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Carlos Beltran

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Postby Rirruto » Thu Jan 06, 2005 3:37 pm

Oh yeah, and he's only 27, his best years are still ahead of him.
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Postby acsguitar » Thu Jan 06, 2005 6:04 pm

I agree he is overrated thats why I traded him for RJ
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Jan 06, 2005 6:10 pm

DK wrote:
CubsFan7724 wrote:Did you see what he did in the postseason?


Last I checked the postseason didn't count in fantasy.


Neither does last year's regular season. They're all games, and all games should be considered. Of course it's only a small sample size but you can't just ignore it.

Anyway I've been saying Beltran will be the best fantasy player if he goes to the Yanks, and possibly if he goes elsewhere.... but I'm not sure about the Mets. I don't think he's over-rated in general. SB's are under-rated and he's not far behind the big boys in the other cats either, except for BA, which I wouldn't be surprised to see above .290 next year. The 50 or so SB's I figure he'll get puts him above everybody else IMO.
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Postby J35J » Thu Jan 06, 2005 7:03 pm

Though I do like Abreu, the reason I think everyone is a little more shy about him is that he has four seasons in his 7 year career(playing full time) where he hit no more than 20 hr, and these aren't just at the beginnging of his career, they're spread out through his career which makes him a little up and down from year to year. And he will be 32 when the season starts compared to Beltrans 27. He is still a first rounder I just don't think I would have him above Beltran.

And last year was his first in three years that he hit more than 20hr

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Postby stumpak » Thu Jan 06, 2005 7:06 pm

Beltran is clearly superb. But I agree that he is still a bit overrated. Abreu on the other hand is typically underrated.

What this analysis is missing is that both these guys will be playing for new managers this year (well OK their is a chance that Beltran could still be playing for Garner) and that SB production is the statistic most variable to particular style of teams their respective teams and managers. With Bowa and Garner and before him Pena, these guys always had managers who gave the greelight a lot. Who knows where Randolph stands on this but Manuel is not know as someone who likes to run a lot, so odds are we will a dimunition small or large in the SB production of these two, which will hurt overall value.
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Postby RynMan » Thu Jan 06, 2005 7:13 pm

I dont think a potential 40/40 guy is something you can pass over too easily in fantasy. A top 5 pick for sure. And that .265 is uncharacteriscally low for him. If he goes to Shea, I would be a little more cautious however. If he stay in Houston, I will take him with my number 1 pick.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Jan 06, 2005 7:17 pm

Good point, stumpak. I'll add another observation on steals: they become very situational for high-priced talent. Sure, Beltran will get the green light to steal if its the end of the game and the score is close, or if the game is must-win. But for a garbage-time inning, or where there's otherwise not much to gain, do you really think any manager is gonna have their $100M stud go for a steal and risk injury for nothing? Not a chance.

Beltran's hitting stats aren't that great so a lot of his fantasy value is based on steals. So even a modest decline in steals (let's say to 30) will have a significant impact on his fantasy value. If the decline is more drastic, which is unlikely but could happen, his fantasy value will plummet.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Jan 06, 2005 7:22 pm

"And that .265 is uncharacteriscally low for him."

True, but his 38 HR is uncharacteristically high. Coincidence that his BA plummets at the same time his HR total skyrockets? Who knows. But he has not shown the ability to hit for average and power, at least not yet.
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Postby Music2004Man » Thu Jan 06, 2005 7:24 pm

Just a thought I understand your pt on not having your stud stealing a ton of bases because you wouldn't want him to get hurt but ARod stole 28 and Vlad stole about 20 as well. I'm not sure that the big contract will limit how much he runs. The guy has the best success rate ever for SB. A more legitimate concern might be which manager he ends up running for....
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Postby RynMan » Thu Jan 06, 2005 7:28 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:"And that .265 is uncharacteriscally low for him."

True, but his 38 HR is uncharacteristically high. Coincidence that his BA plummets at the same time his HR total skyrockets? Who knows. But he has not shown the ability to hit for average and power, at least not yet.


He has hit for a solid average his entire career, and I think he has the discipline at the plate to keep it up. And is there any doubt that this guy can hit 35+ HR again? Did you see this guys stroke during the postseason? He has one of the sweetest swings that I think I have seen for a while.
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