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Postby wrveres » Tue Jan 04, 2005 6:38 pm

Scott Boras Client wrote:It's a funny column, and if I had no idea what DePodesta stood for i'd still suspect he stood for something sensible from the level of invective used.

And what's DePo's greatest sin? "Google Boy's computer makes no allowances for intangibles." Well, I should hope not. The signing of "nicest athlete in town" Green proved so unwise that even in a rebounding market the Dodgers have to eat some of his salary to send him on his way.

I'm not fond of the Beltre for J.D. Drew swap, nor am I privy to the Dodgers' budget limits. But would anyone want to bet that the Dodgers will have a better record than the intangibles-loving Mariners in 2005?


I can't wait to go to the 1st annual Jeff Kent/Milton Bradley Picnic .. I bet thats a blast ;-D

Jim Tracy one of the nicest guys in the world, has his hands FULL!
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 6:39 pm

Last year, right around this time, a certain baseball executive was getting ripped left and right for alienating a beloved hometown player in order to make a trade to improve the team. In the end the deal proposed never went through, but the beloved player was dealt in July.

I wonder how many people who ripped Theo Epstein last January were calling him a genius in October?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/gammons/story?id=1683034

"A bad dream..." Maybe not, Peter.

For those of you who put ANY stock in what the typical baseball writer for the typical newspaper writes, I'd encourage you to wait and judge the results. Mainly this article represents the pathetic whining of a hack who has lost some guys who he thinks gave him good quotes so that he could fill up his required column inches and collect his pay. Somebody drop me a note when this guy actually does an analysis of whether or not the moves DePodesta makes actually improve the team. Funny how he doesn't even give him credit for getting Finley or getting the Dodgers into the playoffs!

Save that column, T.J. If past history is a good guide, you'll be eating them words within a year or two.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:02 pm

For a cogent analysis of why this deal makes both baseball and economic sense for the Dodgers in a lot fewer words than it took TJ to blather his nonsense, look here (posts 14 and 15 by mgl):

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... 5364/P100/
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:16 pm

This guy just seems like one of those insiders who rips the characters of Moneyball for the sake of ripping them. And Simers isn't even an insider. I guess he's just influence dby them.

"Green's the nicest guy, he offered to switch positions, he's so good with the fans." How about: he's getting paid $16M to put up an 800 OPS.

Seeing as though DePodesta was the one actually doing the scouting work in Oakland, and Beane just gave him free reign to do it and opened the door to this scouting style, I'd say he can spot talent by looking at the numbers fairly well. Giving him a stupid pet name isn't going to change much.
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Postby stumpak » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:25 pm

As a daily reader of the LA Times until 1999 and a more than occaisonal reader since, the first thing you have to know is that TJ Simers is a complete hack. He is one of those guys who will say anything controversial just to fill space and is almost always dead wrong. His columns can be counted on to reflect zero real analysis but give a full serving of the wrong-headed conventional wisdom of the day, the sort of sentiments that you find the most dunderheaded sports talk show caller espousing. He really is that bad. This is the guy who said in 1999 that the Lakers would never win a title with Shaq and in 2001 said that USC hiring Pete Carroll was the stupidest move in the history of college football. If he says DePodesta is an idiot then DePodesta is probably really a genius.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Jan 04, 2005 7:49 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:For a cogent analysis of why this deal makes both baseball and economic sense for the Dodgers in a lot fewer words than it took TJ to blather his nonsense, look here (posts 14 and 15 by mgl):

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... 5364/P100/


While thats an interesting arguement, MGL fails to mention that that Vaz is surely going to get spun off also. If not now then surely by spring. My guess is the latter cus pitching should only increase his value.
So, Arizona basically wasted 4 million dollars on a 32 year old OF with a career .500 SLG. when Arizonas only other real option was Burnitz. The most important thing that Arizona got in these two deals was "Cash" The need cash, and they need cash now. The team is strapped.

Oh and where was the sabermetric calculator for Repodesta when Kent and Drew were putting their ink to paper.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:21 pm

wrveres wrote:While thats an interesting arguement, MGL fails to mention that that Vaz is surely going to get spun off also. If not now then surely by spring. My guess is the latter cus pitching should only increase his value.
So, Arizona basically wasted 4 million dollars on a 32 year old OF with a career .500 SLG. when Arizonas only other real option was Burnitz. The most important thing that Arizona got in these two deals was "Cash" The need cash, and they need cash now. The team is strapped.

Oh and where was the sabermetric calculator for Repodesta when Kent and Drew were putting their ink to paper.


You can't analyze what hasn't happened.

He may have a career .500 slugging percentage, but the last two years that slugging percentage is .460, not .500. Any reasonable projection makes Green out to be about a 450-475 slugger over th enext few years. He's a 32 year OF who has declined dramatically fromhis peak, has a chronic shoulder injury, and isn't a good fielder in the OF or at 1B, where his declining hitting is already below average for that position and will only get worse. And, the D'backs plan is to sign him to a wasteful contract extension!

Furthermore, the D'backs have NO hope of contending in the next few years AND Green blocks the necessary promotion of some of the better prospects. AZ doesn't need cash. They are the scarecrow of MLB.

Here's a good analysis of the Kent signing (post 24)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... ion/24892/

And mgl weighs in on Drew in post 49 here...
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... ion/25166/
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Postby Scott Boras Client » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:28 pm

Actually that calculator was probably quite handy. Looking at how much these guys will be paid next year for 2004 production, and going by the nearest available runs created formula,

Kent $7 million/95 runs = $74K/run, rounded
Drew $11 million/127 runs = $87K/run
Beltre $13 million/130 runs = $100K/run

But I still think he should have resigned Beltre.
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Postby wrveres » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:55 pm

you saberheads can discount team chemistry all you want ..

Signing Drew, Kent, Valentin to bat around Milton Bradley, and pissing off the fans in the process, is not an improvement over Green and Beltre and Cora. These guys are actually going to have to take the field together for 162 games. Chipper Jones, another one of the nice guys in baseball, actually ripped into Drew for not trying. Whats going to happen on May 3rd when Milton Bradley tells a reporter that JD Drew is faking an injury. IMHO, putting Kent, JD and Milton .. 3,4,5 in any batting order is a huge mistake. Thats assuming anyone of them can even stay healthy.


Who cares if you pissed off the fans ..
Who cares if Green would have taken a cut to stay ..
Who cares if Depodesta never even offered Beltre anything meaningful ..
Who cares that La duca was the fan favorite ..
All that matters is that you saved 3.2 million dollars, and netted 1.36789642648 more Runs created per 29 devided by 162 ... times 4 plus 3 ...

Like I said before.
I'll see you at the 1st annual Kent/Bradley/Drew picnic ... its going to be a blast. My guess is Drew will have a blister, and won't be able to go, Bradley's parole officer will recommend he not be around too many fans, anger ya know ... and that Kent won't show up ..
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 04, 2005 8:57 pm

And Shawn Green, $16 million/94 or $170,000 per run created.
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