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HR vs SB

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HR vs SB

Postby RynMan » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:07 pm

Ok guys, let me ask you something.
The past week or two I have started a couple of threads and read a bit on projections and equations that can calculate value. As I have been using equations to calculate a players approximate ranking (by position), I have boiled it down to one very significant question. Which is more valuable: 1 HR or 1 SB?

1 HR also gives you a hit (for BA), 1 R, and at least 1 RBI.
1 SB only gives you one SB, but they are considerably rarer.

I used the Lahman Database to see how often each category occured in 04, and the steal was easily the highest, with the HR following.

As I said in another thread a minute ago, I ran my projections through an equation that took into account the scarcity of each of the categories in 2004, and my rankings were soo heavily weighted towards base stealers, it wasnt funny. Guys like Rowand, Patterson, Podsednik all appeared much higher than I would have expected.

So what do you guys think? Is a steal worth more, less, or the same as the homerun?

Any comments welcome!
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Postby gtech4life » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:15 pm

i say a HR is still more valuable because even though SB are scarcer than HR SB is still just one category while as u said a HR contributes to 4 categories
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Postby Tavish » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:31 pm

SB are more valuable, but it is a category that is much easier to draft-to-win. Getting a token 5 steals out of a player will usually mean more in the standings than getting a player who hits a token 5 HR.
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Postby Amazinz » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:34 pm

I agree with Tavish. Also, a HR is a HR. Don't take into account the fact that it gives you an H, R and RBI also because you're already evaluating the player based on those categories seperately.
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Postby George_Foreman » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:39 pm

Both Tavish and Amazinz are right here. SBs are scarcer and harder to find off waivers. You pretty much need to draft your SBs or trade for them later. generally, they're undervalued, so take them when you can. ;-)
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:43 pm

I somewhat agree but disagree. Yes, a homerun adds to 4 categories, while the SB does not. But a guy who hits 30HR, has 105R, 100RBI, 0SB is not as helpful as the player who hits 10HR, 105R, 60RBI, 30+SB. If a guy hits homeruns, it does add to 4 categories but what does it matter if the base stealer scored more runs in the longrun. So the question is if a SB is worth about 3x more than a HR and a quite a few RBI throughout the season. I would say that the SB is rare enough that it becomes more valuable throughout the season. Many people undervalue the basestealer during drafts later to regret it a few weeks into the season. If you can get 2 30+ basestealers on your team, you pretty much have that category locked up in H2H competition, which a HUGE advantage. Players like Corey Patterson and Aaron Rowand are going to be higher on my draft list than others because they contribute in every category. I undervalued the SB last year, it wont happen again.
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Postby The Jury » Mon Feb 07, 2005 11:21 pm

Cleveland Steamers wrote:I somewhat agree but disagree. Yes, a homerun adds to 4 categories, while the SB does not. But a guy who hits 30HR, has 105R, 100RBI, 0SB is not as helpful as the player who hits 10HR, 105R, 60RBI, 30+SB. If a guy hits homeruns, it does add to 4 categories but what does it matter if the base stealer scored more runs in the longrun. So the question is if a SB is worth about 3x more than a HR and a quite a few RBI throughout the season. I would say that the SB is rare enough that it becomes more valuable throughout the season. Many people undervalue the basestealer during drafts later to regret it a few weeks into the season. If you can get 2 30+ basestealers on your team, you pretty much have that category locked up in H2H competition, which a HUGE advantage. Players like Corey Patterson and Aaron Rowand are going to be higher on my draft list than others because they contribute in every category. I undervalued the SB last year, it wont happen again.


I'm not sold on base stealers being more valuable than sluggers in H2H. The sacrifice that you make by toning down the power for a couple runners in your starting lineup may win you the category, but there's a good chance you'll suffer in HR and RBI.
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Postby Cleveland Steamers » Mon Feb 07, 2005 11:44 pm

I didnt mean to load up on baserunners. Im in a 14 man H2H league is why i said I will be looking toward Patterson and Rowand. Normally I would try and get a running 2b or SS and one decent running OFer. If I can get Rollins and Patterson, Im in decent shape every week. I am not one of the guys that would draft Crawford in the first round.
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Feb 07, 2005 11:54 pm

Amazinz wrote:I agree with Tavish. Also, a HR is a HR. Don't take into account the fact that it gives you an H, R and RBI also because you're already evaluating the player based on those categories seperately.


This is what I was going to say... a HR only helps in HR's. The RBI, R, and BA are counted separately, you can't give credit to the player twice for the same thing. SB's are a lot more valuable than HR's. I'm not sure of the exact value, and I'm sure it varies depending on who you talk to, but converting Beltran's SB's into HR's and adding them to the HR's he already gets he would be well over 100 HR probably. This is what people don't realize because they think SB's don't matter much.
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Postby xeifrank » Tue Feb 08, 2005 12:01 am

Your question title is a little misleading because as you state a HR also accounts for 1 run and atleast 1 RBI and a little bit towards the batting average. You should have asked what's more important (1 HR, 1 Run, 1+ RBIs) or a SB. But if you are just looking at the SB vs HR raw numbers, not taking into account what comes along with a HR and a SB then you have to find out how many HRs will on average win the HR category and how many SBs on average will win the SB category and what percent of that total is 1 HR or 1 SB. In that sense a single SB is more valuable than a single HR, not taking into account the other stuff that comes along with it. But like i mentioned earlier a better comparison is the SB vs HR, Run, RBI+. I'd have to run the numbers.

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