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Where does A-Rod get drafted next year?

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Where does A-Rod get drafted next year?

Postby Geek » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:22 pm

He's pretty obviously not going to be the #1 overall pick anymore--3B is a lot more stacked than SS.

But how far will he fall on draft boards? His offensive numbers have been in serious decline for two straight years--this will wind up being his worst year at the plate since 1997. Take away his SB's, and he's barely a top 5 3b.

I say he's about a #6-8 overall pick next year, but even that may be overrating his value.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:24 pm

Top 5 at least. Probably still top 3.
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Postby Geek » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:27 pm

I should qualify/add another question:

Where do people think he will go, and where do people think he should go?

I can easily see him going top five based on his 1998-2002 numbers.
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Postby Strasil42 » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:33 pm

i still think hes top 5

beltran
pujols
vlad
arod
bonds
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:34 pm

Will go? IMO still top 5 easily, if not top 2 or 3.
Should go? Still a first rounder definitely, but maybe mid first round? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt this year with the transition to New York and all. I'll be very interested and reserve judgement until I see what he does in post season and the beginning of next year.
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Postby Tavish » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:35 pm

Geek wrote:I should qualify/add another question:

Where do people think he will go, and where do people think he should go?

I can easily see him going top five based on his 1998-2002 numbers.


He should go top 5 and will go top 5. My top 5 heading into this year was

Soriano
Beltran
Pujols
A-Rod
Vlad

Soriano is about the only one who may have played his way out of the top 5. But really there aren't many players whose performance this year would vault them into the group. Manny will probably become my #5 and move Soriano into the lower top 10.
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Postby pokerplaya » Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:01 pm

I think he will go 2 or 3, no later than 4 in most drafts...I could be wrong but I still think he should be drafted there as I think and hope he has a lot more in the tank. Just because his numbers have gone from out of this world to merely All-Star doesn't mean he's through...

That being said, I drafted him # 1 in a keeper and am somewhat regretting it. Pujols may have been a smarter choice in retrospect. Trade high while his value is still top 5, possibly 2 or 3? That is another important keeper question, IMO.
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Postby Mustangs989 » Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:04 pm

He's top 4 IMO, Beltran, Pujols, Vlad, Arod. After that there are alot of people very similar in value, Manny,Helton,Bonds, Soriano and maybe even a pitcher like Santana.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:22 pm

Tavish wrote:
Geek wrote:I should qualify/add another question:

Where do people think he will go, and where do people think he should go?

I can easily see him going top five based on his 1998-2002 numbers.


He should go top 5 and will go top 5. My top 5 heading into this year was

Soriano
Beltran
Pujols
A-Rod
Vlad

Soriano is about the only one who may have played his way out of the top 5. But really there aren't many players whose performance this year would vault them into the group. Manny will probably become my #5 and move Soriano into the lower top 10.


That's exactly how I think too. I had the same top 5 going into this season. A-Rod, Soriano, Pujols, Beltran, Vlad. Soriano I believe has moved his way out, and as for the new #5 player :-? Abreu, Manny, Santana, who knows. Could be Soriano again just moved from #2 to #5, I havn't thought about it that much yet. Abreu is lookin like the frontrunner. But it's pretty much set in stone that Beltran will be my #1 player. He'd have to sign with KC or Arizona for me to reconsider.

A-Rod is still top 5, and he's probably around #3 or #4 for me. Yeah there are lots of other good 3B's (Rolen, Chavez, Lowell, Huff, Beltre, etc) but none have the SB potential and track record of A-Rod. He deserves to be one of the top picks, and he will be.
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Postby warrick95 » Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:29 pm

My top 5 is Beltran, Pujols, A-Rod, Vlad, and Helton.

I won't explain the first two. A-Rod is still A-Rod. He had a rough year at Yankee Stadium to begin, but I think he's going to settle in some more next season. The Yankee lineup may be better next year if everybody stays healthy (Giambi) and with the likely addition of Carlos Beltran. I think one year there will be cause for improvement.

Soriano plays himself out of the top 5, but not the top 10. Like A-Rod, I think he'll be better next season with some adjustments. In addition, he has a very favorable home park.

My #5 is Helton because of his track record. He's been as effective as ever this season, but his stats aren't that great because of his surrounding cast. If the Rockies add some players, he'll do better.

I would like to put Santana there, but I don't suggest drafting any pitcher that early. Tail end of the 1st is the limit to me and I really don't prefer taking one there, either.

Too much uncertainty around Bonds in terms of protection. In a straight up 5X5, it's really hard to justify him there. If OBP is involved, Bonds is easily top 5...arguably the best player period.

Manny and Helton are close. Both high average hitters. Personally, I just feel safer with Todd Helton. I also dig the higher average.
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