over him. So at the very best he is #5. After that there is a group of 10 or so guys who just depend on league type, in a league where I care about K over anything else Darvish is the easy #5 but in leagues where ratios matter more I don't believe he is going to keep the low ERA that other aces will.

And I'm not 'cherry picking' anything. If you take his full career to date he is not a top 5 pitcher. People were rating him based on the final 7 starts of last year and saying that the first few starts of this year shows that it wasn't a 'fluke', I'm just showing that he now has a month long stretch that looks a lot more like the early part of last year than the late part. People were pointing to those first 5 starts against the worst offenses in baseball in April and saying that it somehow proved that the first 2/3 of 2012 didn't matter and only the last 1/3 did.

Using the yahoo player rater (which is awful mind you), he is the #4 overall pitcher right now but in the past 30 days he is #12, I believe more in the past 30 days number than the overall is all I'm saying.

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 10:50 am
by NikkiSixx
Ender wrote:To support my point. Here are his last 5 starts.

34 IP, 15 ER, 3.97 ERA, 38 H+BB, 42 K, 3 W

So for fantasy that is

34 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 3 W, 42 K.

I'm not sure that is really a top 10 starter. I also don't like that he is relying so heavily on his slider which tends to lead to health issues. He might be the bottom end of the top 10 but he isn't the top 5 guy people seem to think he is in my mind at least.

Yu Darvish is the exact same pitcher that he has been all season, he is just giving up home runs a lot more this month. Probably has something to do with the increase number of starts at home and the warmer weather.... Everything else looks stable to me.

If anything his home and away splits are a great indicator of why he has ran into a speed bump in May... 4 of his last 5 starts have been at home.


Seeing as how he only gave up 14 home runs all of last year I wouldn't worry TOO much about the long ball. It will all even itself out and he will be somewhere in the middle of what he's been. But he IS a top 10 pitcher due to the strikeouts... Even if he does continue the stretch of his last 5 starts. At least in my opinion.

Re: Yu Darvish apparently a fantasy ace?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 1:15 pm
by AHF
Me personally? I think he's still too wild to be taken that high and will end up being a Tim Lincecum type. ;-D


Famous last words...