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Pedro's Numbers in Shea

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Postby Viper8437 » Thu Jan 06, 2005 5:54 pm

VOTE FOR PEDRO
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Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Jan 06, 2005 6:57 pm

Sorry guys, but I don't count 2004 as a "off year." First off, it was more than just a blip in the radar. His ERA exploded from five straight years of low-2 or under to almost 4. That's scary. (On the positive side, his Ks did not drop at all.) But what scares me most were all the medical reports about his blown shoulder. Hey, I'm no fool -- I never saw the reports myself so they could be bull. But where there's smoke there's usually fire.

I'm not saying don't draft the guy. He's likely to have a good season. But I have to roll my eyes when I see projections for him for next year that pretend 2004 never happened.
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Postby rotodog » Thu Jan 06, 2005 8:13 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:Sorry guys, but I don't count 2004 as a "off year." First off, it was more than just a blip in the radar. His ERA exploded from five straight years of low-2 or under to almost 4. That's scary. (On the positive side, his Ks did not drop at all.) But what scares me most were all the medical reports about his blown shoulder. Hey, I'm no fool -- I never saw the reports myself so they could be bull. But where there's smoke there's usually fire.

I'm not saying don't draft the guy. He's likely to have a good season. But I have to roll my eyes when I see projections for him for next year that pretend 2004 never happened.

The thing about his shoulder doesnt worry me too much at all. Here is why..........Ifthe Sox were so confident his shoulder was really that bad, would they have offered him 3 years and Multi millions if they had some secret reports about his shoulder? I doubt it. Theo & Co arent that stupid and next to Billy beane, the most likely not to overpay a player to avoid bad press when he leaves town...Hell, they traded a Boston Icon Mid year and took 2 weeks of constant flack..Theo is a rock!!!!!!!!!!! B-) ROTO DOG
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Postby blankman » Thu Jan 06, 2005 8:18 pm

I think he'll post better numbers due to the move (stadium, opposing hitters etc), but I also think he will perform at the same level as 2004 and that he will not "get better."
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Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Jan 06, 2005 8:19 pm

"The thing about his shoulder doesnt worry me too much at all. Here is why..........Ifthe Sox were so confident his shoulder was really that bad, would they have offered him 3 years and Multi millions if they had some secret reports about his shoulder?"

That's a fair point. The Sox did refuse to go more than 3 years, though, which does give me some pause. Plus, the supposedly bad medical reports came at the end of a season that saw a huge decline in his ERA from previous seasons. Sometimes things are really that simple to put 2 and 2 together.

Watch the dude in spring training and pre-season. If he misses starts or there's something otherwise suspicious, run for the hills. ;-)
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Postby BKeller » Thu Jan 06, 2005 9:01 pm

All those who doubt Pedro, please humor me and look at Greg Maddux's 1999 season, when he was 33 (i.e., about the same as Pedro). his ERA spiked, his WHIP flared up, his Ks plummeted, and people said he was done. And then his numbers returned in 2000 most of the way to what he'd previously done. And that was without leaving the AL. If you don't want to take Pedro because he's an injury risk, I respect that. But if it's because you think he's done, you're a sucker over-reacting to this year without looking at his historical numbers and the strong evidence (from his K9 ratio) that he's still a superior pitcher who will benefit from a move to the NL. Just look at Pedro's numbers from 1997 to 2004. Given that his ERA was above 2.40 only ONCE in the seven years before 2004, is it really that crazy of me to predict 2.55 when he moves to the NL? If I had to bet and 2.55 was the over-under line, I'd bet my money on 'under'.
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Postby BKeller » Thu Jan 06, 2005 9:06 pm

P.S. Pedro's WHIP was above 1.02 only TWICE in the past 7 years before 2004 . . . (1.04 in 2003 and 1.09 in 1998). As such, my prediction of 1.02 isn't exactly a reach. If you want to believe that the trend from 2002 to 2004 will continue (0.92 to 1.04 to 1.17), that's fine, but I'm not troubled by that given the move to the NL and his solid K9 rate.
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Jan 06, 2005 9:44 pm

Pedro is a power pitcher, Maddux is a finesse pitcher. Reports say that Pedro's arm is falling off, Maddux was fine and doesn't rely on a high 90's fastball, and never has. They are completely different pitchers. If you feel safe with Pedro then draft him like he'll be back to his normal self. If he makes it through the season, which I highly doubt, he'll still be at a significantly lower level than his pre-2004 stats. Adjusting for ballpark, of course.
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Postby Amazinz » Thu Jan 06, 2005 9:52 pm

None of the reports about Pedro's arm have been based in fact. I wouldn't put too much stock in them. Just look at the way he pitched last year. Look at the stats. Is he the same pitcher he was during his prime? Definitely not. But he still posted damn good numbers in the AL (ungodly numbers if you believe the stories that his arm is hanging by a thread ;-7 ) and now he's coming to the NL and Shea Stadium. The Mets won't generate the offensive production the Sox do, but then again they don't need to. ;-)
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