Return to Baseball Leftovers

Pedro's Numbers in Shea

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Pedro's Numbers in Shea

Postby joshheines » Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:03 am

Let's start this discussion with one premise. Pedro of 2004 is the Pedro of the future. Further, for the sake of argument let's try to figure out if Pedro pitched in Shea Stadium in the National League all year, how would his 2004 have turned out? Finally, I don't think Pedro will get much worse and there is a chance he could have a remarkably dramatic improvement. With those things out of the way, onto the numbers.

Primary #s: 33 GS, 217 IP, 193 hits, 61 BB, 227 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.

Secondary #s: K/9 9.42, K:BB 3.72, AVG against .238.

Now, we all know Pedro moved from the AL to the NL, that means no more DH. I'd say, conservatively, you can discount his ratio's by 3% just for the lack of a DH. Yes, it's a rough cut.

But further he moved from the AL East to NL East. So he goes from a tough hitting division to a weak division. Cut another 2.5 % of his ratios. I'll now substantiate those rough cuts by stating that the AL East (not counting the Sawx) scored 3172 runs, the NL East not incluing the Mets, scored 2996. That is a difference of about 5.5%

Now let's go to park factors.

Shea
Runs: .974 HR .80 (lowest in baseball) Hits: 1.03

Fenway
Runs: 1.12 HR: .974 Hits: 1.10

Before continuing, I must metioned that Pedro allowed 26 HR last year which is far higher than his career norm. In Shea, according to park factors, he will allow 20% less HR, which is 5 less HR. Even shaving 5 solo HR off of last season would give Pedro an ERA of 3.69.

OK, look, it's late I'm tired, at a certain point I got lost, and one huge flaw in my logic of park factor is that they only play 81 games at Shea. But I think my bottom line is that if Pedro pitched EXACTLY the same season this year as he did this year, except in the NL and Shea. I would conservatively put his numbers at 3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 240 K (throw him an extra 13 K because of pitchers), and because he's on the Mets, we'll give him 14-15 wins. Even if he improves slightly on last season, Pedro could be dominating in Shea.

Then again, his arm could fall off, and his owners, fantasy and real, would be screwed.

Thoughts?
It's easy, fun, and 100% safe!
joshheines
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 532
(Past Year: -3)
Joined: 29 Sep 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby LBJackal » Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:14 am

I havn't thought about it as much as you have, or at least not as empirically, but all else being equal, being in Shea will definately help all of his numbers except W's.
Image

"Jack, will you call me, if you're able?"

"I've got your phone number written, in the back of my Bible."
LBJackal
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 9018
(Past Year: -178)
Joined: 1 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Hotel Yorba

Postby BKeller » Thu Jan 06, 2005 6:33 am

Good analysis! I'm even rosier on Pedro. Some thoughts, which cut in both directions:

His K9 ratio has been in steady decline, so I think you have to assume that the net Ks drop a little, even with the move to the National League. The GM (Minaya) is spending cash, so Pedro's wins will go up (compared to your projections) if Delgado or Beltran sign with the Mets.

The biggest factors you're forgetting, I think, are defense and holds. Pedro will have Mike Cameron patrolling center, which is great, but with Hidalgo moving to Texas and Cliff Floyd on the trading block and some young kids in the infield (Reyes, Wright) it's tough to predict how Pedro's supporting case will perform. Sort of a digression, but who are the corner outfielders going to be, anyway?

Pedro's ERA and WHIP rose after the All Star break, which is when the Sox improved their defense, but his K9 ratio improved. Tough to figure out what trends, if any, are contained in those splits. As for holds, Pedro was, I think, the beneficiary of a pretty solid set of middle relievers. In Shea, I worry that the runners he bequeaths to relievers will be rounding the bases. Is there a stat that shows how many of the runners who were on base when he left the game scored? I expect 16-20 wins from him, depending on who the Mets sign for their bullpen. He'll lose some wins because of blown saves and blown holds.

He'll also be new to many of the hitters he faces, which (in theory) helps him. Having the Yankees in the league definitely hurt him, and it's pretty well recorded that (during his career) he's fared worse against the Yankees than any other team. I took the liberty of calculating Pedro's 2004 stats if you remove his 2004 Yankees starts (against whom he was 1-2 in 4 GS) and his stats against NL teams:

TOTAL:
Ws: 16, IP: 217.0, Ks: 227, ERA: 3.90, WHIP: 1.17

WITHOUT YANKEES:
Ws: 15, IP: 191, Ks: 203, ERA: 3.68, WHIP: 1.15

Not hugely different, but the 3.68 says to me that Pedro isn't a 3.90 ERA pitcher out of the AL East. He's better.

