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Re: Price?

PostPosted: Thu May 16, 2013 5:45 pm
by bayside
and FWIW i also had Hamels ranked ahead of Darvish, like most everyone else, so Im not trying to call anyone out. Just pointing out that theres not really any way to confirm or deny that anyone is an 'expert'.

Re: Price?

PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2013 9:24 am
by converge241
And with Chris Archer starting as scheduled for Triple-A Durham today, would seem Odorizzi will be #Rays choice for Monday in Toronto

Marc Topkin, TBTimes

Re: Price?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 2:16 am
by Skin Blues
wrveres wrote:im looking at the steamer projections right now.

name	ERA	K	WHIP	W
Darvish 3.38 194.9 1.2 14.5
Hamels 3.4 205 1.15 15.6

looks like they favored Hamels.

but you are still missing the point. Everybody had Darvish going about 10 pitchers after Hamels. Taking him where they did was silly, i.e. not expertish.

Those aren't the Steamer projections I have. In the ones I see, the WHIP gap is 0.03 in favour of Hamels and the ERA gap is 0.05 in favour of Darvish, and both have 15 wins although Darvish does it in 15 less innings. Darvish's K/9 was projected to be 9.5 vs 8.6 for Hamels. That's a very big K/9 gap, much bigger than the gap in their ERA or WHIP. And in roto leagues, counting stats for pitchers are essentially rate stats since every competitive team will use up all of their innings. Call it a wash though, it's close enough. Darvish clearly had more upside than his median projection, along with more risk. But of course Mr Hyperbole says, "There is very little upside in Darvish". Yes, perhaps the most dominant strikeout pitcher in baseball with an established history of elite control has very little upside. That makes a lot of sense.

I'm not saying I predicted doom for Hamels, and I'm sure he'll be fine, but it was not crazy to take Darvish over him. Risky, maybe, but not crazy. Fantasy leagues aren't often won by playing it safe. I tend to avoid pretty much all high-end starting pitchers because they are way too overpriced and have a lot of injury risk. This year the only top-end SPs I targeted were Scherzer and Darvish since they were the only two with reasonable ADPs relative to their value. Unfortunately I missed them in most of my leagues which were all done by auction, so all it took was one other guy that was really high on a player to miss out on him.

Re: Price?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:18 am
by cordscords
He has lost some juice on the fastball, but since he’s actually gained some zip on his curve and changeup, I’m optimistic the flames will come back. Playing in the AL East is always a tall task, but his matchups have been even tougher than usual. Only 1 offense he’s faced has been in the bottom half of league scoring, and that’s the Blue Jays who are #16 out of 30. Soon enough he will wind up with a softer schedule to pad his stats a bit.

Re: Price?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 9:56 am
by Ender
wrveres wrote:im looking at the steamer projections right now.

name	ERA	K	WHIP	W
Darvish 3.38 194.9 1.2 14.5
Hamels 3.4 205 1.15 15.6

looks like they favored Hamels.

but you are still missing the point. Everybody had Darvish going about 10 pitchers after Hamels. Taking him where they did was silly, i.e. not expertish.


His point was to attack me as clearly seen by the next silly post which is half truths at best, it isn't really about Darvish at this point. I'd just let it drop, and yeah those numbers favor Hamels but again that wasn't really the point. There are a small handful of posters who are much more interested in getting in pissing contests than trying to help each other and he is one of them and it has become personal for him apparently.

Anyway back on topic, stinks that Price got hurt but everything in his stat line suggests he is still the same ace as last year. I wouldn't be even a tiny bit worried about velocity loss in April either, you'll notice that every single post seems to talk about someones velocity being down, it is early season and weather related as the velocity is down all over the league still. If you look at entire team numbers the velocity on FA range from 90.0 to 93.1 with only 1 teams averaging over 93 and the 15th rated team at 91.4. Last year for the season it was 90 to 93.6 with the 15th rated team at 91.8 and 4 teams averaging over 93. As the season goes on you will see velocity pick up league wide. Every year a big group of pitchers has their velocity down to start the year and most of them will pick it up in the summer,some won't but most will.

Re: Price?

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 11:54 am
by chargerss24
I thought this thread was about David Price. :-?

Re: Price?

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2013 2:50 am
by OBPlover
Ender wrote:
wrveres wrote:im looking at the steamer projections right now.



Anyway back on topic, stinks that Price got hurt but everything in his stat line suggests he is still the same ace as last year.


Actually his HR% has been a lot worse.