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My #1 sleeper of the year = Shawn Green

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Postby slomo007 » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:03 am

Absolutely Adequate wrote:Warrick -

you make some good points - Green did look lost at the plate for the first half of the year, certainly - but he looked much better the second half. His OPS went from .734 to .900. He hit 8 more homers in 30 less at-bats.

And I don't think Arizona's lineup is that bad. Hillenbrand is a good hitter. Glaus is a pretty good threat. Terrero could develop into a 5-tool threat. Gonzo is trash. They aren't the Yankees, but they're not bad, really.

If you double his numbers from the second half last year, he'll hit .282 with 36 homers, 96 runs, 90 rbis, and 6 stolen bases. But in the BOB, I expect a little more than that, really.


AA, Hillenbrand is in Toronto now.

I agree with what many others have said already, Shawn Green is not even on my radar. He is actually being valued very high by some people, and I value him very, very low so there's no way I'll end up with him...thank goodness.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:04 am

BTW, Green's career stats in Coors Field are horrible. 250 BA, 781 OPS. Man, better hope he doesn't get traded there! And it's in 45 career games spread out over 5 seasons to ensure accuracy. So it must be true.
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Postby davidmarver » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:10 am

The sample would actually be the number of series he has played there. Anything over n=15 is considered enough in statistics and he's right there.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:12 am

davidmarver wrote:The sample would actually be the number of series he has played there. Anything over n=15 is considered enough in statistics and he's right there.


Did you pick n=15 out of thin air, or do you have evidence to suggest it's the right point to draw the line? If so then we really better hope he doesn't get traded to Colorado ;-7
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Postby davidmarver » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:30 am

Type in statistics in a google search with something like "population mean sample size" or something around that in. You'll find most sources note that a sample size needs to be 15 or 20. My book says 15. It's not out of thin air.
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Postby RynMan » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:40 am

:-?

I would have thought that it is has to consider the context that the statistic is used within.
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Postby bselig » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:40 am

Look...Sean Green isn't the third best first baseman. We all know that, even the guy that suggested he is. And I'd proceed with caution when classifying him as a "value pick"...first base is a talent laden position, and you might be able to grab young outfielders that are going to put up better numbers than Green and be more useful to you positionwise (if you are in a league that uses LF, CF, RF) even later than he'll be taken.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:40 am

I've taken stats classes in University... 44 games is not a good indicator of how he'll do. Using your "15 series" theory, he could have had 1 AB in each of those 15 series and it would still be statistically significant. The pitchers he faced could have been Casey Fossum and Andrew Good, or RJ and Schilling. There are WAY too many variables to consider 44 games significant.

Make a projection based on Dodger Stadium, look at the park factors for lefties in B.O.B., compare them to Dodger Stadium, adjust them, and factor in lineup change. There ya go.
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Postby HOOTIE » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:56 am

AA have you taken up drinking? :-?



Ok, j/k. i will buy Green probably slides farther in draft then he should. But better then Thome? Delgado?Tex? Ortiz? No way.

One thing you can't do is add .16 points to his career 282 average. He got that average being a much better hitter then he is now. The BOB will help, but Green is still not the same guy he was his early LA years.

DAVID, 175 abs is a small sample size. You can't put too much into it.
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Postby prose749 » Mon Feb 07, 2005 4:59 am

There is obviously a flaw in this, if his #'s in COL are that bad. Statistics and projections aren't my strong suits but I'll take my chances on other options. I always hear that you should look at career or 3yr stats for a better prediction on a player. I just think that leaves to many diff variables to be real accurate. Age,injury,diff pitchers,diff lineup,diff hitting streaks at the time of evaluation and I'm sure plenty others. For whatever reason his #'s in Coors suck and it's really hard to explain why. I think he will post similiar or slightly better #'s this yr and will finish ranked around 10th at first.
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