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Who[i] should[/i] go #1?...

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Postby LBJackal » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:15 am

wrveres wrote:It amazes me that you continue to downgrade everything Arod does (BA, SB) His road BA has been right around .280 or less his entire time in Texas, why would it all of a sudden shoot to .300 in NY, a pitcher's park? As for the SB's, nobody knows but I doubt he gets to 20. even though he hits right smack in the middle of the most prolific offense in baseball, and in the most slanted divsion in baseball. But in turn, upgrade everything Beltran does, even though he will now be playing in the toughest divsion in baseball, and is switching to a hitters park. He's switching to a MUCH better park. Houston and Kauffman are horrible for lefties; amongst the worst in baseball for HR's (30th and 27th, respectively). Shea is above average for BA, and close to neutral for HR's. Look at Beltran's road stats from last year and then tell me what I put down for him is exaggerating. He hit .305 with 23 HR's on the road, is moving to a park that inflates BA for lefties, and I'm exaggerating by giving him .285 and 35 :-?


But I'll agree with you on one thing, we'll look at this in October. I guarantee Beltran will have done a lot better than A-Rod. And A-Rod, if picked at #1 overall, will be a waste of a pick.
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:17 am

Correction: Pujols was 2nd last year behind RJ.
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Postby wrveres » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:18 am

HOOTIE wrote:Wouldn't the best pick, be the player who earns the most in 5x5 roto? Pujols was 1st last year, and in the last 3 years, his 3 year value earned is 1st.


you can make an agruement for Pujols being 1st, sure.
I'll take Arod and his SB's at 3B ... everytime.

Rolen/Pujols
HR 77.5
R 221.5
RBI 233
SB 10
BA 0.316
$ 60.75
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Postby wrveres » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:21 am

HOOTIE wrote:Correction: Pujols was 2nd last year behind RJ.


so does that mean you would take RJ with the first pick?
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:22 am

You keep bringing in these Rolen/Cabrera/Anonymous 3B or 1B combined stats. Let's just compare the two players. And wr, I really suggest looking at road splits and not just totals... A-Rod was inflated big time by hitting in Arlington, and Beltran took a big hit by playing his home games in MM Park and Kauffman.
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Postby wrveres » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:29 am

LBJackal wrote:You keep bringing in these Rolen/Cabrera/ 3B or 1B combined stats. Let's just compare the two players. And wr, I really suggest looking at road splits and not just totals... A-Rod was inflated big time by hitting in Arlington, and Beltran took a big hit by playing his home games in MM Park and Kauffman.


Anonymous ..

I continue to show you .... that your fantasy team would be better off going into the 3rd round drafting Arod and then an OF, vs. either Vlad, Pujols, Beltran and then Rolen in the 2nd ...

sorry you can't see that.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:34 am

wrveres wrote:
LBJackal wrote:You keep bringing in these Rolen/Cabrera/ 3B or 1B combined stats. Let's just compare the two players. And wr, I really suggest looking at road splits and not just totals... A-Rod was inflated big time by hitting in Arlington, and Beltran took a big hit by playing his home games in MM Park and Kauffman.


Anonymous ..

I continue to show you .... that your fantasy team would be better off going into the 3rd round drafting Arod and then an OF, vs. either Vlad, Pujols, Beltran and then Rolen in the 2nd ...

sorry you can't see that.


I see your position scarcity argument... but why would I be forced to draft a 3B in the 2nd or 3rd round? I couldn't wait and get Mora? Lowell? Huff? I have to have Rolen? Would I have only 2 players on my team? You're beating around the bush. The two positions are very similar in depth. Compare the two players in question. Even if, all else equal, 3B's are more valuable, Beltran is still a ton better than A-Rod. So are Pujols and Vlad.
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Postby HOOTIE » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:46 am

wrveres wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:Correction: Pujols was 2nd last year behind RJ.


so does that mean you would take RJ with the first pick?


In a keeper no. In a non keeper, I'm up in the air with either Pujols or RJ. H2H probably RJ. Roto Pujols.

If Arod was a ss, and still in Texas, he would be my #1 easy.

You are basing this on Arod stealing 25 bases. In his career he's been all over the board for sb (low 9). I think it's 50/50 he steals 20.

The combos you are showing work in a perfect world, but no draft ever goes perfect, so you really can't say you will get that at the other position.

LBJ, to be fair, Beltran is a switch hitter, and you are omitting that Shea is terrible on RHB for hrs. Plus, RHB in Minute Maid had a big hr index. And Kauffmans 3 years hr index is big both sides of plate. Sheas 3 year run idex was 96 to Kauffmans 130. Now i know Kauffman went more neutral last year, but Beltran still enjoyed the indexes before that. Going to Shea hurts him.
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:52 am

Kauffman didn't go neutral, both LHB and RHB park factors shot down sharply to near the worst in the league for hitters. Given that the LHB/RHB splits, as well as the pithcing runs and hitting runs were both consistent in showing the decline of Kauffman, using stats pre-2004 would be pointless. It's adifferent park, you might as well use Camden's park stats for pre-2004 instead of Kauffman's.

And yes, I know Beltran bats righty sometimes, but not nearly as often. Kauffman killed him from both sides of the plate, and MMP killed him from the left side of the plate (70+% of his AB's come as a lefty). I'd say palying in Shea will help him a lot as opposed to where he played last year, I don't think there's any evidence to dispute that.
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Postby wrveres » Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:28 am

LBJackal wrote:Kauffman didn't go neutral, both LHB and RHB park factors shot down sharply to near the worst in the league for hitters. Given that the LHB/RHB splits, as well as the pithcing runs and hitting runs were both consistent in showing the decline of Kauffman, using stats pre-2004 would be pointless. It's adifferent park, you might as well use Camden's park stats for pre-2004 instead of Kauffman's.

And yes, I know Beltran bats righty sometimes, but not nearly as often. Kauffman killed him from both sides of the plate, and MMP killed him from the left side of the plate (70+% of his AB's come as a lefty). I'd say palying in Shea will help him a lot as opposed to where he played last year, I don't think there's any evidence to dispute that.


you continue to forget one thing.
Beltran is not in the AL/NL central anymore.
He is in the NL East. A much tougher division.
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