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Zack Greinke's upside comparisons?

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Zack Greinke's upside comparisons?

Postby The Jury » Tue Jun 22, 2004 10:39 am

Of today's established pitchers, which do think represents the roof of Zack Greinke's potential stat-wise?

I'm going with a Mulder or Tim Hudson upside for Zack.
The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.
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Postby thetongueofire » Tue Jun 22, 2004 10:40 am

Glavine. :-D
[size=10]Manny Ramirez....$20 million
Pedro Martinez....$17.5 million
Curt Schilling...$12 million (and a $2 million bonus)
Never hearing a Yankee fan chant 1918 again...priceless. [/size]
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Postby thehat » Tue Jun 22, 2004 11:14 am

I think his ceiling is stud level, even higher than the guys mentioned. Assuming the Royals don't overwork him over the next couple seasons, he has a chance to be extraordinary. I think his slider, already very good, will become his out pitch and that his K rate will rise in time. Has a legit chance to become a Top Five starter with good health, and I rate him as the best pitching prospect in the game, ahead of even Edwin Jackson.
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Postby stumpak » Tue Jun 22, 2004 11:53 am

He has a CHANCE. The upside rarely pans out with young pitchers--look at Wood, people are still talking about his upside potential and he has been around for years. Arm trouble, mechanics, batters seeing guys 2nd and 3rd times, all kinds of stuff can and usually does go wrong.
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Postby AI8818 » Tue Jun 22, 2004 11:53 am

Agreed with post above.
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Postby pilambp » Tue Jun 22, 2004 12:59 pm

He's been likened to Maddux with his control.
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Postby jojo » Tue Jun 22, 2004 3:36 pm

I have his ceiling between GLAVINE and REUTER... tough call
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Postby stumpak » Tue Jun 22, 2004 4:18 pm

Of course the Royals are going to say great things about him--have you ever heard an organization take a guy #1 and come back two years later and say "We think he has the potential to be a solid major league starter. He could be the next Steve Traschel." Of course not, they have too much vested in these guys and will always talk them up and compare them to elite big league pitchers like Maddux.

There are usually 3-5 pitchers that are top 10 picks each in the draft each year. Go back and look at the results, about one per year at best becomes a stud MLB pitcher, but they all have great "upside", or else they wouldn't be drafted. Talking about upside is useless, its far more useful to talk about the most probable baseline. Sadly, history indicates that the odds are that Grienke will not achieve his upside.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Jun 22, 2004 6:18 pm

jojo wrote:I have his ceiling between GLAVINE and REUTER... tough call


lol Reuter and upside should never be in the same sentence. BTW that is an awful comparison too.

I'm going with the Maddux comparison just because most all scouts seem to think it.
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Postby hybrid » Tue Jun 22, 2004 6:22 pm

stumpak wrote:Of course the Royals are going to say great things about him--have you ever heard an organization take a guy #1 and come back two years later and say "We think he has the potential to be a solid major league starter. He could be the next Steve Traschel." Of course not, they have too much vested in these guys and will always talk them up and compare them to elite big league pitchers like Maddux.

There are usually 3-5 pitchers that are top 10 picks each in the draft each year. Go back and look at the results, about one per year at best becomes a stud MLB pitcher, but they all have great "upside", or else they wouldn't be drafted. Talking about upside is useless, its far more useful to talk about the most probable baseline. Sadly, history indicates that the odds are that Grienke will not achieve his upside.


Honestly, you sound like someone that is informed about the draft and probilities, but not informed about Greinke. Very few of those pitchers drafted make it to the big leagues so quickly and have the success he has had so early in his career.
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