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Where does A-Rod get drafted next year?

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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Tue Sep 28, 2004 11:40 am

Bloody Nipples wrote:Abreu should not be picked in the first round next year. I think he is a solid player, but not an top elite player. This year was a semi-fluke IMO. He should be drafted in the second/third round again this year, but people will take him too early.


That's exactly what I was thinking.
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Postby raiders_umpire » Tue Sep 28, 2004 12:01 pm

Bloody Nipples wrote:Abreu should not be picked in the first round next year. I think he is a solid player, but not an top elite player. This year was a semi-fluke IMO. He should be drafted in the second/third round again this year, but people will take him too early.



i agree with u as well....but with a 30\100\100\40\.300 season this year, u can almost count on him going 1st round in most drafts.....
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Postby pokerplaya » Tue Sep 28, 2004 12:26 pm

So in retrospect was A-Rod a bad first pick this year?
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Sep 28, 2004 12:52 pm

pokerplaya wrote:So in retrospect was A-Rod a bad first pick this year?


no. I have only done one season of FB, but I would guess that most first picks dont actually produce at that level. They do well, of course, but most of the time they probably are not the highest ranked player at the end of the year.

So Arod was a decent first pick. He produced at a first round level, even with that major slump at the beginning of the season. Pujols was probably a better pick, but some would have wanted Arod at SS anyways.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Sep 28, 2004 1:51 pm

This is hardly a fluke by Abreu..... his BA is right in line with his career totals, and yeah his SB's are much higher than last year but the evidence suggests last year was just as much a fluke as this season. He's averaged 27 per season before this year. After the 40 or so he'll get this year, that's about 30 SB's per season he's averaging. So I don't think 30 SB's is too much too expect, especially with 40 this year. His power numbers are also a bit higher than the past couple seasons, but 25-30 HR would be a good estimate. You have to realize that he really didn't have much success at home this year, in one of the best HR hitting parks in the majors. Another 30/30 season, or about that, with a 300 BA wouldn't surprise me at all. And of course his annual 100 RBI and 100 R. Compare that to Ramirez..... you'll get 20 more RBI, 10 points in BA, and 10 HR more than with Abreu. But you also miss out on 30 SB's, which IMO outweigh the extra stats you'd get from Manny. So I can see Abreu not being top tier in some peoples' minds (people who crave the power stats), but first rounder? He definately deserves that.

Now, what about Beltre. He's a tough one to judge for next season. I'm going to avoid him at all costs, because there's so much 3B talent out there, and his career isn't exactly sparkling. His OPS jumped 300 points this season; am I supposed to believe it's going to stay like that? I don't think so. His BA is more than 100 points better than last year. His SLG is over 200 points (!) higher than last year. He has nowhere to go but down, basically. He might stay at the same level as this season but I'll let somebody else take that risk in the first or second round, and I'll sit tight with Aubrey Huff and his 300/30/100/100 season that is almost a given to happen, and he'll come much cheaper than Beltre.
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Postby ocmusicjunkie » Tue Sep 28, 2004 2:36 pm

I'm STRONGLY agreed that Beltre should be avoided next season. If you lived in LA, you'd know he was a total joke before this year. I remember back in spring training, the local radio hosts out here were knocking the Dodgers for not trading him or cutting him loose.

There is still a laundry list of guys who have just as much upside, and are far more consistant throughout their careers.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:01 pm

Abreu should probably be taken in the 2nd round next year. This year was not a "fluke," but I think that that was his career year. I just dont think he will match that next year. I would guess 25 HR, 30 SB, and the same AVG, R, RBI. That puts him around the second round in my book

About Beltre, I would take him if I could in the late 2nd or third round. I am sure all Dodgers fans will remember how big a prospect he was. There was a reason everyone was so dissapointed! There was a reason he was a perenial sleeper (or so I am told) for fantasy. He probably wont match this year's numbers, but I expect a solid 35 HR, 115 RBI, etc for a long while. And remember, this is coming from a Giants fan.
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Postby Registered_Guest » Tue Sep 28, 2004 3:09 pm

ocmusicjunkie wrote:I'm STRONGLY agreed that Beltre should be avoided next season. If you lived in LA, you'd know he was a total joke before this year. I remember back in spring training, the local radio hosts out here were knocking the Dodgers for not trading him or cutting him loose.

There is still a laundry list of guys who have just as much upside, and are far more consistant throughout their careers.


I think Beltre's the only one going to be laughing ...out of LA.

48 HR's in one of (if not THE) best pitcher's park in baseball....at the age of 25. Don't come to me with park factors or stadium stats (look at the home squads playing in them).

His career #'s aren't bad at all given the age he was in the bigs. People expected too much, too fast.

Wouldn't hesitate for a second to give him $10 million/yr over 5 yrs.
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He's 1st in NL HR's.....2nd in RBI (Vinny Castilla)......3rd in BA (Bonds/Helton).
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Sep 28, 2004 4:26 pm

Don't look at park factors? Well, since that is the basis that pitchers/hitters park are formed on, I think we should look at park factors. It has nothing to do with the home team; it's a ratio of how well teams fare in one park versus another. Nothing to do with the calibre of players. You might have missed my post about this, but here's what I said on page 1:

LBJackal wrote:Actually, Dodger Stadium is above the league average for allowing HR's (based on Park Factors), despite it's stigma of being a hitter's nightmare. The Orioles' Camden Yards is seen as a hitter's park but Dodger Stadium is more conducive to HR's.

If you want to know a hitter's nightmare, that would be PETCO Park, Safeco, Tropicana Field, and the supposed hitter's dream Great American Ballpark. Those are probably the 4 worst hitter's parks.


For overall runs scored, yeah it's not a great park - about 22nd overall. There are still 8 parks that are worse though. And it actually inflates HR totals slightly. If a guy hit 40 HR's in an average park, his total would be inflated to 41-42 in Dodger Stadium. Not a huge increase by any means, but an increase nonetheless, and definately not a sign that it's a bad HR hitters park.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Tue Sep 28, 2004 9:53 pm

Here are my top guys, just for fun:

Beltran
Pujols
Vlad
Arod
Manny
Helton
Tejada (yeah, thats right)
Santana (but I wouldnt take him there)
Bonds (would be higher, probably #1, 2 if not for uncertainty/walks)
Beltre
Sheffield
Abreu
Edmonds

comments?
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