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How Would You Rank These SP?

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Postby Tribe-Fan » Sun Feb 27, 2005 11:37 am

Vaz gets no love on here. Good. I like that. Hopefully he will continue to be a public whipping boy and he will drop in the draft, where I can get him cheaply.

The guy has a bad 1/2 a season and he all of a sudden drops in value. His pre-break numbers last year were 10-5, 95 K, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 Whip. Then he fell apart. If it was an injury then there could still be trouble. But if it was just a bad patch, can he rebound back to 2003 levels? I would take those numbers.

This is a case where public perception is helpful, because it has been my experience that when the public is all going one way, the other way is usually right.

For this season:
Mussina
Vaz
Clemens
Beckett
Harden

For those that are surprised I have Harden so low, 2 words, Brandon Webb, the guy that 1 year ago today was the can't miss guy. I do think Harden will have a much better year then Webb had last year, and actually my rankings for Clemens / Beckett / Harden are very close and almost interchangable, but he is still a young guy that will most likely struggle at least a little.
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Postby gtabaplayr1 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 12:01 pm

[quote="Tribe-Fan"]Vaz gets no love on here. Good. I like that. Hopefully he will continue to be a public whipping boy and he will drop in the draft, where I can get him cheaply.

The guy has a bad 1/2 a season and he all of a sudden drops in value. His pre-break numbers last year were 10-5, 95 K, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 Whip. Then he fell apart. If it was an injury then there could still be trouble. But if it was just a bad patch, can he rebound back to 2003 levels? I would take those numbers.

This is a case where public perception is helpful, because it has been my experience that when the public is all going one way, the other way is usually right.

For this season:
Mussina
Vaz
Clemens
Beckett
Harden

For those that are surprised I have Harden so low, 2 words, Brandon Webb, the guy that 1 year ago today was the can't miss guy. I do think Harden will have a much better year then Webb had last year, and actually my rankings for Clemens / Beckett / Harden are very close and almost interchangable, but he is still a young guy that will most likely struggle at least a little.[/quote]


Dude. Obviously Vaz drops because he is pitching for a far less superiour team, even with the addition of Glaus and Green. And guys like Harden who had a good year with 13 no descisions bumps ahead of Webb. Both are good pitchers; however, Harden has a higher ceiling which he showed much of last year with 11 wins despite all of the blown ones, he could be an elite one no one discussed Webb in that category a year ago. Webb will be similar to a Livan Hernandez type this year(not the complete games), always descent numbers but never get any sort of run support. Vaz will be in the same exact situation except he will get more K's.

Harden
Beckett
Clemens
Mussina
Vaz

Thats how I would take then in a draft. Beckett can be a dominant SO pitcher when he is healthy so i think its worth the risk especially in the rounds where there is alot of uncertainty.
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Postby Rico The Retard » Sun Feb 27, 2005 12:20 pm

For this season

Clemens
Harden
Mussina
Beckett
Vazquez
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Postby Tribe-Fan » Sun Feb 27, 2005 12:34 pm

gtabaplayr1 wrote: Harden has a higher ceiling which he showed much of last year with 11 wins despite all of the blown ones, he could be an elite one no one discussed Webb in that category a year ago.


Check out these threads from this time last year. This was just a quick search, but there were a ton more.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... light=webb

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... light=webb

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... &&start=15

The last 2 debate the merits of Santana vs. Webb. Many cafe regulars had Webb over Santana at this time last year, which just goes to prove my point about public perception. I try to remember these things and take lessons from them.

This may be the single biggest trap fantasy players, especially newer players, fall into, buying into the conventional thinking. It's like all those posts you see bashing people's rankings...."did you see X's rankings, they suck. I can't beleive he had player X so high!" How does anyone know if rankings are good before the season even starts? By the posts I read, many would be happy if all the rankings were the same. Open minds my friends, open minds win titles.
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re

Postby aardvarks » Sun Feb 27, 2005 1:06 pm

For this year I like:

Clemens,
Harden,
Moose,
Beckett,
Vazquez
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Postby gtabaplayr1 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:26 pm

Tribes-Fan I looked through those posts and I saw most people takign Santana and no one though Webb had good strikeout potential like Harden has. Not really sure how that helps out your case, there are maybe a few posts that thought webb has the next big thing, but i had him in my league his rookie year and knew that all he was was a solid pitcher who will post good numbers but not get the wins.
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Re: How Would You Rank These SP?

Postby Lime » Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:04 pm

Harden

Beckett
Clemens
Vazquez

Mussina
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Postby Amazinz » Sun Feb 27, 2005 5:08 pm

Clemens
.
.
Harden
Vazquez
Mussina
Beckett
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
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Postby mtarail » Sun Feb 27, 2005 6:55 pm

It's really interesting to see how much this list varies amongst people who know what they're talking about. I've got 'em ranked:

Clemens
Mussina
Harden
Beckett
Vazquez

Deciding between Harden and Beckett was tough.
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Postby Half Massed » Sun Feb 27, 2005 7:25 pm

I'm thinking along the lines of:

Harden: he'll improve on last year, which was his first full season and he had great second half numbers.
Beckett: he and harden are real close, but the reason harden wins is less injury risk and also more consistancy, although the marlins have an improved offense, so its a coin flip.
Clemens: all the questions of age and a worse offense drops clemens to here, although he could easily prove me wrong.
Mussina: he'll probably be healthier this year, was good towards the end of last year, and is on an improved yankee staff, but the injury risk and the fact he's just not as good as he was makes him fourth.
Vasquez: i think he'll bounce back now that he's in the NL again. he is on a bad team, but was good for the expos, a similarly bad team. he'll pick it up but not to the level of the other guys.
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