### Pedro's Numbers in Shea

Posted:

**Thu Jan 06, 2005 1:03 am**Let's start this discussion with one premise. Pedro of 2004 is the Pedro of the future. Further, for the sake of argument let's try to figure out if Pedro pitched in Shea Stadium in the National League all year, how would his 2004 have turned out? Finally, I don't think Pedro will get much worse and there is a chance he could have a remarkably dramatic improvement. With those things out of the way, onto the numbers.

Primary #s: 33 GS, 217 IP, 193 hits, 61 BB, 227 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.

Secondary #s: K/9 9.42, K:BB 3.72, AVG against .238.

Now, we all know Pedro moved from the AL to the NL, that means no more DH. I'd say, conservatively, you can discount his ratio's by 3% just for the lack of a DH. Yes, it's a rough cut.

But further he moved from the AL East to NL East. So he goes from a tough hitting division to a weak division. Cut another 2.5 % of his ratios. I'll now substantiate those rough cuts by stating that the AL East (not counting the Sawx) scored 3172 runs, the NL East not incluing the Mets, scored 2996. That is a difference of about 5.5%

Now let's go to park factors.

Shea

Runs: .974 HR .80 (lowest in baseball) Hits: 1.03

Fenway

Runs: 1.12 HR: .974 Hits: 1.10

Before continuing, I must metioned that Pedro allowed 26 HR last year which is far higher than his career norm. In Shea, according to park factors, he will allow 20% less HR, which is 5 less HR. Even shaving 5 solo HR off of last season would give Pedro an ERA of 3.69.

OK, look, it's late I'm tired, at a certain point I got lost, and one huge flaw in my logic of park factor is that they only play 81 games at Shea. But I think my bottom line is that if Pedro pitched EXACTLY the same season this year as he did this year, except in the NL and Shea. I would conservatively put his numbers at 3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 240 K (throw him an extra 13 K because of pitchers), and because he's on the Mets, we'll give him 14-15 wins. Even if he improves slightly on last season, Pedro could be dominating in Shea.

Then again, his arm could fall off, and his owners, fantasy and real, would be screwed.

Thoughts?

Primary #s: 33 GS, 217 IP, 193 hits, 61 BB, 227 K, 3.90 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.

Secondary #s: K/9 9.42, K:BB 3.72, AVG against .238.

Now, we all know Pedro moved from the AL to the NL, that means no more DH. I'd say, conservatively, you can discount his ratio's by 3% just for the lack of a DH. Yes, it's a rough cut.

But further he moved from the AL East to NL East. So he goes from a tough hitting division to a weak division. Cut another 2.5 % of his ratios. I'll now substantiate those rough cuts by stating that the AL East (not counting the Sawx) scored 3172 runs, the NL East not incluing the Mets, scored 2996. That is a difference of about 5.5%

Now let's go to park factors.

Shea

Runs: .974 HR .80 (lowest in baseball) Hits: 1.03

Fenway

Runs: 1.12 HR: .974 Hits: 1.10

Before continuing, I must metioned that Pedro allowed 26 HR last year which is far higher than his career norm. In Shea, according to park factors, he will allow 20% less HR, which is 5 less HR. Even shaving 5 solo HR off of last season would give Pedro an ERA of 3.69.

OK, look, it's late I'm tired, at a certain point I got lost, and one huge flaw in my logic of park factor is that they only play 81 games at Shea. But I think my bottom line is that if Pedro pitched EXACTLY the same season this year as he did this year, except in the NL and Shea. I would conservatively put his numbers at 3.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 240 K (throw him an extra 13 K because of pitchers), and because he's on the Mets, we'll give him 14-15 wins. Even if he improves slightly on last season, Pedro could be dominating in Shea.

Then again, his arm could fall off, and his owners, fantasy and real, would be screwed.

Thoughts?