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Don't Believe the Hype!!!!

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Don't Believe the Hype!!!!

Postby Smizzy » Sun Jun 27, 2004 11:28 pm

There are alot of guys out there who are On fire and a couple who have burned up most of the 1st half....

Pavano
Penny
Mora
Beltre
Abreu
Lawton

and many more..


Who is just hot and who is the real deal?

Should we be shopping these hot players before they fizzle out?
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Jun 27, 2004 11:31 pm

Out of those you listed

Abreu and Beltre are for real. Beltre's average will go down, though into the .290s or .280s.

Penny's ERA will be above 3.5...at least.

Pavano's will get closer to 3.8.

Mora's going to be a high average hitter....310s? Power's a fluke, though, IMO. Injuries are concerning.

Lawton'll get hurt or start sucking.
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Postby Smizzy » Sun Jun 27, 2004 11:35 pm

Should i be selling high on every one?
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Postby GSes » Sun Jun 27, 2004 11:39 pm

Pavano
He isnt this good, but he is going to have a career year, will cool off but still valuable)

Penny
(not been good lately, still racking up the K's, I liked him over Pavano now im not sure, both are kind of hard to tell, may be legit, may not)

Mora
Will cool off, but will still be a valuable fantasy player, should finish a top five or six 3B

Beltre
Should hit some major slump, b/c he has poor playe discipline, expect him to be streaky for the rest of the year, but at the end will have nice numbers and has realised his potential.

Abreu
30/30? Looks like he will be, I think he will cool down a litle bit, but is having a career year. He is not Beltran, however a 100/30/100/30/300 season is what one would call Fantasy Greatness. S-T-U-D


Lawton
this guy is hard to figure out, where this 5 category production came from, no idea. He has no choice but to come back down to earth soon enough
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Postby warrick95 » Sun Jun 27, 2004 11:39 pm

Without a question, yes on all but Abreu and Beltre...

Abreu...maybe not. Citizens Bank is looking really good for lefty power hitters Abreu and Thome, so he may not slow that down. He's been stealing bases at a good percentage, too. He just didn't get the green light much until later on last year, which hurt his numbers, and also was battling minor injuries, I believe. Abreu's power/speed is also very rare. Beltran and Soriano are the only other players that come close to matching that input.

Beltre, perhaps. He's battling an ankle injury which obviously hurts. He'll get surgery after the year. It is his contract year, though...so there's extra incentive to play well. If you can sell him pretty high, go ahead, but I wouldn't be surprised if he continues this. He's 26 and always considered a very high potential player.
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Postby tmoney » Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:21 am

Wow, still not love for Penny anywhere. I will never understand it.... :-?
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Postby slomo007 » Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:22 am

I would trust Penny more than Pavano. As long as we take girlfriends out of the picture...though I've never seen Brad's.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:45 am

I'd trust Penny, Mora, and Abreu the most out of those guys. Why is everybody all of a sudden convinced this is the real Beltre? His BA's the past 3 seasons: .265, .257, .240. He hits over .310 for a couple months and all of a sudden people trust him to keep it up.............I don't get it. His stats at the end of the year will look good but you have to realize that a lot of that is already accounted for. If he finishes the year batting .280 with 30 HR (career year for him) that will mean he batted .240 with 8 HR in the seocnd half. I'd definately sell high on him.
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Postby beltrans_boy » Mon Jun 28, 2004 1:11 am

LBJackal wrote:I'd trust Penny, Mora, and Abreu the most out of those guys. Why is everybody all of a sudden convinced this is the real Beltre? His BA's the past 3 seasons: .265, .257, .240. He hits over .310 for a couple months and all of a sudden people trust him to keep it up.............I don't get it. His stats at the end of the year will look good but you have to realize that a lot of that is already accounted for. If he finishes the year batting .280 with 30 HR (career year for him) that will mean he batted .240 with 8 HR in the seocnd half. I'd definately sell high on him.


The thing about Beltre is...he's always been a GREAT career 2nd-half hitter. He's usually ice cold for the first 3-4 months of the season. He's always been an A+ prospect. He's only 26. He's in a career year. He's got more "protection" (and I use that term loosely) in the lineup with Bradley and Encarnacion. Will he keep up this torrid pace? Of course not, but I think his .240 days are behind him.
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Postby CrazyPooja90 » Mon Jun 28, 2004 2:42 am

I'm pretty sold on Pavano. 6 wins straight, 8 k's tonight, dating Alyssa Milano.

He's also pretty dependable as far as innings go. I can't remember the last time he didn't go AT LEAST 7 innings.

As far as everyone else you listed? I'm not entirely sure, but I doubt any of them will be a huge bust.
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