Return to Baseball Leftovers

Y'all helped Lofunzo...now my plea for roto advice.

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Y'all helped Lofunzo...now my plea for roto advice.

Postby warrick95 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:03 pm

We have four days left, including today. I am in first place. Here are the overall standings, to what actually pertains to me.

1. Trying to hang on... 95.5
2. ChicksDigTheLong... 94.5
3. The Ideal Nine 88.5

Looks like it's me vs. Chicks. This is a $ league...payouts go $200, $100, $60. Not high stakes like Lo's league, but a considerable difference between first and second. Here is where I stand in terms of all of the categories in terms of points (standard 5X5).

R: 6.5/12
HR: 12/12
RBI: 12/12
SB: 7/12
AVG: 4/12
W: 7/12
SV: 12/12
ERA: 12/12
WHIP: 12/12

Here is where I stand in each category, in terms of what I can gain or lose:

R
912
911
902
902

Realistically, I can only lose 0.5 here...and probably can only gain 0.5, unless my team goes nuts. And that's unlikely, because I was actually above all of those guys in the past, but have slumped recently.

HR
261
258
255
253
253

Barring any crazy comeback, I'm the clear favorite here. Nothing to gain, just fending everybody off.

RBI
985
914
894
891
886

This is over.

SB
115
112
111

I can realistically gain a point here, if I can manage to get an SB. I'm starting Jose Reyes now, so it's possible. The next behind me isn't even close.

AVG
.281
.279
.278
.275
.274

This looks over. .279 was .280 a day or two ago, so I really doubt I have much to gain, unless I get very hot quickly. I'm not counting on gaining anything here. 0.5 points would be much more than I expect.

W
79
75
74 (the team in 2nd place)
74
73

This is definitely the battleground where it gets very tricky. Firstly, I do not know if anybody plans on doing a Hail Mary at this point. The 74 that is not in 2nd place has many IPs left and is spot starting a lot to play spoiler. I fully expect him to pass both me and 2nd place, giving me a minus 0.5 in regard to 2nd place, since he'll lose 0.5 to my 1. Now, I only have 9 IP left. 2nd place has 18 IP left. I'm not sure what to do now. More on this at the bottom.

SV
147
120
103

This is clearly over. I ran away and have consequently dropped all of my closers (yesterday...) to pick up position players for today's roster, since most of my players are off (Astro, Braves, Mets).

K
1160 (done with IP)
1108
1031
1017

I got 16 Ks from Prior today that isn't added on, which gets me thinking. I only have 9 IP left...would a Hail Mary make sense at all? More on this when I explain my ERA and WHIP situations.

ERA
3.39
3.53 (done)
3.61
3.7

Here's my ERA situation. None are really in striking distance. If I start like five SPs, how much do I have to lose if let's say, worst case scenario, they all blow up? Does somebody have experience with how much each start could effect my ERA at this point? Thanks.

WHIP
1.16
1.18 (done)
1.22

Same here. How much could my WHIP be affected by bad starts if I do indeed, go with the Hail Mary?

Okay, so this is what it comes down to. How much should I Hail Mary to get wins, but not kill my ERA and WHIP to lose points there? Basically, how much do I have to lose in ERA and WHIP (the IP limit is 1250, so maybe some of y'all have experience with the effect of bad starts on that many innings). I have 9 IP left, after Prior's start today. I have Beckett (@PHI) tomorrow, Zito (ANA) the next day, and Contreras (@KC) on Sunday. I COULD Hail Mary on any of those days. I COULD start Beckett tomorrow, pray that he doesn't pitch 9 (he usually doesn't) and make an attempt at running the Hail Mary with Zito or Contreras. Saturday is a very weak day for spot starters, but Zito is a better pitcher than Contreras. In addition, I would prefer not to reveal the Hail Mary technique to anybody, as 2nd place may pick up the idea if I do it on Friday for Saturday's lineup. I do not think he is aware of it yet.

I appreciate any help you guys can give me. Once I decide if I should do the Hail Mary or not and what day I would like to do it, I will open a thread (if I do it, that is) in the Trade/Keeper/Waiver Forum. Thank you.
warrick95
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5290
(Past Year: -150)
Joined: 27 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The empty seat next to the Tampa Bay heckler

Postby Arlo » Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:17 pm

1. Exploit Saturday's double-header to improve your odds in the hitting categories.

2. I like the hail on Sunday. Saturday's potential spot starters don't look that bad, but I'd hesitate to give your opponent a target to shoot for on Sunday (plus, if you're adding Sox and O's for Saturday, your roster might get a bit tight if you also add your full allotment of pitchers).

There are lots of folks who'd hail on Saturday instead, however... :-)
Arlo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 7375
(Past Year: -1472)
Joined: 4 Jan 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Cheap Seats

Postby bleach168 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:18 pm

Prepare to Hail Mary. Each extra run you give up will cost you about .007 ERA in a 1250 inning capped league.

Assuming you start 7 on that last day and they each pitch 6 innings that would make 42 innings. To maintain your 3.39 ERA, that would mean you can afford to give up about 16 runs. It would take another 20 runs on top of that to get an ERA of 3.53.

So worse case scenario, your pitchers can give up 35 runs or so in 42 IP and still not lose to second place guy in ERA.