But here's what's really interesting. Small sample size, but in his four regular season starts against NL teams, he went 2-1 with 21 Ks in 28 IP, an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 0.86. Sexy.

So to put my rep on the line and taking an average of trends, past performance, and gut feeling: I project him at 18 wins, 215 Ks, 2.55 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP, if he stays healthy. I give him a grade of 'C' for injury risk. And I predict zero saves. :-D Needless to say, if he's there in the second round, he'll be on my fantasy team.
BKeller
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 75
(Past Year: -2)
Joined: 4 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby trevisc » Thu Jan 06, 2005 10:18 am

don't forget that Pedro tied his career high in HRs given up (26) and also almost tied the most runs he's ever given up (99). Those are bound to go down because of the park he'll be pitching in and also he'll be facing pitchers now instead of DH.

I expect a decent rebound from pedro that includes a sub 3 era and a below 1 whip not to mention 220+ ks
trevisc
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 11013
(Past Year: -258)
Joined: 6 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2004,2005 Keeper League Champion

Postby redsox588 » Thu Jan 06, 2005 12:53 pm

if i were you..i'd check out pedro's numbers minus the orioles...they were his "daddy" more then the yanks were thats for sure
RED SOX '04 CHAMPS
redsox588
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 293
Joined: 16 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: New York

Postby The Thrill » Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:55 pm

Statistically, just looking at some pitchers that went from the AL to NL, you have to almost feel assured that he'll post better numbers. Seems like many posted either career-like numbers or at least better than avg (for their career) numbers.

Randy Johnson at age 35 was a phenom when traded to Houston.
Clemens at age 42 in Houston,
Al Leiter at age 31,
Mark Redman at age 29,
even Jose Lima at age 25 & then again at age 32.
They all did quite well transitioning.

Colon did mediocre and Milton didn't do so hot.

I would think Pedro should have a very good year. Especially next year, his first year back in the NL.
The Thrill
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Pick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1282
(Past Year: -17)
Joined: 19 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: Batting Leadoff

Postby Scott Boras Client » Thu Jan 06, 2005 2:03 pm

He'll have what, 6-7 starts against the Marlins and Nationals? That's good for 5 w's. The best offense in the division, Philly, might only rank 4th in the AL East. So that will sure help.
Scott Boras Client
College Coach
College Coach

User avatar

Posts: 190
Joined: 4 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Jan 06, 2005 3:07 pm

Sorry, but all the empirical calculations in the world can't shake my skepticism that the dramatic drop-off in his performance in 2004 was a sign of further decline to come. That, together with his age and all the medical reports about his bad shoulder, gives me pause on the guy. I think he'll do fine on the Mets, but I think his dominant days are over.
I am the Master. Don't question the Master. Just do what he says and be proud.
Secret Avatar
General Manager
General Manager

Cafeholic
Posts: 3233
(Past Year: -2)
Joined: 15 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby DK » Thu Jan 06, 2005 3:17 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:Sorry, but all the empirical calculations in the world can't shake my skepticism that the dramatic drop-off in his performance in 2004 was a sign of further decline to come. That, together with his age and all the medical reports about his bad shoulder, gives me pause on the guy. I think he'll do fine on the Mets, but I think his dominant days are over.


I've given up arguing this. Go to the "Pedro is a Met" thread. That's all I can say without passing out from statistical exhaustion.
DK
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 9077
(Past Year: -456)
Joined: 22 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: on deck

Postby yanksareback2 » Thu Jan 06, 2005 3:22 pm

I think Pedro can post at least a 3.20 era without a problem.
Everyone has to remember he is only 33 and Shea will help out a lot. He had one off year. Wins is another story because no one knows what offensive player the mets are gonna get. It could be beltran Delgado, or others but right now there offense is awful. The two main power threats in the lineup haven't been healthy in years and Reyes hasn't shown that he can stay healthy either even though he is only 21.
K's will probably go up because it is the national league and they haven't seen him in a while. Last year he pitched against 5 NL teams and went 4-0. He was dominant in all of these starts except against San Fran.

Pedro will bounce back in a big way if the mets can score some runs.
yanksareback2
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor

User avatar

Posts: 66
Joined: 14 Dec 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 10 guests

cron