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Does the Juice really help?

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Postby pokerplaya » Thu Jul 01, 2004 12:15 am

It's absolutely impossible to draw conclusions from past seasons statistics and believe that they are relevant and contain a positive causality. Just because homeruns only inreased .003 does not prove anything. There are far too many variables, so drawing one conclusion from season to season isn't very helpful.

The only way to even begin to try and develop a hypothesis on the effectiveness of steriods is once and if those who are being indicted are found guilty of usage, to compare their stats from pre-usage seasons to when they were abusing. Even then, their are other factors that go in, so the causality will have an error rate regardless. However, that is the only way to try and figure out how "effective" they are, and until they are proven to be using this issue is moot.
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Postby homerunhitter » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:07 am

Batting is very much a mental game. That is why it is common for hitters to get "hot" and start crushing the ball. When a hitter is hot, his confidence is way up. When things start going wrong for them, their confidence dips and then its common for hitters to go into a slump. As any baseball player will tell you, when your confidence is up, everything seems to work. But, when you get into a slump, you start second guessing yourself. If the slump continues, thats when confidence is at its lowest and hitters try to think too much, or make adjustments to their approach.

The increased testosterone caused by steroids obviously leads to enhanced strength, but it also plays a huge factor on a person's attitude. This is why meat-heads go into "roid rages," and act cocky as all hell. I bet a lot of the benefit of steroids can be attributed to the confidence and "bad-ass" attitude players feel.
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well put

Postby j8333 » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:43 pm

I was about to post bascially the same thing. I think the confidence factor plays a huge role in the success of steroid users. See the Ken Caminiti interview where he admitted winning the MVP due to steroid use. He basically said it made him feel like he could do anything. That is what a lot of people forget about. It's not just the added strength.
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Postby jpusl19 » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:55 pm

The part that bugs me is when you hear Brett Boone's, Vernon Wells, etc homerun totals are down because they are testing now and can't take steroids. Many act like you have all of this strength on roids, and the second you stop taking them you lose that strength. Steroids build muscle that if you keep working out and get off of the steroids you will maintain most of the muscle you built on them. So yeah bonds and etc might have taken them a couple years back but they are still reaping the benefits today regardless if they are on them at this moment.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:55 pm

Amazinz wrote:This is the wrong angle from which to look at the steroid issue. I don't believe steroids are used by a majority of the league or even half for that matter. Analyzing league-wide statistics from one year to the next doesn't really prove anything.


Great point.
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Postby jpusl19 » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:56 pm

The part that bugs me is when you hear Brett Boone's, Vernon Wells, etc homerun totals are down because they are testing now and can't take steroids. Many act like you have all of this strength on roids, and the second you stop taking them you lose that strength. Steroids build muscle that if you keep working out and get off of the steroids you will maintain most of the muscle you built on them. So yeah bonds and etc might have taken them a couple years back but they are still reaping the benefits today regardless if they are on them at this moment.
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Postby Apollo » Thu Jul 01, 2004 2:38 pm

I read (can't site a source, unfortunately, I forget) that the MLB hasn't done any testing at all yet this year. It's the only weapon they have, and they don't wnat to lose it by (ironically) using it. When they test, it will be late in the year so that players can't start taking anything afterwards.
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Postby josebach » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:34 pm

LBJackal wrote:Plus, most of Barry's shots are a mile over the fence. YOu dont' see many of them that just clear it. Steroids would only help his distance, and help him to stay healthy, so you can attribute mostly all of his HR's to his amazing hand-eye coordination and his super-quick swing.


This is the argument I most get tired of. Steroids isn't the difference between a 350 foot home run and a 400 foot home run. Steroids is the difference between a 350 foot home run and swing and miss.

There are two non-environmental factors that go into determining how far a baseball goes.
1) Bat Speed
2) Bat Weight

What steroids allow hitters to do is reach their maximum bat speed faster than they could have otherwise. This gives them extra time to determine what kind of pitch is thrown and identify where it's going to be located.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:36 pm

There is a direct correlation between bat speed and the distance of ball flight.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Thu Jul 01, 2004 3:39 pm

When Barry Bonds was younger, he still had great plate vision and bat speed. Where was the homers then? He was hitting doubles into the gap. Now, those doubles are flying out of the ball park when hes 40.
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