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Who[i] should[/i] go #1?...

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Postby lesgrant » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:27 pm

LBJackal wrote:A-Rod: .285, 45 HR's, 120 R's, 115 RBI's, 20 SB's
Beltran: .285, 35 HR's, 125 R's, 120 RBI's, 45 SB's

I think that's more than fair for each of them (IMO I'm being generous to A-Rod in BA and SB's, and docking Beltran some HR's he should get, but I don't want you complaining). Breaking that down, the only category A-Rod wins is HR, by 10. Beltran has him by a huge margin in SB's (those 20+ extra SB's are worth about as much as A-Rod's 45 HR's by themself), and he has a slight advantage in both R's and RBI's as well. Please explain where I'm off in my projections, and how in the world A-Rod is even close to being as valuable as Beltran.


I think Arod will be somewhere between .290-.300 this season by virtue of his lineup and the Yankee adjustment factor.

And the over/under for your bet should be lower given that Jackal has said he’s being “generous” projecting A-rod @ .285.

20 SBs is a reasonable projection for Arod. Torre will give him an open ended green light, as he did last year. And given that Steinbrenner has Arod off-leash, I would expect him to play much more aggressively, especially on the bases.

The Beltran figures are optimistic, given the Shea factor. I could never take any hitter #1 that plays in Shea in a borderline batting order. Injuries (Floyd, Piazza, Reyes) and the unpredictability of youth (Wright, Reyes, Matsui) could leave Carlos as the only heavy bat in the lineup.

Beltran @ #1 is more of a gamble than Arod @ #1.
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Postby mojowitt » Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:43 pm

8-o Ooookay......so, that topic went well. I guess we know where LBJakal and wrveres stand. It didnt really address the Vlad vs.Pujols issue, but it sure was fun to read...
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Postby LBJackal » Wed Feb 09, 2005 2:04 pm

lesgrant wrote:
LBJackal wrote:A-Rod: .285, 45 HR's, 120 R's, 115 RBI's, 20 SB's
Beltran: .285, 35 HR's, 125 R's, 120 RBI's, 45 SB's

I think that's more than fair for each of them (IMO I'm being generous to A-Rod in BA and SB's, and docking Beltran some HR's he should get, but I don't want you complaining). Breaking that down, the only category A-Rod wins is HR, by 10. Beltran has him by a huge margin in SB's (those 20+ extra SB's are worth about as much as A-Rod's 45 HR's by themself), and he has a slight advantage in both R's and RBI's as well. Please explain where I'm off in my projections, and how in the world A-Rod is even close to being as valuable as Beltran.


I think Arod will be somewhere between .290-.300 this season by virtue of his lineup and the Yankee adjustment factor.

And the over/under for your bet should be lower given that Jackal has said he’s being “generous” projecting A-rod @ .285.

20 SBs is a reasonable projection for Arod. Torre will give him an open ended green light, as he did last year. And given that Steinbrenner has Arod off-leash, I would expect him to play much more aggressively, especially on the bases.

The Beltran figures are optimistic, given the Shea factor. I could never take any hitter #1 that plays in Shea in a borderline batting order. Injuries (Floyd, Piazza, Reyes) and the unpredictability of youth (Wright, Reyes, Matsui) could leave Carlos as the only heavy bat in the lineup.

Beltran @ #1 is more of a gamble than Arod @ #1.


Not to start another argument here, since I'm sure everybody knows what I think of each player, but A-Rod is a .280 hitter, not a .300 hitter. I don't know where you guys get .300 from. Forget about Arlington. Forget about his time with Seattle, that was 5+ years ago. Does playing for the Yankees mean his BA will jump 15-20 points? That's some Yankee Factor.

As for Shea, it has a positive Park Factor for lefties in terms of BA. Overall it's a pitchers' park mostly because it hurts righties so much. Their lineup isn't great, but neither was Houston's or KC's, and he seemed to do fine there.

