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Abreu vs. Manny

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Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:15 pm

"It means he allows singles instead of doubles."

At a statistically higher rate than any other pitcher in the history of baseball, including his own performance in 2003?! I seriously doubt it. Dude, you are arguing against basic mathematics. You're gonna lose.
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:21 pm

davidmarver wrote:It means he allows singles instead of doubles.

Right but like Jackal said above this may or may not be something he has control of. I wouldn't draft him banking on the fact that he'd be able to continue that.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Jan 25, 2005 8:30 pm

That might be true. My point is that having an ERA of 2.27 with a WHIP of 1.20 is mathematically abnormal, and anyone who bets on a repeat is gonna be disappointed. It'd be like winning the lottery twice.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:07 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:That might be true. My point is that having an ERA of 2.27 with a WHIP of 1.20 is mathematically abnormal, and anyone who bets on a repeat is gonna be disappointed. It'd be like winning the lottery twice.


How can you possibly say it is like winning the lottery twice?

Jake Peavy is great with runners on. With RISP with two outs, opponents hit .109 against him, .185 with RISP in general. You can allow as many runners into scoring position as your want, but if you hold your opponents to steller numbers like that, you'll see low ERA's forever.
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Postby IronMarshal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:10 pm

tlef316 wrote:i like manny better. i expect abreu to return to around his 2003 stats(.300, 20 HR, 101 RBI, 99 runs, 22 Sbs) he may do a little better than that, but i think 2004 was a career year. manny gives you more production in 4/5 cats. I would never use a top 15 pick on abreu just to get 30-40 sbs. you can get them elsewhere for a much lower pick.


Abreu is playing in a power hitters park now. Don't expect the power stats to fall. He has been a fairly consistant fantasy player. He also stole a ton of bases last year while starting the season overwieght. With a new manager, he may not have the green light as much now, so those SB stats could fall. Additionally, as he gets older, he will slow down on the steals in all likelihood, however for the next three years his steals will be a function of managerial edict rather than speed issues. Abreu is fantasy gold as in Ramirez. In a 4x4 league, Abreu is better. 5X5 they are closer.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:11 pm

If you want to ignore the evidence feel free, but I'm telling you it was a fluke that his ERA was below 2.75.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:11 pm

Secret Avatar wrote:That might be true. My point is that having an ERA of 2.27 with a WHIP of 1.20 is mathematically abnormal, and anyone who bets on a repeat is gonna be disappointed. It'd be like winning the lottery twice.


And furthermore, Carlos Zambrano had a WHIP of 1.22 and an era of 2.75. If you took the average scores of games at Wrigley and Petco, there'd be a difference of at least one run. You divide that into 1/2 a run for each team and that accounts for the difference between Zambrano's and Peavy's ERA.
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Postby LBJackal » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:14 pm

davidmarver wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:That might be true. My point is that having an ERA of 2.27 with a WHIP of 1.20 is mathematically abnormal, and anyone who bets on a repeat is gonna be disappointed. It'd be like winning the lottery twice.


And furthermore, Carlos Zambrano had a WHIP of 1.22 and an era of 2.75. If you took the average scores of games at Wrigley and Petco, there'd be a difference of at least one run. You divide that into 1/2 a run for each team and that accounts for the difference between Zambrano's and Peavy's ERA.


What does Zambrano have to do with this? He was lucky last year too if that's what you mean... his 2.75 ERA should have been more like 2.91 but just because Peavy wasn't the only lucky one doesn't mean it will continue.
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Postby davidmarver » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:16 pm

LBJackal wrote:
davidmarver wrote:
Secret Avatar wrote:That might be true. My point is that having an ERA of 2.27 with a WHIP of 1.20 is mathematically abnormal, and anyone who bets on a repeat is gonna be disappointed. It'd be like winning the lottery twice.


And furthermore, Carlos Zambrano had a WHIP of 1.22 and an era of 2.75. If you took the average scores of games at Wrigley and Petco, there'd be a difference of at least one run. You divide that into 1/2 a run for each team and that accounts for the difference between Zambrano's and Peavy's ERA.


What does Zambrano have to do with this? He was lucky last year too if that's what you mean... his 2.75 ERA should have been more like 2.91 but just because Peavy wasn't the only lucky one doesn't mean it will continue.


Doesn't mean it will stop either.

And how come when a pitcher is good with RISP it is considered luck, but when a batter's RBI's are up and people point out his AVG with RISP, it's a valid point. It makes no sense.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Jan 25, 2005 9:19 pm

Dude, I've said what I had to say about a 2.27 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP. You can try to explain it away all you want, but the fact remains that it's a statistically abnormal. NEVER bet against the math. You'll lose every time in the long run.
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