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GOOD STRATEGY??

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GOOD STRATEGY??

Postby Lofunzo » Wed Sep 15, 2004 12:41 am

I am 1/2 point out of 1st in my roto league and am considering a pitching strategy. I have 85.2 IP left and have a starting staff of:

Schmidt
Schilling
Hudson
Beckett

If I play my cards right, I figure that Schilling and Schmidt should have 4 starts each left. Assuming that they average 6-7 innings each, that works out to 48-56 innings between them. I can also spot start Hudson or Beckett in favorable matchups. I am also starting 5 closers and have 2 MR on my team. Between everyone, I should hit my UP max with no problem.

The only thing that I am worried about is that while winning all cats except wins, I only have 2/10 points in wins. This is where I can catch up on the leader as he leads that cat with 10 points. That means that I could potentially make up 8 points, although that's not realistic. Here's the wins breakdown:

1st - 85 W with 50.1 IP left
*2nd - 83 W with 0 IP left
*3rd - 80 W with 0 IP left
T-4th - 78 W with 73.2 IP left
T-4th - 78 W with 13 IP left
*6th - 75 W with 0 IP left
*7th - 74 W with 0 IP left
*8th - 71 W with 0 IP left
9th - 70 W with 85 IP left
10th - 68 W with 93.2 IP left

*This person is maxed out in IP.

Bolded is me.

The way that I see it, realistically, I could move up to 5th, depending on what happens to the 2nd team tied at 4th. I am a little worried about the guy behind me but he has been spot starting guys. I think that I could make up 4 points in wins. Am I way off??

I apologize for this ramble and thank everyone for their comments.
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Postby bleach168 » Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:33 am

I can see you getting 3 points. That would already require getting a win every 14 innings which isn't that easy. Getting the fourth point would be much harder considering you need 3 wins just for that extra point.

Hopefully one of the persons you are passing is the second place guy. That would be icing.

If you don't need the saves, I would consider benching the MR and closers to get extra starts in. You have really good SP's and I would hate missing any of their starts.
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:50 am

bleach168 wrote:I can see you getting 3 points. That would already require getting a win every 14 innings which isn't that easy. Getting the fourth point would be much harder considering you need 3 wins just for that extra point.

Hopefully one of the persons you are passing is the second place guy. That would be icing.

If you don't need the saves, I would consider benching the MR and closers to get extra starts in. You have really good SP's and I would hate missing any of their starts.


Thanks for the reply. Actually, the guy leading me by .5 points in this league is #1 in wins. That's a good thing, IMHO, because he can't gain any points in wins. I would bench my relievers but my huge lead in saves has been reduced to 8 or 9 and #2 has 5 closers. :-o
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Postby raiders_umpire » Wed Sep 15, 2004 10:41 am

with 8 starts left between schilling and schmidt i can see u getting 5 wins pretty easy out of them...and if one of your MR or your other starters gets a win for you, i think u will gain 3 points fairly easy......as far as getting 8 more wins though i think that may be a little far fetched but at least your innings situation looks good at gaining you some points in the wins category....
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Postby great gretzky » Wed Sep 15, 2004 11:18 am

what closers middle relievers do you start? It is pretty luck dependant, but maybe you can use one "start" for soemone like linebrink or rincon, romero ro something. It may be worth the gamble to scrifice the innings for ONE starter to get a middle reliever who could -- granted I know it is a crap shoot -- get more than one win for the same allocation of innings? worth thinking about? or depending on your leads in era and whip, amybe making a point of starting closers who are more prone to blow saves but get a win?

that may not be the answer you are looking for, but the reality is one start of six innings might be four to five appearances by a middle reliever ... I wouldn't sacrifice more than one allocation of innings for a starter though.
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Postby Madison » Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:39 pm

I can see you gaining those 3 points and I don't really see much of a problem doing it :-) .

If by some chance it's extremely close at the end, is this a Yahoo league? A "Hail Mary" might be the way to go if that's the case and you only need one more win in the end. What you do is on the day you are going to run out of innings, you spot start as many guys as possible if you can afford a small era/whip hit. In Yahoo, you get credited for every inning pitched on the day you break the inning limit. I had a league last year with a max of 1250, but ended the season with credit for 1275 (rough guess, I don't remember the exact, but it was at least 20 innings over the limit) innings. Didn't work for me, but had I gotten two more k's, I'd have won the league. Just something to keep in the back of your mind if you end up going through innings without getting the wins you need. B-)

Good luck! ;-D
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Postby great gretzky » Wed Sep 15, 2004 1:48 pm

btw madison, do you think the "hail mary" is bad form?

I am toying with doing it on october 2nd. but if no one else in the leagu eknows about the loophole, is it fair? I am in a money league with coworkers. and it could very well help me win. i don't want it tainted.
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Postby Lofunzo » Wed Sep 15, 2004 2:04 pm

great gretzky wrote:btw madison, do you think the "hail mary" is bad form?

I am toying with doing it on october 2nd. but if no one else in the leagu eknows about the loophole, is it fair? I am in a money league with coworkers. and it could very well help me win. i don't want it tainted.


I don't think that it is at all. If people pay attention to their totals, they should notice it. In my league, someone already maxed out with 1259 in a 1250 max league. On another note, 1 guy who is already maxed out picked up a pitcher earlier in the week. :-D

Mad.......I am fully aware of that loophole and intend to use it. I just have to be careful as I have so many closers and they could sneak a few innings in at the end to screw me. :-o It would be nice to have a rainout or 2 so that I could start Schmidt and Schilling on the same day at the end of the season. :-)
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Postby Madison » Wed Sep 15, 2004 3:15 pm

great gretzky wrote:btw madison, do you think the "hail mary" is bad form?

I am toying with doing it on october 2nd. but if no one else in the leagu eknows about the loophole, is it fair? I am in a money league with coworkers. and it could very well help me win. i don't want it tainted.


I don't see it as unethical. Everyone ends up with a few extra innings at the end of the year when they hit the limit and it varies by team. I saw one team break 1030 innings in a league with a 1000 inning cap without using any spot starts. He just had that many guys going on the final day. Also, any owners who are actually paying attention tend to ask what happens if you go over. I always give an honest answer and say that they will get credited with all the innings their team pitches on that day. After that, the ball is in their court.
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Postby great gretzky » Wed Sep 15, 2004 4:17 pm

does it work the same for games played? as long as I am projected to have one game in the outfield, can I start four?
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