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Victor Martinez - past peak value or just wore down?

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Victor Martinez - past peak value or just wore down?

Postby Sticky Spice » Fri Oct 08, 2004 6:55 am

Unfortunately my team in my keeper league sucked this year and I was forced to rebuild. I acquired Victor Martinez in one of my trades and after a rip-roaring couple of weeks, he never matched his early season streaks in the 2nd half.

I actually wasn't high on Victor, I went on a tip that the owner of Johan Santana liked him so I went for it. Johan didn't pan out (damn it).

It may just be me justifying myself, but I think Victor just plain wore down. First of all, he had a hamstring strain around the 4th of August. It took him a few days to get back to playing full time and that possibly set him back a bit.

More importantly, he caught just 342 major league innings in 2003. This year he caught 1,108 innings. I've heard that with some catchers, like with some pitchers, it takes some experience to get used to the length of the major league grind.

Now if you actually see the pre-All-Star/post-All-star split, it doesn't look that bad until you see how it breaks down.

July-Aug-Sept

HR 6-4-2
RBI 22-19-10
R 15-11-7
OBP 366-347-320
and to be scientifically fair
AB+BB 112-93-98

Hey, at the very least I'm thinking I have an above-average offensive catcher at $7 who will be fresh at the start of the season. Consider trading him next July? Maybe, but you'd hate to find out after trading him that he built up his endurance this year. Remember he's just 25 ;-)

89 SB's allowed?! I don't know what you're talking about O:-)
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Postby Erboes » Fri Oct 08, 2004 7:38 am

You got a good one in Martinez. Not only did he wear down, but he was a victim of the team's overall collapse offensively, which sucked the entire team down in the process. He will become a consistent .300 hitter, but I don't think he will ever hit much more than 25 HR's. I just wish he stole a few bases like I-Rod too. He could also one day vie for a batting title. With the getting up in age in the top tier of catchers (Piazza and I-Rod), Martinez should be the best in baseball within no more than three seasons, but it may happen next year. As always, that is just my opinion.
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Postby j_d_mcnugent » Fri Oct 08, 2004 9:22 am

i think fatigue is definitely a big part of the equation. its not unusual for catchers to slow down offensively as the season progresses. martinez is a solid keeper.
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Postby Pablo975 » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:09 am

Yeah, catching will wear you out. Happens to lots of catchers. IT also happens to lots of guys in thier first year or two in the majors.

I managed to snag VMart off the WW about 3 weeks in. He's one of my four keepers. Although I don't think he'll develop much more than 30 HR power, he did win a AAA Triple Crown a year or two ago didn't he?
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Postby raiders_umpire » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:15 am

vmart is definitely a keeper in most leagues....as i would say 25-30 hr power for him for the next several years along with a 320 BA is what he will max out with i imagine.......with catcher being a wear down position maybe the indians can get him a solid backup and then play him a 15 games a year or so at DH.....
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Postby Erboes » Fri Oct 08, 2004 10:16 am

At least one batting title. The kid can hit, no doubt about it.
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Postby SaintsOfTheDiamond » Fri Oct 08, 2004 1:16 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:vmart is definitely a keeper in most leagues....as i would say 25-30 hr power for him for the next several years along with a 320 BA is what he will max out with i imagine.......with catcher being a wear down position maybe the indians can get him a solid backup and then play him a 15 games a year or so at DH.....


That would definitely help. One of the few benefits to AL ball I guess. :-D
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Postby rotodog » Fri Oct 08, 2004 5:43 pm

DUDE, If you own Vic for 7 bucks , youve scored big!! For that much you cant get a catcher with half the counting stats,without dragging your avgs down.....If you have to rebuild, having a quality catcher real cheap isnt a bad place to start!!!!!!consider yourself lucky........ROTODOG
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Sat Oct 09, 2004 1:46 am

yeah. vmart is a keeper. the question may be how long will the indians play him as their C? 2 more years? 3? anyhow, u gotta keep him this year. he'll will put up big numbers for you in years to come. it's kind of interesting cuz i remember two years ago when he debuted in the majors people were so high on him, but then he went on to have a bad year and this year not many people ended up drafting him, so he was available in a lot of leagues in the beginning of the season. will olivo be next year's vmart?
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Postby Sticky Spice » Sat Oct 09, 2004 7:09 am

well since everyone is backing victor, let me play devil's advocate.

who was expecting him to be this good in his first full year? not me. some guy above said he got him off the waiver wire, and i have a feeling that was likely true of many shallow leagues.

we've seen plenty of examples in the past where a player comes on the scene with a fast start, then a sophomore slump, and then you see them grow over the next few years eventually matching their first season and even surpassing it. a great example would be carlos beltran.

the indians as a whole were just plain hotter in the first half. i think the real indians were more like the ones we saw in the 2nd half - a less explosive offense. it was just chance that lawton and ronnie belliard of all people were red hot at the same time at the beginning of the season like that. they will be depending on young guys like hafner, broussard, peralta, crisp, sizemore, blake, brandon phillips, and injury question marks like aaron boone, lawton, and gerut. what i'm getting at is less rbi opportunities and less good pitches.

I'm not saying he'll be bad, but I'm saying the possibility is there that he could really disappoint if you are depending on certain stats outta him. There are just so many question marks with their offense right now.
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