It's harder to predict whip because the standings are not as precise. You could have a 1.155 WHIP or a 1.164 WHIP and they will both read as 1.16.
"And so he spoke, and so he spoke, that lord of Castamere. But now the rains weep o'er his hall, with no one there to hear." - The Rains of Castamere
bleach168
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5033
(Past Year: -11)
Joined: 22 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Apex » Thu Sep 30, 2004 6:43 pm

bleach168 wrote:Prepare to Hail Mary. Each extra run you give up will cost you about .007 ERA in a 1250 inning capped league.

Assuming you start 7 on that last day and they each pitch 6 innings that would make 42 innings. To maintain your 3.39 ERA, that would mean you can afford to give up about 16 runs. It would take another 20 runs on top of that to get an ERA of 3.53.

So worse case scenario, your pitchers can give up 35 runs or so in 42 IP and still not lose to second place guy in ERA.

It's harder to predict whip because the standings are not as precise. You could have a 1.155 WHIP or a 1.164 WHIP and they will both read as 1.16.

Bleach seems to be correct in his math, but I took it one step further. You said you had Prior today with his 1 ER in 9 IP. You also said that you were thinking about starting Zito and hoping he doesn't throw a CG. Using that information I found the following:

A 3.39 ERA at 1232 IP translates to about 464 ERs.

Including Prior's game today, you have 465 ERs in 1241 IP.

Assuming Zito pitches 7 innings & the 7 starters on Sunday throw 6 innings each (as Bleach assumed), you'll end up with 1290 IPs.

To keep your ERA at 3.524 (ahead of second place & not rounded to 3.53), you can only have a total of 505 ERs on the season.

That means that between Zito and your 7 starters on Sunday, you can only allow 40 runs total, or an even 5 ERs per game.

The other thing to consider is that, in the 49 IPs between Zito and the Sunday starters, you'd only need 37 Ks to gain a point there. Even if you drop a point in ERA, the point gain in Ks will offset that and the potential gain in wins will leave you ahead of the game.

I also did a quick analysis of your WHIP situation. Using a worst case scenario of a 1.164 WHIP, you have given up 1434 W+H prior to Prior's game today. That means that to maintain a 1.184 WHIP (tied with the next guy), you'd need to give up 93 or fewer W+H in the final 9 games (Prior, Zito and the 7 Sunday starters). Over 58 innings, that works out to be a 1.60 WHIP.

That loses you a 1/2 point there, but to maintain the lead, you'd need to give up 80 W+H in the last 9 games, or a WHIP of 1.38. (Keep in mind that assumes a worst case scenario with your current numbers.)

Personally, I would do it, but mainly I just wanted to pass on the raw numbers.

Good luck, and congrats on a great season! Aren't the last few days nerve-racking!
Apex
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 332
Joined: 26 Nov 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby warrick95 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:13 pm

Thanks a lot for doing the math, guys. That breaks it down and makes it much clearer for me.

First, Apex, I'm considering Beckett @PHI or Zito vs. ANA, and Hail Mary on Sunday OR Beckett @PHI, Zito vs. ANA, and the Hail Mary on Saturday. I'm taking a look at potential spot starters, and I must say that I don't have much available.

The 2nd place team with 74 wins has Weaver vs. SF tomorrow. I'm not sure he's aware of the loophole in the IP thing, but I'll assume that he will throw Weaver. Then, on Sunday, he has Ol. Perez @CIN, Schmidt @LA, Hudson vs. ANA, and Robertson vs. TB. That may be tough for me to beat out, but we'll see.

Next, I think the Hail Mary is the best way for me to go now. I lost 2nd to 3rd last year, but I think I'm in a fairly decent position this year.

Realistically speaking, 36 Ks in Beckett or Zito PLUS seven Hail Maryers may be tough...as I'd need four Ks per. The problem is, many of the SPs available are horrible. I'm going to go open a post with available spot starters now.

Arlo, thanks for the advice. I already have Miggy, Millar, and Raffy. I picked up Newhan and Cabrera. I'm staying away from Nixon, who's probably the best option, b/c one of the O's projected starters is a lefty.

Thanks for all of the help y'all have given me (Arlo, Bleah, Apex). I really appreciate it.

Apex, I had a sizable lead heading into the week (about five). This isn't helping my blood pressure...
warrick95
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5290
(Past Year: -150)
Joined: 27 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The empty seat next to the Tampa Bay heckler

Postby thehat » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:19 pm

For BA, I'd consider blazing hot Gload instead of Newhan. The guy is on a massive tear, he can play 1B, CI or OF and he's facing KC. Another possible is Seattle's Reed, who gets Drese tomorrow and Park Sunday. Doubt he's useful vs. Rogers Sat. Reed is rolling and he might be stealing.
thehat
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 3707
(Past Year: -14)
Joined: 1 Jun 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Fabulous Las Vegas

Postby warrick95 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:28 pm

Newhan is for the doubleheader...I have more than enough players in terms of filling spots. I just want to attack in Rs and HRs a little. Thanks for the help, though.
warrick95
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5290
(Past Year: -150)
Joined: 27 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The empty seat next to the Tampa Bay heckler

Postby warrick95 » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:28 pm

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... hp?t=87021

Help me choose pitchers, guys. Thank you!
warrick95
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5290
(Past Year: -150)
Joined: 27 May 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The empty seat next to the Tampa Bay heckler


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 0 guests

cron