And I guess the O/U should have been .2875 since that's in between our projections, but he suggested .290 so I'm not going to complain about it.
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Postby wrveres » Thu Jun 30, 2005 2:16 am

I know its only half way through the season, but I would be remiss Mr Jackal if I didn't remind you of our $100.00 bet.
I allready peeled 5.00 off of Mookie, when he caved in and realized that Chad Cordero would be worth more than Mota ... but this one is not quite done, yet I still intend to collect.

Today is June 30th, Tomorrow July 1st.
Its not quite halfway, since the Yankees have only played 77 games, but its close enough.

You should also know that Mr. Rodriguez's is current batting .329, and would need to bat .264 from now till the end of the season to reach .295, and that is assuming of course, he plays every game.

wrveres wrote:oh you wanna bet cash? 8-o

sure.. 100.00 ;-D


LBJackal wrote:Done. No backing down now.

And if I lose, I'm paying in Canadian cash :-b but you won't need to worry about that anyway.


Just one Question though ...


LBJackal wrote:
wrveres wrote:It amazes me that you continue to downgrade everything Arod does (BA, SB) His road BA has been right around .280 or less his entire time in Texas, why would it all of a sudden shoot to .300 in NY, a pitcher's park? As for the SB's, nobody knows but I doubt he gets to 20. even though he hits right smack in the middle of the most prolific offense in baseball, and in the most slanted divsion in baseball. But in turn, upgrade everything Beltran does, even though he will now be playing in the toughest divsion in baseball, and is switching to a hitters park. He's switching to a MUCH better park. Houston and Kauffman are horrible for lefties; amongst the worst in baseball for HR's (30th and 27th, respectively). Shea is above average for BA, and close to neutral for HR's. Look at Beltran's road stats from last year and then tell me what I put down for him is exaggerating. He hit .305 with 23 HR's on the road, is moving to a park that inflates BA for lefties, and I'm exaggerating by giving him .285 and 35 :-?


But I'll agree with you on one thing, we'll look at this in October. I guarantee Beltran will have done a lot better than A-Rod. And A-Rod, if picked at #1 overall, will be a waste of a pick.


Hows your Beltran guy doing? O:-)
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Postby wrveres » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:34 pm

<pre>
Arod AB's Hits AVG.
Current 464 148 0.3190
Needed 136 29 0.2132
Total 600 177 0.2950
</pre>

anybody seen this LBJ guy?
He is going to owe me money, and I'd hate to send Mookie after him. That could/would get ugly. ;-7


LBJ .. I can't see Arod going .213 from now till the end of the season. He was 3 for 4 today. I am going to start a countdown in your honor ala Loaiza.

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Postby blankman » Tue Aug 23, 2005 12:39 am

LBJ's been adamantly wrong on more predictions than anyone. I had way too many arguments with him about Beltran, Alex and Loaiza to remember %-6

I had Alex at #2 behind only Pujols, Beltran not even top 3.

Someone could look up the exact numbers, but I think I had Alex pegged at: .300-.305 42 120-130. ;-D

Especially funny is LBJ's stance that Alex would suffer because of Yankee Stadium. He hits over .370 there, the best Home batting average in baseball, and he has over half his HR's there. :-)
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Postby orange12 » Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:16 am

Wow this is one very entertaining thread. Now I can go to sleep happy knowing Arod's really a .280 hitter... :*)
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Aug 23, 2005 8:24 am

wrveres wrote:anybody seen this LBJ guy?
He is going to owe me money, and I'd hate to send Mookie after him. That could/would get ugly. ;-7

Good luck with that. He has all but disappeared in the 2 leagues I'm in with him. :-t :-t
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Postby Mookie4ever » Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:04 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
wrveres wrote:anybody seen this LBJ guy?
He is going to owe me money, and I'd hate to send Mookie after him. That could/would get ugly. ;-7

Good luck with that. He has all but disappeared in the 2 leagues I'm in with him. :-t :-t


I'm sure that we can get in touch with him if need be. }:-)

At the least, if he welches on a bet we can make sure that he doesn't come back here.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:33 am

LBJ also predicted that Sean Casey would outperform David Ortiz this year... :-D
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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