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Pedro's Numbers in Shea

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:03 am
by joshheines
Let's start this discussion with one premise. Pedro of 2004 is the Pedro of the future. Further, for the sake of argument let's try to figure out if Pedro pitched in Shea Stadium in the National League all year, how would his 2004 have turned out? Finally, I don't think Pedro will get much worse and there is a chance he could have a remarkably dramatic improvement. With those things out of the way, onto the numbers.

Primary #s: 33 GS, 217 IP, 193 hits, 61 BB, 227 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.

Secondary #s: K/9 9.42, K:BB 3.72, AVG against .238.

Now, we all know Pedro moved from the AL to the NL, that means no more DH. I'd say, conservatively, you can discount his ratio's by 3% just for the lack of a DH. Yes, it's a rough cut.

But further he moved from the AL East to NL East. So he goes from a tough hitting division to a weak division. Cut another 2.5 % of his ratios. I'll now substantiate those rough cuts by stating that the AL East (not counting the Sawx) scored 3172 runs, the NL East not incluing the Mets, scored 2996. That is a difference of about 5.5%

Now let's go to park factors.

Shea
Runs: .974 HR .80 (lowest in baseball) Hits: 1.03

Fenway
Runs: 1.12 HR: .974 Hits: 1.10

Before continuing, I must metioned that Pedro allowed 26 HR last year which is far higher than his career norm. In Shea, according to park factors, he will allow 20% less HR, which is 5 less HR. Even shaving 5 solo HR off of last season would give Pedro an ERA of 3.69.

OK, look, it's late I'm tired, at a certain point I got lost, and one huge flaw in my logic of park factor is that they only play 81 games at Shea. But I think my bottom line is that if Pedro pitched EXACTLY the same season this year as he did this year, except in the NL and Shea. I would conservatively put his numbers at 3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 240 K (throw him an extra 13 K because of pitchers), and because he's on the Mets, we'll give him 14-15 wins. Even if he improves slightly on last season, Pedro could be dominating in Shea.

Then again, his arm could fall off, and his owners, fantasy and real, would be screwed.

Thoughts?

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:14 am
by LBJackal
I havn't thought about it as much as you have, or at least not as empirically, but all else being equal, being in Shea will definately help all of his numbers except W's.

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 6:33 am
by BKeller
Good analysis! I'm even rosier on Pedro. Some thoughts, which cut in both directions:

His K9 ratio has been in steady decline, so I think you have to assume that the net Ks drop a little, even with the move to the National League. The GM (Minaya) is spending cash, so Pedro's wins will go up (compared to your projections) if Delgado or Beltran sign with the Mets.

The biggest factors you're forgetting, I think, are defense and holds. Pedro will have Mike Cameron patrolling center, which is great, but with Hidalgo moving to Texas and Cliff Floyd on the trading block and some young kids in the infield (Reyes, Wright) it's tough to predict how Pedro's supporting case will perform. Sort of a digression, but who are the corner outfielders going to be, anyway?

Pedro's ERA and WHIP rose after the All Star break, which is when the Sox improved their defense, but his K9 ratio improved. Tough to figure out what trends, if any, are contained in those splits. As for holds, Pedro was, I think, the beneficiary of a pretty solid set of middle relievers. In Shea, I worry that the runners he bequeaths to relievers will be rounding the bases. Is there a stat that shows how many of the runners who were on base when he left the game scored? I expect 16-20 wins from him, depending on who the Mets sign for their bullpen. He'll lose some wins because of blown saves and blown holds.

He'll also be new to many of the hitters he faces, which (in theory) helps him. Having the Yankees in the league definitely hurt him, and it's pretty well recorded that (during his career) he's fared worse against the Yankees than any other team. I took the liberty of calculating Pedro's 2004 stats if you remove his 2004 Yankees starts (against whom he was 1-2 in 4 GS) and his stats against NL teams:

TOTAL:
Ws: 16, IP: 217.0, Ks: 227, ERA: 3.90, WHIP: 1.17

WITHOUT YANKEES:
Ws: 15, IP: 191, Ks: 203, ERA: 3.68, WHIP: 1.15

Not hugely different, but the 3.68 says to me that Pedro isn't a 3.90 ERA pitcher out of the AL East. He's better.

But here's what's really interesting. Small sample size, but in his four regular season starts against NL teams, he went 2-1 with 21 Ks in 28 IP, an ERA of 1.93 and a WHIP of 0.86. Sexy.

So to put my rep on the line and taking an average of trends, past performance, and gut feeling: I project him at 18 wins, 215 Ks, 2.55 ERA, and a 1.02 WHIP, if he stays healthy. I give him a grade of 'C' for injury risk. And I predict zero saves. :-D Needless to say, if he's there in the second round, he'll be on my fantasy team.

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 10:18 am
by trevisc
don't forget that Pedro tied his career high in HRs given up (26) and also almost tied the most runs he's ever given up (99). Those are bound to go down because of the park he'll be pitching in and also he'll be facing pitchers now instead of DH.

I expect a decent rebound from pedro that includes a sub 3 era and a below 1 whip not to mention 220+ ks

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 12:53 pm
by redsox588
if i were you..i'd check out pedro's numbers minus the orioles...they were his "daddy" more then the yanks were thats for sure

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:55 pm
by The Thrill
Statistically, just looking at some pitchers that went from the AL to NL, you have to almost feel assured that he'll post better numbers. Seems like many posted either career-like numbers or at least better than avg (for their career) numbers.

Randy Johnson at age 35 was a phenom when traded to Houston.
Clemens at age 42 in Houston,
Al Leiter at age 31,
Mark Redman at age 29,
even Jose Lima at age 25 & then again at age 32.
They all did quite well transitioning.

Colon did mediocre and Milton didn't do so hot.

I would think Pedro should have a very good year. Especially next year, his first year back in the NL.

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 2:03 pm
by Scott Boras Client
He'll have what, 6-7 starts against the Marlins and Nationals? That's good for 5 w's. The best offense in the division, Philly, might only rank 4th in the AL East. So that will sure help.

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 3:07 pm
by Secret Avatar
Sorry, but all the empirical calculations in the world can't shake my skepticism that the dramatic drop-off in his performance in 2004 was a sign of further decline to come. That, together with his age and all the medical reports about his bad shoulder, gives me pause on the guy. I think he'll do fine on the Mets, but I think his dominant days are over.

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 3:17 pm
by DK
Secret Avatar wrote:Sorry, but all the empirical calculations in the world can't shake my skepticism that the dramatic drop-off in his performance in 2004 was a sign of further decline to come. That, together with his age and all the medical reports about his bad shoulder, gives me pause on the guy. I think he'll do fine on the Mets, but I think his dominant days are over.


I've given up arguing this. Go to the "Pedro is a Met" thread. That's all I can say without passing out from statistical exhaustion.

PostPosted: Thu Jan 06, 2005 3:22 pm
by yanksareback2
I think Pedro can post at least a 3.20 era without a problem.
Everyone has to remember he is only 33 and Shea will help out a lot. He had one off year. Wins is another story because no one knows what offensive player the mets are gonna get. It could be beltran Delgado, or others but right now there offense is awful. The two main power threats in the lineup haven't been healthy in years and Reyes hasn't shown that he can stay healthy either even though he is only 21.
K's will probably go up because it is the national league and they haven't seen him in a while. Last year he pitched against 5 NL teams and went 4-0. He was dominant in all of these starts except against San Fran.

Pedro will bounce back in a big way if the mets can score some runs.