Return to Baseball Leftovers

Dunn & Upton 2005 thoughts

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Dunn & Upton 2005 thoughts

Postby San D » Sat Oct 09, 2004 8:14 pm

I'm having trouble figuring the upside of these young players. With Adam Dunn, will he cut down on his strikeouts in 2005 while maintaining his power and his OBP? With Upton, I know he's a great keeper SS, but what kind of stats will he put up next year?
San D
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1495
(Past Year: -4)
Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby bleach168 » Sat Oct 09, 2004 8:29 pm

Dunn is pretty close to his peak right now. He made a big jump last year and I don't think he will get much better right away. He will probably maintain those type of stats.

Upton is an interesting player. Pinella should let him steal more often next year, but there is no telling when he will realize his potential. The kid has just turned 20, there is going to be some growning pains.
"And so he spoke, and so he spoke, that lord of Castamere. But now the rains weep o'er his hall, with no one there to hear." - The Rains of Castamere
bleach168
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 5033
(Past Year: -11)
Joined: 22 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby wkelly91 » Sat Oct 09, 2004 11:57 pm

Dunn intriges me. He has had two half seasons, and now two full seasons. I think there is a chance as he matures he will cut down on his strikeouts due to his "eye" for walks.

.275-.280-110-45-100

Upton

.260-10 to 15
wkelly91
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 2783
(Past Year: -13)
Joined: 10 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Looking over your shoulder as you type.

Postby hooligan1 » Sun Oct 10, 2004 9:22 am

I like Dunn to cut down his K's next year, but pushing 200 for '04, how could he not? I would guess he'll still approach 150, but those kind of strikeout numbers have never stopped anyone from drafting Glaus, Burnitz, Preston Wilson, etc......I would guess .280 avg/110 runs/45 hr/115 rbi/10 sb/145 k and 120 walks/.400 obp......

Upton is a much tougher call, as we don't have much of a sample size, but I don't think .275/85 runs/12 hr/70 rbi/20 sb is too much to ask...... It will of course depend largely on how much he plays and where they decide to bat him in the order.
Hooligan1
hooligan1
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 886
(Past Year: -2)
Joined: 13 Jun 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Uumm, micro-managing my fantasy baseball teams. Where else?

Postby Tavish » Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:55 pm

I agree with Hooligan about Dunn. His K rate will still be high, its just the type of player that he is. But it would be pretty hard to imagine him to K quite that much next year, it was after all a record setting season. I really don't see him batting .280 next season, probably in the low .270s with 35 HR and 100+ RBI. If your league counts K's his value certainly falls somewhat, but in a standard 5X5 he should be a 3rd-4th round pick.
Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 10554
(Past Year: -510)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Dunn & Upton 2005 thoughts

Postby Onyx » Sun Oct 10, 2004 9:01 pm

San D wrote:With Upton, I know he's a great keeper SS, but what kind of stats will he put up next year?

For what its worth, Pinella has said he may play Upton at 3rd next season. He likes Lugo at SS. I know its Lou and he changes his mind every 5 minutes but it might have an effect on things. :-?

Rotoworld
Latest News Oct. 2, 2004 - 10:06 am et


The Devil Rays' current plan is to go into 2005 with Julio Lugo at shortstop and B.J. Upton at third base.
"I think Lugo is basically our heart and soul," manager Lou Piniella said. "He brings energy to the ballpark every night. He likes to play. He plays hard. I see him at shortstop next year." Look for Jorge Cantu at second base, Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, and possibly Joey Gathright in the outfield, Toby Hall behind the plate, and Aubrey Huff at first base or DH. Whichever position Huff doesn't fill could be taken by a free agent with some pop.
Source: St. Petersburg Times



Onyx
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 141
Joined: 6 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Re: Dunn & Upton 2005 thoughts

Postby Bloody Nipples » Sun Oct 10, 2004 9:12 pm

Onyx wrote:
San D wrote:With Upton, I know he's a great keeper SS, but what kind of stats will he put up next year?

For what its worth, Pinella has said he may play Upton at 3rd next season. He likes Lugo at SS. I know its Lou and he changes his mind every 5 minutes but it might have an effect on things. :-?

Rotoworld
Latest News Oct. 2, 2004 - 10:06 am et


The Devil Rays' current plan is to go into 2005 with Julio Lugo at shortstop and B.J. Upton at third base.
"I think Lugo is basically our heart and soul," manager Lou Piniella said. "He brings energy to the ballpark every night. He likes to play. He plays hard. I see him at shortstop next year." Look for Jorge Cantu at second base, Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, and possibly Joey Gathright in the outfield, Toby Hall behind the plate, and Aubrey Huff at first base or DH. Whichever position Huff doesn't fill could be taken by a free agent with some pop.
Source: St. Petersburg Times


That would greatly reduce Upton's value. 3b is so deep that he would not even be a 4th tier guy. At SS he has great value, but not at 3rd.
aka enderwiggin
Bloody Nipples
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 3741
(Past Year: -4)
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: doing my laundry...

Postby hybrid » Sun Oct 10, 2004 9:37 pm

It won't hurt his value next year, just means he can play SS & 3B. He already qualifies at SS going into 2005.

But yeah obviously he will be more valuable at SS compared to 3B next year, though his SB's will come in handy if Lou lets him run.
hybrid
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 6079
(Past Year: -28)
Joined: 26 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: miles away from the unordinary

Postby Bloody Nipples » Sun Oct 10, 2004 10:17 pm

hybrid wrote:It won't hurt his value next year, just means he can play SS & 3B. He already qualifies at SS going into 2005.

But yeah obviously he will be more valuable at SS compared to 3B next year, though his SB's will come in handy if Lou lets him run.


I guess I was looking more at his long-term keeper value than his value next year alone. If he becomes a 3B, he will be a solid option throughout his career, but he would be much more valuable as a SS.
aka enderwiggin
Bloody Nipples
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 3741
(Past Year: -4)
Joined: 28 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: doing my laundry...

Postby hybrid » Sun Oct 10, 2004 11:08 pm

I wouldn't worry about it to much. He could still get in my mind still play 15 games at SS a year even if Lugo is completely healthy. Lugo will get his days off and games where he DH's so someone else will have to play SS.

Lugo didn't started in 8 games and DH'd in 5. That comes to 13 games and Lou felt he should of gave him more rest during the season as he seemed to wear down at the end. So I still think Upton will be able to qualify at SS.
hybrid
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 6079
(Past Year: -28)
Joined: 26 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: miles away from the unordinary

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests