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Crawfords over rated

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Postby Ender » Sun Feb 27, 2005 12:48 am

Yeah he's overrated. I don't think he's a first round pick myself but he certainly isn't a top 6 pick and I've seen him go that high in more than one draft. I'd put him at an early 2nd round pick myself.
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Postby looptid » Sun Feb 27, 2005 4:37 am

He will best Ichiro this season. If people are responding to Crawford being taken in the first round, I totally agree he is overrated. But I could justify a second round pick. Certainly a third rounder.

People need to do a little more research when they compare Crawford to Ichiro and Pierre. Just because they all steal bases does not mean they are the same type of player. Crawford is the youngest of that odd grouping by years. He was only 22 years old last season. He is going to improve.

It's a fairly safe bet that his average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage all rise this season. Most 22 year olds aren't even sniffing the major leagues. I doubt he has peaked.

Another thing that most people aren't aware of is Carl's frame. He's 6'2" and 220 pounds. That is most definately not Ichiro-Pierre territory. The Devil Rays are very confident he will continue to develop his power with that build.

His isolated power was twice that of either Ichiro's or Pierre's last season (those two are just singles hitters). Ichiro only had two extra base hits in September. Crawford had 45 (on the season compared to Ichiro's 37) as a 22-year old.
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Postby WittyC » Sun Feb 27, 2005 6:36 am

Crawford's still got enough holes in his swing that will keep him out of the 20+ homer range without a significant drop in his average. A drop in average equals lower OBP, which equals less chances to steal. So if he did put up 20 homers, I'd see him hitting closer to .270 and swiping 40 bags, which would put him at mid-to-late second round in my book.

It's a classic tug-of-war that most guys can't figure out til they get a little more experience. Crawford could be a 40-40 guy, but look for it in 3-4 years, not in 2005.

You gotta like the kid though, has anyone ever read the bio on him? Guess he was offered scholarships to play quarterback at Nebraska and basketball at UCLA. That's pretty legit.
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Postby Garry26 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:40 am

Crawford is equally valuable in either format. Hes Pierre / Podsednik type that will bat for average, steal 50-60 bases, and score runs. Hes definately not a hr hitter.

Crawford is way over rated this year. He is not a 1st round pick. While its true that grabbing Crawford, Pierre, or Podsednik ensures you dont have to worry about SBs, thats not worth a 1st round pick. Niether of these players will post good HR or RBI totals. A 1st round pick should contribute to at least 4 categories.

If youre in a yahoo league, look at the "ALL AVAILABLE PLAYERS / ALL BATTERS" page. Remove Crawford, Pierre, Ichiro, and Pierre. Id take the rest of the players on that page 1st before taking a Pierre type player.
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Postby Fool42 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:43 am

Crawford is another Beltran in the making only with a better BA. As someone else said it won't be this that he develpos 40 hr type power but it should happen in a few years. I project 20 hrs this year out of him and a few less triples which should keep his SB's about the same.
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Postby CubsFan7724 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 9:51 am

All the early round steal artists are overrated because people panic and want to secure steals for themselves, so they overpay for these guys. You can put together a nice competitive base of steals in later rounds. But if you can get Crawford in the 2nd, I think hes worth it. He'll only get better.
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Postby FatGuyWithAMullet » Sun Feb 27, 2005 10:22 am

I can't believe there are people who genuinely believe Crawford is going to develop 40 HR power.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Sun Feb 27, 2005 12:59 pm

I think 40-40 is a real stretch. Most guys with that sort of power/speed combo show it off at a young age (ARod, Beltran, etc.). I do believe Crawford will continue to develop power. He's obviously a big guy and a helluva athlethe. He's still got some kinks to work out on his swing and plate discipline. I think he could make a run at 20 HR in 2005 while still grabbing 50+ steals. If he can do that, while maintaining a 300 BA, he may be one of the top 5 most valuable players in fantasy.
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